Saturday’s Game Picks: Bet the Over on McDavid

Flip Livingstone

2022-03-26

Flip Livingstone’s picks

With the NHL's hectic trade-deadline day now firmly in the rearview, the next major destination on this season’s journey is the postseason. Playoff hockey is just over a month away and since teams across the league have now made their moves in preparation of a big postseason push, you can expect most games down the stretch to be action-packed, full of playoff anticipation.

Aside from the Central Division, which is currently Colorado's via a 17-point first-place cushion, the other three division races for first are within seven points. That leaves a lot of jockeying for position over the last four-to-five weeks while teams scramble to finish the year strong.

A full slate of games awaits with 12 total matchups to ponder today, including a juicy Battle of Alberta out west featuring the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers, and another classic showdown in the east between Original Six rivals in the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens.

Not too many regular-season Saturdays left to get this loot, so let's lock in and make some bank. Good luck!

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2021-22 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 8-5
Silver: 4-9
Bronze: 8-5
Side bets: 18-19

Total Saturday Record: 38-38-0

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Gold Pick
Connor McDavid (Player Points OVER 1.5) +120

When you consider the season Connor McDavid is having, his 95 points to pace the league might seem like nothing more than McJesus doing McJesus things. But when you take in the fact that No. 97 has been held pointless in 13 of 64 games this campaign, his 30 goals and 65 assists in 51 games become that much more impressive.

Bottom line: the Oilers will only go as far as McDavid carries them. Case in point, over those 13 games where he was held off the scoresheet, Edmonton posted a 2-11-0 record. Thankfully for the Oilers, McDavid has been red-hot over his last eight while registering six goals and 10 assists over that span.

Despite only managing one goal against the Calgary Flames in the most-recent iteration of the Battle of Alberta, I expect a much better offensive performance from an Edmonton group who will be looking to avenge the ugly loss from earlier in the month. One last thing to consider here for backing a big night from McDavid? How about the man's track record in regular-season games against the Flames: in 33 meetings against Calgary, No. 97 has 26 goals and 19 assists for 45 points – that includes nine game-winning tallies.

The Flames are on the second night of a back-to-back facing a hungry Edmonton team playing much better hockey over the past two weeks, basically turning it around since its wakeup call against this same Calgary team March 7. Expect a big night from McDavid and take his point total OVER 1.5 for my Gold Pick.

Silver Pick
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Minnesota Wild – Pick: Wild (ML) -235

Let's keep this one super simple. Columbus is coming off two tough road losses to the Pittsburgh Penguins and just last night to the Winnipeg Jets in what was clearly an emotional game for the Blue Jackets' best player Patrik Laine. Straight up, this just feels like a really bad spot for Columbus on the tailend of a tough three-game road swing that finishes by going into one of the tougher buildings to get points away from home in the Xcel Energy Center in Minnesota. 

On the other side of the coin you have a Wild group who were already playing well heading into the deadline and now with additions upfront and obviously in the crease with Hall-of-Famer Marc-Andre Fleury, Minny is starting to flex its muscle and prove why many consider them a dark horse pick for Lord Stanley.

I mentioned the tough spot here for Columbus on the second night of a back-to-back on the road against a Wild team that touts a 21-7-1 home record, but it gets worse for the Jackets as the Wild have won four straight and have confirmed that Flower will be manning the blue paint for his Minny debut Saturday night. Needless to say, the building that is always loud will be rocking with a little extra gusto this evening.

Do not be shy about sprinkling a bigger wager on this one, even if you want to get a little extra spicy and lay a bet down on the puckline for increased odds. I might just do the same.

Bronze Pick
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens (Over/Under 6.5) – Pick: UNDER -120

I know I am obviously biased but is there anything better than a Saturday that features both a Battle of Alberta and a Toronto-Montreal showdown? Maybe I'm too old school, but that gets me fired up. Which is the exact same feeling I expect in Montreal tonight between a Maple Leafs club currently in a division dog fight and a Canadiens crew playing much better hockey since the arrival of Marty St. Louis and his new staff.

This might not exactly look like a popular pick at first glance given the firepower of the Leafs and the defensive struggles of both teams who tend to allow goals in bunches but at a closer look this game really does line-up as one headed UNDER the number. First off in my defense of an under bet, I'll start with Jake Allen, who despite a 1-1-2 record in his four games returning from injury has been pretty solid. Allen posted a .932 save percentage while stopping 141 of 153 shots over that span and is clearly seeing the puck well despite facing over 36 shots on average per game.

Toronto's defensive struggles have been well documented but when you consider Jake Muzzin, Jack Campbell, and now Rasmus Sandin all missing on the backend, you cannot help but be a bit concerned when it comes to the Maple Leafs defensive capabilities. However, if we're aware of this weakness so is this roster and you've seen players like Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie and most-recently, Mark Giordano step up and lead this blue-line core.

I think Allen has another great game and the vets on the Toronto blue-line continue to step up in the absence of Muzzin and now Sandin, leading to what should be a relatively low-scoring game that stays UNDER the total. This classic showdown between two Original Six rivals goes UNDER 6.5 for my Bronze Pick of the day.

Side Bets

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Florida Panthers @ Ottawa Senators (Over/Under 6.5) – Pick: OVER -110
Alex Ovechkin (Anytime Goalscorer)
Seattle Kraken @ LA Kings – Pick: Kings (ML) -220

Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at outlets such as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks

Vlad Zorila’s picks

It's been a refreshing week in hockey if you ask me. Usually, Games 40-60 are when the season becomes dull because every player is either injured or about to be. Luckily for us, around the 60-game mark, we get the trade deadline, which never fails to spice up the league and bring in a new kind of excitement.

This year is no exception. We've already seen Tyler Toffoli tear it up with Calgary for a few weeks now. Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano are already having some serious impact for the Rangers. The Panthers look like a whole new war machine with Claude Giroux and Ben Chiarot, both of whom having contributed to the scoresheet against Montreal two nights ago.

These new 2.0 teams certainly make for some interesting picks to make, so let's get to that without further ado!

Gold Pick
New Jersey Devils @ Washington Capitals – Pick: Capitals

It's been a rough month for the talented Devils. It would probably take six Dougie Hamiltons on that blue line and then some to compensate for the mess that is their goaltending this season. Their two healthy keepers, Nico Daws and Jon Gillies, are putting up .901 and .884 save percentages respectively. It's safe to say that even my 12-year-old sister's field hockey team could get a few past those guys. Despite having some forwards going for breakout years such as Jesper Bratt or future Hart trophy winner Jack Hughes, it will take a lot more for New Jersey to go past their demons and snatch the victory on the road against Washington, having a mere 8-22-2 record when travelling this season.

Washington is coming off a hard-earned win against Buffalo yesterday. They've been pretty sporadic recently and rarely dominate games anymore, mostly due to some goaltending issues of their own. After a stellar start to the season, Ilya Samsonov's save percentage has plummeted down to a .899 currently. Regardless, they should have the sheer firepower to take down the Devils tonight.

Silver Pick
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens (Over/under 6.5) – Pick: Over

I've got few rational arguments to back this pick up other than it's the Leafs facing the Habs at the Bell Center on a Saturday night. Come on. What more do you need. I don't care who will come out on top. I honestly have no idea, both teams have been very consistent in their inconsistency recently. But that kind of matchup sure promises a lot of goals.

Both teams have been rolling with steady offensive units but very questionable defenses and goaltending for the past few weeks. On one side, Toronto should be relying again on rookie netminder Erik Kallgren, who's had some sporadic performances so far, while boasting a new bona fide group of blue liners with the addition of Mark Giordano. On the other end, Jake Allen will be looking to add another unnecessarily good performance to his books, as the defensive unit in front of him is pretty much made of stick figures at this point. It should be fun!

Bronze Pick
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Minnesota Wild – Pick: Wild (-0.5)

The Wild has won its last four home games. In each of those four games, they've been scored on twice or less. With new acquisition Marc-Andre Fleury set to make his debut for the team tonight, that defensive stability should still be in play for them as they're about to take on the Blue Jackets at home, a place where they've only lost eight games out of 29. Their roster is currently as strong as it can get for them as they don't have any important names on the LTIR, and their Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau, and Matt Boldy line has been lighting it up recently. In fact, their first three lines could be legitimate first lines on a good number of teams in the league. Columbus' defense is just too thin still to be able to respond to that kind of firepower.

Side Bets

Anaheim Ducks @ San Jose Sharks – Pick: Ducks

Edmonton Oilers @ Calgary Flames (Over/under 6.5) – Pick: Over

Carolina Hurricanes @ St Louis Blues – Pick: Hurricanes (-1.5)

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
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Mar 28 - 19:03 MTL vs PHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 PIT vs CBJ
Mar 28 - 19:03 FLA vs NYI
Mar 28 - 19:03 CAR vs DET
Mar 28 - 20:03 MIN vs S.J
Mar 28 - 20:03 STL vs CGY
Mar 28 - 20:03 WPG vs VGK
Mar 28 - 21:03 EDM vs L.A
Mar 28 - 21:03 COL vs NYR
Mar 28 - 22:03 SEA vs ANA
Mar 28 - 22:03 VAN vs DAL
Mar 28 - 22:03 ARI vs NSH

Starting Goalies

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JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL

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LINE COMBOS

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23.0 TIMO MEIER NICO HISCHIER JESPER BRATT
21.9 ONDREJ PALAT TOMAS NOSEK DAWSON MERCER
13.0 JACK HUGHES ALEXANDER HOLTZ ERIK HAULA

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