Frozen Tools Forensics: Where Are They Now? Goalie Edition

Chris Kane

2022-03-11

Today we look to finish off the "Where Are They Now" mini-series. Last week we checked in on defense, so this week, in our final installment, we are going to turn our attention to goalies.

Frozen Tool Forensics: Where Are They Now? Goalie Edition.

This is also sort of the third installment of a review of streaking goalies. At the start of the season we reviewed a bunch of hot goalies. I was hopeful for Elvis Merzlikins and Freddie Andersen, but not so high on John Gibson, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Craig Anderson. By the time the end of December rolled around we checked in again and still guys like Merzlikins, and Bobrovsky were doing well, and we also reviewed standouts like Jacob Markstrom. We will likely touch on several of these guys again for completion's sake, but there are a few other notables as well.

The following list is pulled from the Big Board report section of Frozen Tools, sorted by quality start percentage. It represents the goalie’s performance in the same time frame as out other skater articles – about six weeks. Side bar: There is a new feature on the reports page that lets you put in a minimum number of games played right in the reporting section. For the purposes of this column I have put games played min of 6.

NameTeamGPWSAGAASV%QS%
SERGEI BOBROVSKYFLA862421.730.94687.5
ELVIS MERZLIKINSCBJ651991.980.9483.3
CAL PETERSENL.A641822.820.90783.3
JUUSE SAROSNSH1163322.280.92581.8
JACK CAMPBELLTOR1273301.90.93675
FREDERIK ANDERSENCAR1092801.740.93970
IGOR SHESTERKINNYR1063462.370.93170
TRISTAN JARRYPIT1053232.230.92970
CRAIG ANDERSONBUF641902.50.92166.7
JONATHAN QUICKL.A842451.980.93562.5

Bobrovsky, Juuse Saros, Frederik Andersen, Igor Shesterkin, Tristan Jarry all more or less fall into the category of, 'yup, still good.' Shesterkin in particular is on pace for a historic season, but all have been relatively strong through the season (turns out I was wrong about Bobrovsky). Obviously there have been small ups and downs, including injuries, for these guys, but I wanted to take a few minutes to spend time on some other players who have seen a more dramatic change in their fortunes. 

Merzlikins started the season with five wins in six games, a .940 save percentage and an 83.3 percent quality start percentage. When I took a look at him in October, I was reasonably optimistic (even if I didn't assume he would keep up a .940 save percentage). Unfortunately. in this case I was also wrong. Not only has he spent time injured, but from the start of December he has played in 24 games, won only ten of them, has a save percentage of .890, and a quality start percentage of 29. It has been slightly worse recently with only a 20 percent quality start percentage since the beginning of February. Moral of this story is that Merzlikins has been hurting you (in save percentage and goals against average) way more than he has been helping you since the beginning of December. J-F Berube (in his brief four game fill-in) seems to be the only goalie in Columbus who has seen any success recently. For Merzlkins, it looks like his special team's save percentages (both power-play and short handed) are lower than usual/they should be. Those play states are so much smaller than even strength that they are more impacted by luck – which means it is possible he will perform better on those going forward (and therefore have a better save percentage) with no other changes in his or the team's play.

Jack Campbell was an absolute revelation to start 21-22. He took over Toronto's crease at the end of 20-21, but with Toronto bringing on Petr Mrazek it was unclear exactly what was going to happen in net. Through this first reporting period he won seven of 12 games, had a .936 save percentage and a 75 percent quality start percentage. He continued that trend through the beginning of December, and we could even say to the beginning of January too, but has since really fallen off a cliff. Mrazek has returned and was essentially splitting starts at this point, so Campbell's games played numbers are down, but even in the games he has played he has been a disaster. In the 13 games since mid-January he has 6 wins, a goals against average of 4.04, a save percentage of .865, and a quality start percentage of 23 percent. His last game with an over .900 save percentage was February 17th. He has been an absolute disaster for managers. There isn't much to be done here (so maybe his injury is a blessing and everyone can stash him), we just have to hope that the rest is what he needs to turn his season around.

Cal Petersen was supposed to be the heir apparent/golden boy in LA. He signed a nice contract and I think hopes were for something like a Campbell start (though admittedly for a team with less fire power so maybe a down notch or two). He was fine-ish, but completely outplayed by Jonathan Quick. Even though Quick only won four of his first eight games, he had a .935 save percentage and a quality start percentage of 62.5. Through December he had more than eight goals saved above average (meaning based on the quality of shots he faced, he saved eight more goals than an average goalie would have). Even through the beginning of January he still boasted a .920 save percentage, and a 56.5 percent quality start number.  From January to now though he has reverted to splitting time with Petersen as his play has significantly dipped. His save percentage has dropped to .875, his quality start number is down to 27.3 percent, and he has let in 10 more goals than the average goalie would have in his position during this time period. To add insult to injury Petersen just got both sides of a back-to-back and put up two quality starts. The moral of this story is that it seems like Petersen is (finally) taking over the crease (like he was supposed to) in LA.

John Gibson isn't on our top ten list above, though he was close, but definitely bears looking at as like a few others on this list he has really fallen off lately. Anaheim really started with a bang and an explosion of offense. It gave Gibson a seven-game win streak from the end of October to the middle of November. In total he had 11 wins in 15 games, a .926 save percentage and a 60 percent quality start number. I wasn't very optimistic in my early season reviews having been burned by his hot starts in other seasons. He had a few ups and downs, but by February he still had a .923 save percentage and a 62.9 percent quality start number (only 17 wins – so 6 wins in the additional 20 games over that time period). Since the beginning of February though the wheels have completely fallen off. He has missed time, only won two of eight games, has an .829 save percentage and a 12.5 quality start percentage. On the season he still has a .907, which just demonstrates how good he was early on. Unfortunately, though for his full season numbers, his short-handed save percentage is still a .918, which is miles above where we can reasonably expect it to land. He likely won't be .829 bad the rest of the way, but it is highly unlikely he reverts back to his early season form. He has basically been a .903 goalie the past two seasons, and that seems a reasonable hope going forward.

That is all for this week

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