Ramblings: Updates on Norris, Hagelin, and Toews; Reviewing Preseason Predictions – March 3

Michael Clifford

2022-03-03

There wasn't a lot of significant NHL news yesterday so it may be a good time to take a look back on things. This time, let's look at some preseason predictions, how they've gone so far, and whether the ones that haven't panned out have any hope of doing so over the next couple of months.

For the predictions, I will stick with my own because there's no sense kicking down someone else's predictions; I have plenty of stupid ones to make fun of just by myself. These predictions were spread out across several Ramblings, and I've listed a few of them here: one about my own projections and how they differ from Yahoo's pre-draft rankings here; a discussion on best balls and guys outside the top-50 picks here; some thoughts on forwards drafted outside the top-50 here like Max Comtois, Drake Batherson, Oliver Bjorkstrand, and more.

With all that out of the way, let's start easy and review some predictions that did work themselves out.

Shayne Gostisbehere

Among those articles listed above, I talked about how Gostisbehere was likely much better towards the end of his run in Philadelphia than he was given credit for. Also mentioned was how he could take some PP time in a 3F/2D setup (that didn't really happen, but nevertheless) and get to the 40-point mark. Yes, even skating for that awful Arizona team. That made him a lottery ticket worth taking regardless of fantasy format.

On the season, Gostisbehere had 31 points in 53 games, and that works out to 48 points over a full season. His team is honestly bad enough that those final nine points over the rest of the season are not a sure thing by any stretch. Even if he doesn't get there, Ghost has shown why the Flyers made a mistake in dumping his contract and how he can be valuable for teams and for fantasy players.

Kevin Fiala

The movie 'Moneyball' features a famous scene where Brad Pitt's character asks Jonah Hill's character if he really believes in this thing (meaning baseball analytics). That is where Fiala fantasy owners found themselves after the first 25 games of the season. He had three goals (three!) in the first 25 games of the campaign, totalling just 15 points. It was horrific. And then it wasn't.

Over his last 26 games, Fiala has 14 goals and 29 points. That gives him 44 points in 51 games on the season, with his 82-game paces working out like this: 27 goals, 71 points, 259 shots, 13 PPPs. My upside for him this season was 30 goals, 60 points, 250 shots, and 15 PPPs. The final 31 games of the season will give us his final fantasy ranking, but Fiala has shown what he can do offensively. The only thing keeping him from fantasy stardom is consistent top line/top PP roles.

J.T. Miller

While part of this was because of the offseason contract issue with Elias Pettersson, but I had Miller well ahead of Pettersson in 82-game projections anyway. The reason for that was Pettersson does not hit and Miller does. A lot. That has persisted this year and because of Pettersson's struggles, Miller has blown EP's fantasy value out of the water. In fact, just in general, Miller has been one of the most valuable players in hits leagues on the season, let alone much more valuable than the young Swede.

It is a question of how much value Miller could add, or lose, if he gets traded by Vancouver. Regardless of what happens, he's been great so far this year and anyone that drafted him is reaping huge rewards.

But enough of the hits, everyone wants the misses so here are some preseason predictions that just will not come to fruition.

Travis Konecny

Not only was I wrong about Travis Konecny, but I was just really wrong about the Flyers in general. I had hopes that a healthy Kevin Hayes and Sean Couturier, a revamped blue line (including Ryan Ellis), and a rebounding Carter Hart would be enough to lift the Flyers in the East. I thought they could be a playoff team and if it all broke right, a Cup contender. They are none of those things.

We cannot fault Hayes given what has happened in his personal life and Sean Couturier was playing injured before his back surgery. Ellis has been a non-factor and that means the rest of the blue line doesn't really matter because he was supposed to be an anchor, along with Ivan Provorov.

On the season, a season I thought Konecny would push for 30 goals and 100 hits, Konecny has eight goals. I think it's safe to say he's going to fall a bit short of the lofty goals I had for him. How much of it is on the player and how much of it is just being in an awful situation, well, that's for the offseason. But this is a bust unless he goes absolutely supernova over the final eight weeks.

Jordan Binnington

Having a goalie here might not seem fair because, well, GOALIES. But I did draft Jordan Binnington a lot this year in best ball leagues, and whew boy that did not work out. On the season, he's rocking a .904 save percentage and has all but lost his starting role to Ville Husso. It has not been a good season for him and his fantasy owners.

This wasn't for no reason, either. From 2018-2021, Binnington was top-5 in the league in high-danger save percentage, one indicator of goalie talent. The guys ahead of him were Ben Bishop, Pekka Rinne, and Jaroslav Halak. With the Blues looking to turn things around defensively because of a healthy lineup, I thought Binnington would have a very good year. He very much has not.

Maybe this corrects itself, but I think it would take a giant flip between he and Husso to do it and time is running out. This one is another 'X'.

Max Comtois

I suppose having a guy that was typically a flier isn't really fair but I was very, very high on Comtois. I thought for sure this would be the year for his breakout, alongside veterans getting healthy and some rookies taking a step forward. It has been more of the same for Comtois, though, as his production has been, at best, inconsistent, and he's been a healthy scratch at times. The 20-goal, 125-hit winger I envisioned is nowhere to be found.

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Not sure what happens next but there are trade rumours swirling. Sometimes, a player just needs a change (Robby Fabbri, the aforementioned Gostisbehere) to get their career going again. Maybe that's what happens here.

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Given that he's dealing with concussions, it means he's on his own timeline, but more good news as Bowen Byram was skating with an Avs coach:

Again, there is no telling when he returns but this is just good news. Let's hope there's more good news over the coming months.

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Anthony Mantha was on the second line in practice but…

So there is a bit of a caveat there but it's not often a player takes part in practice with his normal line mates and then the team says he's still a month away. Anything can happen, but it does really seem as if he's inching closer to the inevitable return.

This is probably the last chance to check waiver wires to see if he was dropped during the season. Remember he got a fair bit of top PP run instead of Evgeny Kuznetsov when they were both healthy. There could be very good upside here over the next several weeks.

The Caps also said that Carl Hagelin had eye surgery and would be out indefinitely. That is never a good thing and we just wish Hagelin all the best and a speedy recovery.

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A significant update on Josh Norris

He had been pacing for a 40-goal season before the injuries, which kind of speaks to the season he could have next year as this team takes another step forward. Regardless, with Norris back, it's going to likely move one of Colin White or Tim Stuetzle to the wing. They could just stick white on the third line but that seems like a waste of potential talent. They are also paying him a decent chunk of change and Uncle Eugene certainly doesn't like to see dollars go to waste in the bottom-6. Or maybe he does, I have no idea how they're running this team.

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A couple returning players for the Chicago Blackhawks:

It is certainly too late for these players to make an impact on the team this year but they could still be useful for fantasy. My guess is they won't be, given there have been very few useful Chicago forwards this year beyond Kane, DeBrincat, and Hagel (maybe). But I have been surprised before, so keep an eye on the usage here.  

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