Daily Fantasy Saturday: Leafs Matchup Better Than Expected?

Stephen Dotzel

2022-02-19

We've arrived at one of the best stretches of the season to play NHL DFS. Not necessarily because of the NHL schedule or the team's matchups, but it's the NBA All-Star break. While you might be wondering how that has any effect on NHL DFS, and rightfully so, the truth of the matter is that the fantasy sites typically jack up the NHL contests for this stretch assuming some of the NBA DFS players will trickle over to NHL to keep themselves busy.

This has already proved true as DraftKings' Friday NHL Forecheck Contest ($4 entry, 20 entries max) which is always $2,000 or less to 1st place, was up to $5,000 for 1st place on Friday. The same is again true for Saturday's contest. Granted the contest size is bigger, so theoretically it will be harder to win, however if those extra entries are people that typically focus on NBA and are out of their element in the NHL world, well maybe that's not so bad for us normal NHL grinders. Either way, the bottom line is more money is going to be paid out in NHL contests this week than a normal week and that is never a bad thing.

Now if you fall into the "NBA player trying their hand at NHL because there's nothing else to do" group and you just stumbled across this article, my "NHL for Dummies" advice is pretty simple:

Shots and correlation are king.

Roster players who shoot the puck often and build your lineups with correlation between players, so when a player scores you have the added potential of picking up points for assists. This would mean stacking your lineups with two, three, even four players from either the same team line or same team power play unit, or a combination of the two.

Now that you know how to build your lineups, that just leaves the hard part: landing on the right team and line/unit. There are two resources available here to help with that. The first are the suggestions I'm going to lay out in the rest of this article, and the second is our DraftKings DFS Player Evaluator over in the Frozen Tools. I'd consult both before building.

Enough talk – let's get into the plays. We've got a miniature slate once again for this Saturday with just five games but we have to play the hand we're dealt so we'll make the best of it. All prices are from DraftKings but plays can be applied to any site.

Primary Stacks

Calgary – The Flames are running on all cylinders right now and just added Tyler Toffoli to give them another scoring punch. Over their last eight games on home ice Calgary is a perfect 8-0-0 and have outscored their opponents 41-11. Individually, the top line of Johnny Gaudreau ($7,900), Matthew Tkachuk ($6,800), and Elias Lindholm ($7,400) have done the majority of the damage accounting for 15 of the 41 goals during this stretch and kicking in another 28 assists. The matchup against Seattle tonight is nothing to fear as they've allowed 5-6-3-5 goals over their last four games. Fire up that top line once again tonight and you can also add in a defenseman such as Rasmus Andersson ($5,600) or Oliver Kylington ($4,400).  

Toronto – I think the obvious second choice on this slate for stacks is Boston, but I'm going to hope the Blues stick Jordan Binnington in-between the pipes tonight so I can play what should be an underowned Maple Leafs team in a 'better than meets the eye' spot. If it's Ville Husso in net instead, well I'll probably shift to Boston; however, Binnington has been absolutely dreadful of late.  How bad? In his last three starts Binnington has allowed 5-7-6 goals. Oof. Going back further, he's allowed four or more goals in five of his last six and three or more goals in 12 of his last 15. So what I'm trying to say is I think it's a pretty safe bet the Maple Leafs are going to score at least three goals in this one, so we just need to land on the right guys. Luckily, they have someone named Auston Matthews ($9,300) who is pretty good at scoring goals. Matthews and Mitch Marner ($7,800) are my preferred stacking options with Michael Bunting ($4,500) as a solid third option who joins them on the first line. You can also consider William Nylander ($5,800) who sees power-play time with the duo and is due for some positive goal regression.

I won't completely abandon the Leafs here if Husso is net, certainly the Leafs can score on anyone especially at home, but I will play a few less than if it were Binnington.

Secondary Stacks

Vancouver – While not on a back-to-back, the Ducks will be playing their third road game in four nights here. After chasing the aforementioned Flames around on Wednesday and then Connor McDavid and friends on Thursday, and allowing 13 goals in those two games I might add, Anaheim might just be ready to mail in this road trip. That would be good news for the Canucks who have won three of four. Look at the top line here of J.T. Miller ($5,900), Brock Boeser ($5,400), and Bo Horvat ($4,700) and also consider swapping in Quinn Hughes ($5,000) who is fresh off returning from the Covid list.

Arizona – It doesn't feel great recommending the Coyotes in a fantasy article, but targeting teams on road-road back to backs are my favorite spot to go to and the Coyotes opponent tonight, the Kings, are the only team that fits the mold on this slate. The Clayton Keller ($6,200) and Nick Schmaltz ($2,700) top line duo has been serviceable of late with four goals and two assists between them over the past two games, so that's where I'll go.

Los Angeles – The other side of that game will be the more popular side, as picking on the Coyotes has been a successful strategy all year long. The Kings top line of Anze Kopitar ($6,900), Alex Iafallo ($5,500), and Adrian Kempe ($5,000) are reasonably priced and are fully correlated on the power play which should make them one of the most owned, and best, stacks on the slate.

Here a few others stacks to look at for your lineups:

Mikael Backlund ($4,200), Blake Coleman ($4,200), Andrew Mangiapane ($4,400)

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Phillip Danault ($5,000), Viktor Arvidsson ($6,100), Trevor Moore ($4,300)

Cheap Power Play 1 Plugs

C – Alexander Wennberg ($2,700), Ivan Barbashev ($2,800), Sean Monahan ($3,100)

W – Sonny Milano ($3,000), Alex Formenton ($3,100), Lawson Crouse ($3,300)

D – Erik Brannstrom ($2,700), Quinn Hughes ($5,000), Hampus Lindholm ($5,100)

Goalie Picks

Jacob Markstrom ($8,500)

Thatcher Demko ($7,500)

Linus Ullmark ($8,100)

Karel Vejmelka ($7,200)

Jack Campbell ($8,000)

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real-time. You can also reach out to me personally and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 25 - 19:04 T.B vs FLA
Apr 25 - 19:04 NYI vs CAR

Starting Goalies

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AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
ALEC MARTINEZ VGK
ELIAS PETTERSSON VAN
ZACH HYMAN EDM
JACK EICHEL VGK

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THATCHER DEMKO VAN
STUART SKINNER EDM
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
ILYA SAMSONOV TOR
JOEL HOFER STL

LINE COMBOS

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23.6 RICKARD RAKELL EVGENI MALKIN MICHAEL BUNTING
22.6 BRYAN RUST DREW O'CONNOR SIDNEY CROSBY
17.2 JESSE PULJUJARVI JANSEN HARKINS JEFF CARTER

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