Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. Frozen Tools Forensics writer Chris Kane profiled 4th Year Breakout players in his article this week. The most prominent name on that list is Andrei Svechnikov, who is over the point-per-game mark (47 PTS in 45 GP) for the first time in his career.

We haven’t had to wait that long for Svechnikov to blossom. He has scored 20 goals three times in his career, and he even came close to a point-per-game in the shortened 2019-20 season (61 PTS in 68 GP). He’s already keeping quite the company with what he’s accomplished so far.

@StatsCentre : Most career goals by a Russian-born NHL’er before their 22nd birthday:
108- Ilya Kovalchuk
98- Alex Ovechkin
9- Pavel Bure
81- Andrei Svechnikov
80- Evgeni Malkin
69- Sergei Samsonov
51- Alexei Yashin

Still with the Canes: Frederik Andersen has not had a really bad start since November 30. (Leafs fans may remember that he had a bunch of them last season, particularly in March.) Since that last RBS, Freddie has a record of 15-2-2 with a 2.15 GAA and .926 SV%. His quality start percentage (52.6%) could be higher, but there aren’t many better options if you need a win. He is currently tied with Andrei Vasilevskiy for the league lead in in that category (26). (feb19)

2. Mats Zuccarello continues his unbelievable run. Over his last 13 games, Zuccarello has 10 multipoint games. Certain players seem to find great chemistry with another player, and that’s what’s happening with Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov. Those two players have been glued to the hip (literally, not figuratively, because they’re actually skating all over the ice) both on evens and the power play. Over that multipoint stretch, Zuccarello has piled up 23 points in 13 games. I wasn’t a big fan of the Zuccarello signing when it happened (AAV $6 million), but it seems to be paying off right now.

Kaprizov isn’t doing so badly himself right now. Since December 20 he has 28 points in 16 games. He’s also vaulted his way into the top 10 in NHL scoring (61 points in 45 games). (feb19)

3. Under Dominique Ducharme in 2021-22, Cole Caufield scored just one goal in 30 games. Under Martin St. Louis, Caufield has four goals in four games, including his game-tying and game-winning goals on Thursday. The obvious take would be to assume that the 5-8 St. Louis would have a soft spot for the 5-7 Caufield, but a sudden increase in Caufield’s ice time did not happen right away. After averaging between 13-14 minutes in his first two games under MSL, Caufield was bumped up to 18 minutes on Sunday before logging a season-high 21 minutes on Thursday.

Caufield was a Calder Trophy frontrunner entering the season, thanks to impressive late-season play and the Habs’ playoff run last season. Although it’s probably too late to consider him a rookie of the year favorite, it’s not too late to revisit adding Caufield to your fantasy team. After being drafted in practically every Yahoo league, his rostership has sunk to just 24 percent. I’d expect that number to climb over the next few days. [Fantasy Take: Montreal Replaces Ducharme with St. Louis] (feb18)

4. The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for February! Check out the rankings here.

Although many players fell out of the rankings due to the reduction of players in COVID protocol, Patrik Laine was one addition to those rankings. Laine recorded a hat trick on Thursday, giving him an eight-game point streak in which he has 10 goals and 16 points. Laine has also scored multiple goals in four of his last seven games. Remember that scoring goals is nothing new for Laine, as he has nine career hat tricks. It seems like he’s been in the league a long time (six seasons to be exact), yet he is still only 23. As far as his fantasy value plummeted last season, it has been rocketing back up recently. I wrote about Laine’s comeback season in more detail in last weekend’s Ramblings. (feb18)

5. When I write about the Capitals, I often focus on the usual names. Here, it’s about two lesser-known players that have been making noise.

With a power-play goal on Thursday, Joe Snively has four goals in his last four games. In his brief NHL career, he has seven points in nine games following a point-per-game pace in the AHL (38 points in 35 games) before his callup. He’s already 26, so the “now or never” description of him in the Prospects Report seems applicable. Obviously, he won’t keep up this goal pace with a season-long 25.0 SH%, but he’s been receiving even-strength minutes with Tom Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom as well as second-unit power-play time. For more on Snively, see his Dobber Prospects profile. (feb18)

6. Scoring-wise, banger extraordinaire Garnet Hathaway seems to be a Tom Wilson-lite with 10 goals in 47 games. Hits-wise, he’s taken over the Capitals’ lead over Wilson with 162 hits (compared to Wilson’s 142 hits). Only four players in the league have more hits than Hathaway, and he’s already matched his career high with 19 points. Because his scoring hasn’t been terrible, Hathaway (15% rostered in Yahoo, 25% in Fantrax) is worth rostering in bangers leagues. (feb18)

7. Timo Meier filled the statsheet on Thursday, scoring a pair of power-play goals with an assist and eight shots on goal and a pair of hits. He also finished the game with a minus-2… hey, that’s a Draisaitl Hat Trick! And a whopper of one at that with the multiple goals and the multiple negative minus! Meier entered the game with no points in his last four games.

A big part of Meier’s bounceback this season is the fact that his ice time is up because Bob Boughner is trusting him more, as pointed out by John Garrett on the Canucks broadcast. Meier’s overall ice time is up nearly three minutes per game (16:04 to 18:47), while his power-play time has increased nearly a minute (1:44 to 2:27). Meier has certainly earned that increase in responsibility, and he’s done everything possible to retain it. (feb18)

8. Claude Giroux announced he is going to discuss his future with Philadelphia Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher. The 34-year-old center is a free agent after the season and the Flyers are not making the playoffs. This is going to be a talk about trade vs. finish the season vs. extension. I am not Giroux, nor do I know him well, so it’s tough to say what is going to happen here.

It should be said that he still has a lot left in the tank, at least at this moment – Evolving Hockey has him with offensive and defensive impacts near or over a standard deviation above average this year. He is averaging a four-year high in goals per game which help balances out the drop in assists because of the problems this team has had. He can play multiple forward positions and that is something coaches will always covet.

Whatever happens here, we should talk a minute to appreciate one of the better forwards of the cap era. He sits with 895 career points and that makes it seem likely he’ll crack 1000 if he plays a few more years. He was always a huge part of that Philadelphia roster whether it was during a Cup run or when the team was in the lottery. In the fantasy realm, he had a 93-point season back in 2011-12, maxed with 102 points in 2017-18, and passed 80 points on a couple of other occasions. He only cracked the 30-goal mark once – he could get there this year with a decent hot streak perhaps – but he once had a season with 25 goals, 73 points, 110 hits, over three shots per game, and over 1000 face-off wins. The number of centers who can do all that is not very long.

If he does get traded, I would like to see him go to Colorado. They have a great roster but adding that one extra piece helps give them a much better third line, as well as some injury insurance. I am not an Avalanche fan but they are a lot of fun to watch and it’d be great to see them make a deep run. It isn’t as if they don’t have all the pieces to make it work, even if they are short on draft picks in 2022. (feb17)

9. It was a brutal blow for the players and the Sens when both Josh Norris and Drake Batherson were injured so close together in time. This is a very fun team to watch – in a different way from Colorado, but still fun – and they don’t have the depth to lose two-thirds of their top line. His 82-game pace on the season is for 40 goals but that’s also with a shooting percentage near 20%. I don’t have any doubt he can sustain a high percentage but 18-19% may be a bit much. Reports state that Norris has resumed skating. (feb17)

10. Jack Eichel being back in action for Vegas is the return of a potential top-10 player both in real terms and in fantasy, so let’s take a dive. (Go here for a more in-depth analysis)

He hasn’t played this season and played 21 games in 2020-21. For that we have to go back to earlier seasons, which is a reminder of how long it’s been since we’ve seen him in top form. The shortened 2021 season didn’t provide much, the Sabres missed the postseason each of the last two seasons, and COVID ended the 2019-20 campaign about three weeks shy of two years ago. It has been that long since we’ve seen Eichel in anything close to his true top form.

Eichel had good linemates in Buffalo, like Sam Reinhart and Jeff Skinner, but the Sabres never had a blue line like the Golden Knights do. All three pairs can move the puck, and that’s important to being able to generate offense regularly. A healthy Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone is also among the best winger pairs in the league. If everything lines up right, Eichel will be in an extremely fortuitous position.

For now, he just needs to show he’s healthy and can play his top-line minutes. He needs to develop some chemistry with Pacioretty and get to the postseason. I am really excited for this team to have a full camp and then a full year next year. Of course, that is all going to be previewed by a (hopeful) Cup fun. Enjoy the ride. (feb17)

11. Eichel's return makes me wonder about Shea Theodore‘s new future. His 82-game pace over the last three seasons works out to 59 points. By no means is that poor production, but given how good the team is, and his offensive capabilities, it always feels like there could be more, right?

This is where the power play improvements could matter a lot. He has 10 PPPs in 44 games this year, which isn’t what we want from a top-tier fantasy option. He paces out to about 20 PPPs every 82 games these last three seasons, which again is very good, but always feels like there could be more. There are 10 d-men with 15 PPPs already this year, and there could be as many as a half-dozen with 20+ by the end of the month, or ~50 games played. That is the level we want to see him as a fantasy asset, and if Eichel can’t help in that regard, it’s a wonder when it will come.

There will always be things missing from his fantasy profile. He will always be missing hits or PIMs, but if he can start pushing past 70 points every season for the next few years, it’ll really soften the blow.  There is a lot riding on Eichel’s integration into Vegas, and just one of those things is Theodore reaching his true fantasy upside. We will get a nice glimpse into the future over these final 30-plus games. (feb17)

12. Congrats to Sidney Crosby for scoring his 500^th career goal. It’s a shame that we were robbed of three of his prime seasons, but even without that he has become one of the best players ever. It’s great that he is healthy again, and he should continue to be a dominant player (and fantasy asset) for a handful of years yet. With three cups already though, I do wonder when he just decides to hang up the skates, and take his accolades and his health off into the sunset. (feb16)

13. Kelly McCrimmon resolutely refuted the rumour that Vegas was interested in re-acquiring Marc-Andre Fleury due to the possible season-ending injury for Robin Lehner. That means Fleury is still on the market, and while he could still end up in Vegas (or Colorado) it’s not a given that he does get moved to a contender. Aside from the Avalanche and the Golden Knights, there aren’t a lot of contenders who find themselves looking at their goaltending as a position of need.

At the moment, Fleury has a negative GSAA, though to some extent we can blame that on the team in front of him, which has been disappointing, especially in the defensive end. We saw last year that he can still put up Vezina like numbers on the right team, so as long as you’re not in a cap league, it may be a worthwhile gamble to acquire Fleury with the hope of his situation improving by the deadline. Worst case is you’re getting a goalie with a 2.88 GAA and a 0.910 save percentage. Don’t pay much more than what you would for those kinds of numbers. (feb16)

14. Erik Cernak, back from injury this past week, is one of my favourite multi-category fantasy gems, and he’s still flying under the radar even three years after he became an NHL regular. He is one of the few players that regularly puts up a combined 6.5 shots (1.9), hits (3.1), and blocks (1.5) per game. Finding players like that to stuff the peripherals on your fantasy team is extremely difficult. (feb16)

15. There was a very significant trade on Monday as Tyler Toffoli was traded to the Calgary Flames. Going the other way is Tyler Pitlick, a first-round pick, a fifth-round pick, and prospect Emil Heineman. His Dobber Prospects profile can be viewed here. Dobber wrote about the trade yesterday and readers can check out his column here.

For my opinion, while I can see Toffoli going to the top PP unit, there’s one thing that’s nagging in the back of my head. It’s the fact that Sean Monahan has been on the top unit basically all season, with the team rarely using Andrew Mangiapane instead. I don’t understand why Toffoli would get pushed right to the top PP unit – especially when this very coach infrequently used him on the top power play in Los Angeles – with Mangiapane never getting an extended look. Maybe they do just go right to the new option but as someone with 'Bread Boy' on a couple fantasy rosters, it would be a tough pill to swallow. (feb15)

16. As the resident Habs fan, this feels like a light return. Toffoli’s 82-game pace this year is 20 goals and nearly 60 points in a season where his team is last in goals scored per minute. Before that, he had 34 goals in 62 regular season games between Vancouver and Montreal. He is a great offensive player and is no slouch defensively. He is also signed for two more years at just $4.25M per season. Pitlick is for salary purposes and the fifth-round pick doesn’t have much value.

This is basically 2 ½ years of Toffoli at a well-below-market contract for a late first rounder and a non-top prospect. I would have rather Montreal eat some salary, tell the Flames to keep the prospect and picks, and get a better prospect. Draft capital is great but I’ve also been a Habs fan long enough to not get excited about them stocking draft picks. Also, what was the rush to do this deal? Do they think this is the absolute most they could ever get for him in the next 13 months? If so, I guess it’s fine. I do think this seems a bit fast to pull a deal like this together.

Toffoli should thrive in Calgary, fantasy-wise. He should be rostered in every league, too. He is going to look great on that second line. I do wonder if this means the end of the Flames tenure for one of Gaudreau or Tkachuk this summer? (feb15)

17. Quite simply, Jack Hughes has to be one of the more interesting players in the NHL. All his micro-stats scream Perennial All-Star but he had just 59 points in his last 85 regular season games entering last Tuesday action. It is one thing to have wonderful micro-stats, but if they don’t translate to monster fantasy success, we don’t care very much, do we?

Well, one thing he’s doing a lot more lately is shooting. Since the holidays, he’s top-20 among all forwards in shot rate per 60 minutes (again, as of last Tuesday). There are still a lot of pieces that need to come together for him to take the next step in the fantasy game, like Alexander Holtz showing up next year and starts scoring. A line of Holtz-Hughes-Jesper Bratt could be very good for Hughes’ fantasy profile.

But those are the pieces that need to come together for fantasy stardom: he needs to be an elite player (he probably is), he needs an excellent shot rate (he will if this persists), and he needs great linemates. The profile is starting to come together. (feb15)

18. Jeff Skinner is a passenger. He needs chemistry with a good player in order to post fantasy-worthy points. He had that with Jack Eichel for a half-season, and then lost it. It appears that he has chemistry with two big boys in Tage Thompson (6-7) and Alex Tuch  (6-4). Right now, everybody underrates Skinner (including yours truly), but I can’t help but think that if this line stays healthy (always a risk when we’re talking about Tuch), Skinner could finally repeat his great numbers for a second year. I can’t believe he’s still only 29.

19. When it comes to goalies, I stick firmly to this rule: Elite goalies become fantasy relevant over the course of an entire season at age 23, no earlier.

Examples of this in the modern area are restricted only to Carey Price, Marc-Andre Fleury and Andrej Vasilevskiy. No others. Philadelphia tried to push Carter Hart into the role at age 20 and it nearly ruined him. Now Hart is finally doing okay and he’s – you guessed it – 23. But is he helping a fantasy team this year with a 9-16-5 record? Not much. But at least now Hart looks promising enough to get there at age 24. Hell, even the Penguins rushed Fleury at 21, but he was 23 before his numbers helped fantasy owners (instead of hurt them).

There are no exceptions to this rule. Even if a goalie is somehow good enough, after seeing Philly nearly ruin their Golden Boy and watching Washington maybe do the same to their Golden Boy (Ilya Samsonov.), no team in their right mind is going to rush their stud. This means that Spencer Knight, 20, is a safe bet to not be the starter in Florida until at best 2025-26. This means that Jesper Wallstedt, 19, is a safe bet to not be a starter in Minnesota until 2026-27. This means that Yaroslav Askarov, 19, is a safe bet to not be a starter in Nashville until 2026-27. Stop dreaming otherwise! The best you can hope for is that these future studs will be as great for fantasy hockey as Vasilevskiy. I believe Igor Shesterkin would have fallen into this category had he crossed the ocean two years earlier. (For more, follow the link by clicking here…) 

20. On Nazem Kadri: Yes, it’s a contract year. And of course he won’t repeat this. But the reality is – only about four players in the entire league could repeat something like this. He’s on a 113-point pace! The fact is, if he slows to a 60-point pace the rest of the way, he ends the season with 88 points. And an unrestricted free agent who just had 88 points is going to sign for something north of $8M AAV. And if a team has an $8M player on their roster, you can damn well be certain that he will have the two best forwards on the team to play with and well over 2:30 in PP time each game. In that situation, Kadri is probably a safe bet to exceed 70 points in 2022-23, no matter what team he plays on.

21. Do you have a burning question about your fantasy team or players in general?  Rick Roos' mailbag column is the perfect place to get the answer(s) you're looking for.  If you want to get your question (or questions – posing more than one is fine) to him for inclusion in the column, you can do so by (1) private messaging "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) emailing [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line. (feb16)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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