Ramblings: Shesterkin’s Struggles; Selling Sorokin; Old Faces in New Places; New Contracts Galore (Mar 23)
Alexander MacLean
2022-03-23
Dobber had you covered all on his own on Monday and did a fantastic job breaking down all the fantasy takes for the relevant deadline deals. You can find all those pieces linked here.
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There were a few signings too, and it sounded like Lou Lamoriello didn't get any deals done, so out of spite he processed two extensions right before 3pm just to jam up the NHL's phone lines. Those two extensions were for Zach Parise at $750K, and Cal Clutterbuck at $1.75 million – both for one year. Careful in cap leagues that count AAV though, as Parise will cost you $1.5M there because of bonuses. Both should be in the bottom half of the lineup though, so neither should be close to your radar.
On that note, it does sound like Lou believes in his current core, and doesn't want to go through a rebuild. Between Ilya Sorokin, Ryan Pulock, Noah Dobson, and Mat Barzal, it's tough to blame him. However, the talent drop off is swift and steep from there, and the reality is that the East is super competitive as it is, not to mention Ottawa growing, New Jersey who should come back next year with a real goalie and be a playoff contender, and Buffalo & Montreal that have looked much better since the mid-season mark.
For that reason, I would be softly looking to sell Ilya Sorokin right now (if your trade deadline hasn't passed) and then definitely let the league know that you will at least listen to offers in the offseason. The performance of Igor Shesterkin is showing everyone that there is a new wave of goaltenders around the league, and being a Russian counterpart, Sorokin gets lumped in with him. However, the Isles are a lesser team, and have a second goalie that soaks up more volume, and Lou just doesn't want to trade Semyon Varlamov, who posted a 24 save shutout last night. All that being said, Sorokin's value is capped right now, and if you can get a package worthy of his eventual ceiling on a team without Lamoriello at the helm or Varlamov riding caboose, then it should be worth your while.
Speaking of Shesterkin, he showed last night that he is human, allowing five goals on 24 shots to the Devils. Dougie Hamilton was back on the top power play unit which looked dangerous, though all five goals against Shesterkin were at even strength. It's only the third time all year that he has allowed more than four goals in a game, most recently being over five months ago now. That being said, he now has 16 goals against over his last five games.
Part of it is the fact that Shesterkin's career high in games played (in any league) is 35 starts, and that was from last year in the NHL, and he is already on start 42 this season. He could be seeing some fatigue set in. The Rangers may rest him a little more down the stretch, so his volume could take a slight hit in trying to keep his rate stats level.
Also relevant is just how good Jack Hughes is, though both of his goals came in the third against Alexandar Georgiev:
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Some other quick hits on signings:
Mark Friedman (2yrs @ $775K) – Underrated defenceman, and could be a solid guy to round out your defence next year in the same way Zach Whitecloud and Zdeno Chara have paid dividens this year.
Karel Vejmelka & Anton Forsberg (3yrs @ ~ $2.75M)– Both look to have locked in a fair share of the starts on their respective teams next season with these contracts. Ottawa should be an improved team overall, so Forsberg will likely provide more immediate value. If Vejmelka can get rid of his consistency issues (that takes a lot of time for a goalie) then he provides the higher upside.
Hampus Lindholm (8yrs @ $6.5M) – This is higher than my model has him projected, a little higher than I think he's worth overall, and he's also a player that brings more in real life than to your fantasy lineup. If you own him next year it had better be as one of your later defencemen, and not at all in a cap league.
Jake DeBrusk (2yrs @ $4M) – The Bruins needed to lock up DeBrusk in order to give some cost certainty to other teams that may want to trade him, however no move materialized. There is still some good upside with DeBrusk, but it seems like he needs to go elsewhere to be fully given the proper opportunity, and just to get into the right mindset to really flourish. With the Bruins, it's status quo, but if/when he is traded, we could see a small uptick in production.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi (8yrs @ 4.82M) – After offer-sheeting Kotkaniemi away from the Canadiens, the Canes doubled down on him, locking him up long term at a more reasonable number than his offer-sheet number. This is a great bet for both sides, as the Canes get cost-certainty on a player that hasn't yet peaked, while Kotkaniemi cashes in despite seeming to stall in his development a little more than might be expected from a former third overall selection.
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Andrew Copp was back at centre in his first game with the Rangers after playing most of the last dozen games on the wing in Winnipeg, and he looked at home there, notching two assists in 16 minutes of ice time, to go along with two shots, two hits, and seven faceoff wins.
Sticking with players on new teams, Rickard Rakell was eased into the lineup alongside Jeff Carter and Kasperi Kapanen. If the plan is to lengthen the lineup, and he is only getting third line minutes and opportunities, then his value takes a hit. That being said, he should be a better option than Danton Heinen to lineup alongside Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust. Keep an eye on it, though Mike Sullivan was quoted after the game saying "I don't see him being a left wing with Carter in the big picture."
Nick Leddy played 20 minutes in his Blues debut, going scoreless with just two hits, though he did see over three minutes of power play time with Torey Krug leaving the game early after taking a slash to the wrist area, so there may be a bit of upside there. The Blues also have 11 games over the three H2H playoff weeks (starting Monday).
Marcus Johansson was playing mainly with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov, which is as cushy of a gig as they come. With T.J. Oshie possibly returning from his injury in the next week or so, it's no guarantee he sticks in that spot. At this point he's on pace for his second straight sub-40-point-pace, and fifth straight season pacing for under 45 points. He's a streamer option, but not someone that should be sticking on your roster long.
Nick Paul scored in his Lightning debut, but the Hurricanes skated away with the win. Paul's line with Cirelli and Colton looks to be the new third line in Tampa (Cirelli as the centre). Together the line controlled two thirds of the shot attempts through the game, by far the highest of any Tampa line last night. Brandon Hagel also made his debut, and though the stats weren't noteworthy, the lineup slot was, as he was skating alongside Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat. I prefer Hagel in that spot to Johansson and his slotting opposite Ovechkin, in case that's something anyone is considering in their leagues.
Owen Tippett looks to be settling into Philadelphia well. He doesn't have a point yet through two games, but watching him on the ice, he looks more confident and dangerous. He has four shots through his two games thus far, and game two saw him with three more minutes than game one. To close out the year the coaching staff should be playing the crap out of him as the main piece of the return for Giroux, and he'll see some value come through the volume alone.
The Jets' deadline additions of Mason Appleton and Zach Sanford added some depth to the lineup, though outside of their combined seven hits, they aren't bringing a lot in bottom-six minutes.
Daniel Sprong was out on the second power play unit for the Kraken, though it wouldn't be too surprising to see him and his shot given a chance on the top power play unit at some point. He has some sneaky upside, but the likelihood of actually producing anywhere near it is lower than most of the other options on your FA pile at the moment.
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Detroit's young group is fun to watch:
Moritz Seider is an absolute tank, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him up over 200 hits at his peak. Fantasy gold there.
Also great to see in Detroit, Jakub Vrana (remember him?!) scored goals four and five on the season. There hasn't been much fanfare around his return to the lineup, so it's worth checking in on wheter he's an available free agent or possibly someone reasonable to acquire in a trade at this point. He's up to 13 goals in 18 games with Detroit since the trade that brought him there at last year's deadline.
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Random stat of the night: Dylan Coghlan (D) tied with William Carrier with a team-high six shots for Vegas in 22 minutes of ice time. He's an offensive depth defenceman, and a name to know if cap leagues as a super cheap option who is signed for another year at $763K. Depending on where Vegas sheds salary in the offseason, there may be a permanent spot in the lineup for him even when everyone is healthy.
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