Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – Who is the better own when factoring in both goals and points – Kevin Fiala, Robert Thomas, or Mathew Barzal?

With goals getting a boost, so does Fiala, who, although by no means a textbook sniper, looks like one as compared Barzal or Thomas. Although like clockwork Fiala had his usual slow start, he emerged from it sooner and has played even better thereafter. What concerns me about Fiala though is he's consistently been relegated to PP2, which puts a natural ceiling on how good he can be. Perhaps he forces the issue at some point; however, Matt Boldy also will be angling for a spot on the first unit, so it's not certain if a spot – most likely the one currently occupied by Joel Eriksson-Ek – even opens up, that Fiala would end up being the one to grab it.

Thomas' role has vastly expanded in this, his fourth season which happens to coincide with his 200-game breakout threshold, making his big jump in production all the more "for real." The issue is St. Louis is a deep team down the middle, with Ryan O'Reilly and Brayden Schenn in the mix and signed to big deals. That hasn't stopped Thomas from becoming the top pivot, although like Fiala he's yet to claim a spot on PP1. In the case of the Blues, they're deep enough at forward as to field two solid units plus they don't play their PP1 into the ground like most teams. Another concern though about Thomas is his paltry SOG rate. It might be he's a pass first center, and those can have major success in the NHL, ala Henrik Sedin or Joe Thornton, although the jury is still out as to whether Thomas can be as great long term as those two.

Barzal is a rock musician stuck playing for a symphony orchestra in that he's a gifted offensive talent on a defense-first team. The thinking has been once he's allowed to strut his stuff again he'll explode; but what of the fact that Brock Nelson is thriving despite the supposed offensive shackles? To me that's not a concern, as Nelson is two-way center being leaned on heavily and is able to produce amidst a stifling system. Barzal, on the other hand, needs there to be a wide open, up-tempo style, to thrive. It can't be a coincidence that when Barry Trotz arrived, Barzal went from rookie phenom to disappointment. With the Isles unlikely to extend Trotz when his deal is done in 2023, it's a good bet they opt to bring in a coach who will allow Barzal to be unleashed. There's also the fact that Barzal was just the third rookie center age 20 or younger to post 85+ points and 2.0+ SOG per game dating back all the way to the 80s, with the other two being Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, plus others who did so earlier including all-time greats Steve Yzerman, Mario Lemieux, Dale Hawerchuk, Wayne Gretzky, and Bryan Trottier. What do all of them have in common? Multiple seasons of 100+ point outputs. For Barzal to have done what he did, and then never amount to anything, would be cutting against a lot of history.

I'm taking Barzal here due to the post-Trotz upside. Fiala and then Thomas would be second and a very close third, with Fiala barely above Thomas based solely on the goals bonus.

Topic #2 – Based on early returns, what does the future have in store for Tim Stutzle? In a league counting PIM, HIT, and +/-, is he a better own than Sam Bennett?

When selected third overall in 2020, the vision of poolies – and likely the Sens themselves – was that Stutzle would center the team's top line, consisting of fellow top five overall pick Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson, who had just finished his second consecutive AHL season with point per game scoring. What ended up happening though was Josh Norris, also a first rounder but picked 14 spots later and three years earlier, landed the top line gig; and the trio of him, Tkachuk and Batherson has shown great chemistry such that it's largely been those three playing together when all were healthy.

The result has been Stutzle centering the likes of Connor Brown, Alex Formenton, Nick Paul, Adam Gaudette, and Tyler Ennis. Quite a step down, I'm sure most will agree. Also, the Sens don't have the best rated prospect pool, as Formenton isn't seen as a game changer, Shane Pinto is likely a second or third liner, Egor Sokolov is doing just okay at the AHL level, and Ridly Greig is still in juniors despite being almost 20. What's more, the late Eugene Melnyk wasn't known as someone who'd pay big money to bring in talent, although that had not always been the case and perhaps once the team shows more promise they'll start to spend again.

For now, Stutzle likely will continue to hone his craft, and it's not impossible that he ends up supplanting Norris, although sniping centers like Norris are a rare breed and usually fare best on the top line, surrounded by the team's best players. In the meantime, Stutzle is on PP1 and no one is seen as a realistic challenger to his spot there. That should enable him to score in the 50s, perhaps even 60s, over the next few seasons, even if he remains "stuck" on the second line. Stutzle also has played LW at times for the Sens, making it a possibility he could see top line time with Norris, although that seems less likely than the team spreading its offense to two lines, as they'd done since they acquired Mathieu Joseph and before Stutzle recently missed time, with Batherson skating alongside Stutzle and Tkachuk with Norris and Joseph.

Is Stutzle a better own than Bennett with those categories? It's a pretty close call, as Bennett stuffs the stat sheet quite nicely and has stayed tethered to Jonathan Huberdeau. Unlike Stutzle, Bennett doesn't have a spot on PP1, and he's streaky. Plus, stats where Bennett excels can be found elsewhere, while raw talent the likes of what Stutzle is still considered to have is not as easily to land. If a team is in win now mode, perhaps I do the deal to get Bennett, but otherwise I keep Stutzle and bank on either Ottawa spreading its offense around on a more frequent basis in order to help boost Stutzle, or for the team to perform well enough to incent ownership to sign wingers who can produce and, in doing so, help Stutzle take the next step to forming a one-two punch with Norris.

Topic #3 – After a poor 2020-21, Kailer Yamamoto has shown flashes of great play this season. Where does he go from here?

Yamamoto turned heads in 2019-20 when, at 21, he landed in the Edmonton top six and played nearly point per game hockey toward the end of season. He took a big step back in 2020-21, with not even close to point per every other game output. Although he's upped his play of late, as I write this he's again under that threshold for 2021-22. What lies ahead?

I see Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as the second coming of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in one important regard, namely that for the bulk of their careers the Pens pivots never had "home grown" productive wingers, with Chris Kunitz, James Neal, and Phil Kessel coming from elsewhere. Only in the past couple of seasons have Pen-drafted Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust tasted success, in both cases not first rounders like Yamamoto. So far, the pattern has been the same with McDavid and Draisaitl, with a lack of home grown wingers to flank either one.

Does Yamamoto have hope of succeeding alongside one of the two Oiler big guns? Probably not. He's a low volume shooter – never even close to 2 per game – who, other than in 2019-20, hasn't had head-turning IPPs. In essence, he's a passenger, occupying a spot on a top line less because he "deserves" it as much as the Oilers are trying to see if he – and, similarly, Jesse Puljujarvi – can somehow work out, plus are handcuffed in some regard by the cap.

Yes, Yamamoto has caught fire for stretches of time, first in 2019-20 and this season when he recently produced 12 points in just eight games. Much more common though have been periods of ice cold play. Part of what led to Yamamoto's explosion this season was seeing PP1 time, which was a first for him and resulted in a three PPPts in the eight games. Once Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was back from injury, Yamamoto not only didn't see time on PP1, he saw almost no PP time at all. In fact, he's failed to log a second of PP time – and I'm talking about no PP time at all, not just no PP1 time – in more than half his games for 2021-22. It's one thing to lose the PP1 lottery; however, for a player to not even sniff a second of man advantage time in several dozen contests is not encouraging.

In fantasy, I'd pick up Yamamoto if/when he runs hot, since he's now shown he's able to do so for stretches of time, but then not hesitate to drop him once he inevitably cools. He'd only be an ongoing own if your team has a deep enough bench in order to stash him for those all too rare instances when he manages to catch fire. The future will likely hold more of the same, which is overall disappointment with rare glimmers of hope mixed in, until suddenly he's run out of chances, at which point he's likely to suffer a fate similar to once promising Penguin wingers drafted in the first round during the Crosby/Malkin era, like Colby Armstrong and Beau Bennett, not to mention Ryan Malone, Michel Ouellet, and Conor Sheary, who all landed with lots of hype and hope, only to disappoint and be cast offs by as early as age 25.

Topic #4 – What strategies are important in salary cap leagues? Who do you target first? How do you select keepers? Is it best to try for value across the board or a combination of expensive players and inexpensive ones?

Playing in a salary cap league is especially challenging because if you're not too careful you can let excessive cap concerns result in your downfall. Or to put it another way, although you have to be cognizant of the cap and mindful of what you can spend, if you're hyper focused on the cap, it can cause you to doubt your instincts and suffer from analysis paralysis. I see cap leagues like repackaged auction leagues, which, for those not familiar, are leagues where each team has a set budget and can bid on players, with every team having a chance to own any player so long as they're the highest bidder for the player. Every team has to be mindful of their spending, as they only have so much they can allocate to their entire team.

Are the strategies perfectly aligned? No, as in auction leagues a player's price is reset every season; and unlike in cap leagues, players on ELCs can go for a high price while veterans signed to fat contracts can go for a just buck or two. Still, the need to have a budget and to apportion how to spend that budget – there, I'd argue, the two are more similar than not.

First and foremost, it's rare to see a winning team in a salary cap league comprised of middle of the road guys – that is, players signed to deals that are neither expensive nor cheap. What usually ends up happening there is that you miss out on top tier talent plus the chance to buy into young players early. The exception could be in one-year leagues; however, since most cap leagues are keepers, and that's what the Forum thread presupposed, that's how I'll approach it.

Early on, you need to draft top guys even if they're expensive. Sure – if you can get a relatively inexpensive stud then by all means draft him; however, every bargain eventually stops being one. Just ask Florida and Colorado in 2023 with Jonathan Huberdeau and Nathan MacKinnon. If possible though, don't spend a lot on guys who are poised to see their production fall in the near term. Does that mean avoid Sidney Crosby and Patrick Kane? Not necessarily, as some players can and do defy father time. Just be cognizant of player ages and career trajectories when committing to spend a lot on them.

Remember too that your fellow GMs will likely be adopting a similar strategy, unless they try to focus on youth, essentially starting as a rebuilding team with the understanding they'll likely not be competitive for several years but ideally they'll be the team to beat once their young players hit their stride and before they're too expensive. I'm not a fan of this approach, as it's risky to begin with, plus young elite players are more frequently being signed to huge deals early, making it so the cap becomes a real concern perhaps before the team has had a chance to fully hit its stride.

When selecting keepers, you want any forward who makes $8M+ to have a viable shot at point per game production, based on the oft cited formula of $1M per 10+ points scored. As much as cap numbers and contract status should be a deciding factor in keeper decisions, so too should a player's team and where he fits on the depth chart. Also, the more players one is allowed to keep, the more he or she will need to mix in cheaper players yet to fully hit their stride. In other words, if a league has rosters of 30 players but only five keepers, one can't afford to get creative and must be sure to get locked in production. If, however, the number of keepers was double or even triple that figure, then the cap becomes a very real influencer.

I could go on and on, but I'll stop there. In sum, the cap is important, but not the be all end all in cap leagues. Or to put it another way, the cap looms, but it must not solely dictate every move or decision, including with keepers.

Topic #5 – In an 8 team, keep 6 H2H league (multi-cat but no FOW) with 25 roster spots (start 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G) and a $105M cap, players are kept in the rounds they were selected and have their actual salaries (not AAV) count against the cap. The team wants to keep Cale Makar ($9.0M, round 3), Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9M, round 4), and Trevor Zegras (0.925M, round 17). Which three others from this list should be kept: Mitch Marner ($10.5M, round 13), Alex DeBrincat ($6.4M, round 24), Cole Caufield ($0.880M, round 24), Lucas Raymond ($0.925M, round 22), Thomas Chabot ($8m round 24), Jacob Trouba ($8M, round 24), Mikhail Sergachev ($4.8M, round 18), Jakob Chychrun ($4.6M, round 5), llya Samsonov ($2M, round 4)?

Another cap question, but this time with an added twist of it mattering in which round a player was selected. Note that although not specified in the thread – or at least not when I read it – I have to assume a team can keep two players in the same round, perhaps with the second one moving to a round earlier.

Starting with the three envisioned keepers, although Huberdeau is going to cash in big time in 2023, he's a keep, especially since he might take less than market value to stay on Florida so as to keep its incredibly potent offense intact, and of course he still has a season left at his cheap, for him, cap hit. Makar is… well… Makar, and he's a keep in any league no matter what the parameters. Zegras might not break out for a few more seasons; but he has a high enough floor, to go along with his very high ceiling, and thus I agree that he merits a keeper spot.

With just under $90M for the remaining 22 players, that leaves an average of about $4M per player. Samsonov is an easy non-keep, so it's only F and D to consider. Based on what we're seeing from him since Martin St. Louis was installed, Caufield seems like an easy keep. If he's kept, that balances things out enough to hold Marner, as guys with 90-point downside are worth every penny of $10.5M. The last keep comes down to Raymond, DeBrincat, Chabot, and Chychrun. Although I know that 40% of a team's skaters are defensemen, I don't think either of those two merits keeping in a league where only 48 are kept. Chabot was on fire before he got hurt; however, to me, his injury, plus his season-long numbers not reflecting just how hot he'd become, makes him a redraft. It's a similar story for Chychrun too. Would I like to have both on my team next season? Yes, but not at the "cost" of them taking a keeper spot better occupied by someone who brings more to the table. Raymond has fared just okay since the return of Jakub Vrana, although at times it's been Vrana occupying the fourth spot on PP1 rather than Raymond, and that would be an issue if it continues long term. DeBrincat has seen his scoring drop somewhat from last season; yet despite the struggles of Chicago, he's still faring quite well. The question then becomes, is DeBrincat "worth" enough more than Raymond as to justify his keeper cost? I think with Caufield and Zegras already in the mix it would be risky to keep another upside player, even one with the potential of Raymond, so I'm opting to keep DeBrincat. Rather than let Raymond go for nothing though, I'd seek to trade him for a draft pick.

Topic #6 – In a 12 team, keep 9 plus all prospects, league with skater categories of points (1.25 for D, 1.0 for F) and PPPts (1.75 for D, 1.5 for F) a team has the following players:

F: Jordan Kyrou, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Clayton Keller, Jakub Vrana, Martin Necas, Sean Couturier, Casey Mittelstadt, Phil Kessel, Victor Olofsson, Dominik Kubalik, Rickard Rakell, Yanni Gourde

D: Jakob Chychrun, Adam Boqvist, Scott Perunovich, Erik Brannstrom, Dante Fabbro, Colton Parayko

G: Anton Khudobin, Joonas Korpisalo

Prospects: Trevor Zegras, Evan Bouchard, Matt Coronato, Owen Tippett, Mavrik Bourque, Jakob Pelletier, Ryan Merkley

Which 9 should be kept?

Normally keeper decisions are made all the more difficult because the team is trying to win, so the question becomes whether to keep aging players who might decline over younger ones who still have yet to peak and might never do so. Then you have cases like this, where the picture that's painted is very clear, namely that of a rebuilding team. With nearly half of the non-prospect players being kept, this team simply does not have the top end to be positioned to realistically compete next season. While it's never fun to enter a season knowing that barring a miracle you can't win, it's better than being a "tweener" team where you don't know what direction in which to proceed.

The first thing to consider in rebuilding is whether anyone should be traded who doesn't align with the direction of this team, which in this case would be Couturier. He's been very consistent but now has an injury issue plus the Flyers look like they might not be a top team during the window that Couturier has left to be productive. As such, I'd try to move him to get whatever I could in return. What probably will happen is for a team to agree to take Couturier, they would want a sweetener in the form of a young player, and that would not be in keeping with the mission of this team. By all means it should try to move Couturier; but if that isn't successful, just let him go and don't look back rather than lose a prospect solely to be able to move him.

Also, depending on how he fares on the Pens, Rakell might be able to be traded, so that should be kept in mind. Kessel is a UFA who could sign for a good team this summer, so if trading can occur that late then by all means see if he can be used to land something in return.

As for the nine who should be kept, it would be among Kyrou, Suzuki, Caufield, Keller, Vrana, Necas, Mittlestadt, Chychrun, Boqvist, and Perunovich, meaning only one of them would not make the cut. Those lowest on the totem pole are Mittlestadt, Boqvist, and Perunovich. If it was me, I'd let Mittlestadt go. He was making strides, but injuries have begun to be enough of a concern for him to have less of a lure. Yes, in some ways getting hurt while still young can be "better" in that a player can bounce back faster and more completely, but with Mittlestadt, the frequency of his injuries has made it so there is rightful concern that he's on his way to be a certified Band-Aid Boy. That pattern has derailed or diverted the career of several young players who were thought to have bright futures, such as Ondrej Kase, Nolan Patrick, Robby Fabbri, and Antony Mantha. Let Mittlestadt go, and keep the other nine, who, along with the prospects, should help set up this team to be in good shape in a couple of seasons.

Topic #7 – In a keeper league counting Points (4), PIM (0.5), and +/- (0.5) as categories and where forward positions don't matter, a team that is already strong and deep has been offered Nikita Kucherov for his Andrei Svechnikov and a first round pick. Should they take the deal?

For one, let's look at the categories, as those could be relevant. Svech is on his way to his "best" season in PIM, with roughly one per game, and he's also upped his +/-. Meanwhile, Kucherov is at his usual one PIM per every two games but is a minus player after seeing his +/- climb from +13 to +15 to +24 to +26 in his prior four seasons. Let's say that Svech continues to roughly double Kuch's PIM total – in a season where both play all 82 games that could be the equivalent of Svech scoring ten or more added points. What we don't know, however, is whether what we are seeing form Kucherov in +/- is indicative of a future trend. It might be, as if we go back to last season's playoff's Kucherov was relying more on PPPts for his scoring, and that seems to be continuing, and the result could be a worse +/- than what we'd seen from him.

It's less notable that the team would have to part with a first rounder, as 320 players are kept. This is also a very solid team, meaning that it's first round pick likely won't be until later in the round. Long story short, parting with a first round pick is less significant than it would be in many other leagues.

As for the players themselves, Kucherov has not played his best hockey, yet once again he sits above a 100-point pace. Still, he was at that pace in 2019-20 before getting hurt, making it so it might be that's his new normal. On the other hand, it could still be post-injury rust that will be gone once he's had this season under his belt. Still, it's not a guarantee he will ever return to the player he was in 2018-19, when he posted 128 points. What happened that campaign was the Lightning were unstoppable during the regular season but were shockingly ousted in the first round of the playoffs. Since then, even when not injured it seems like Kucherov might not be as concerned with big regular season numbers, choosing instead to save his best for playoff hockey. After all, he was healthy for 2019-20 and was basically the player he is now. My take is Kucherov is easing off the regular season gas pedal, not showing post-injury effects. As such, I'd consider him a 100- to 110-point player unlikely to rise back to what we saw in 2018-19.

Svechnikov, for all the hype and fanfare, has yet to post a point per game season. Yet he's also not close to maxed out when it comes to ice time, with him yet to near the 18:00 per game mark in any season. Carolina is stingy with its ice time, as even a star like Sebastian Aho sees just over 19:00 per game. This is in contrast to teams whose best players routinely skate for 20-22 minutes per game. Although Svech could see more ice time than he is now, it's not likely his per game average will spike. That is consequential, since of the 80 instances of left wings who averaged a point per game or more in 40+ games, a mere five did so while skating for less than 18:00 per game, although more than a third (i.e., 26) did so with less than 19:00 per game. Yet of the 26, only five averaged over three SOG per game, which I found rather odd, as I'd have thought to be able to be that productive with less ice time one would need to shoot more.

Are there comparables for Svech? Although he is the only winger to ever score between 0.75 points per game and 1.0 points per game while firing 2.6+ SOG per game in three separate seasons through age 21, several NHLers did so twice, most recently Patrik Laine, Brock Boeser, David Pastrnak, Jeff Skinner, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Marian Gaborik. While the jury is still out on Boeser and Laine, and Skinner certainly didn't pan out, Gaborik did become a two-time point-per-game player before being slowed by injuries in his late 20s, while Kovalchuk and Pasta did even better, with at least two 90+ point scoring pace seasons. Based on what he's done, Svech looks to be capable of more, especially since he's firing 20% more pucks on the net per game this season yet his SH% has not budged from his normal rate.

If this was straight points, I'd pull the trigger and grab Kucherov, but with PIM counting and it no longer clear whether Kucherov is going to prioritize regular season scoring, it becomes a much closer call. My take if deals are too close for there to be a clear winner, then I usually stick with what I have. That might also be the correct call here because of how stacked this seem is, such that it doesn't "need" Kucherov, especially if they only get the version of Kucherov we're seeing now and in 2019-20. Yes, Svechnikov is not guaranteed to take the next step, as several like him didn't even reach the 100 points that Kucherov can get in his sleep. Due to PIM Svech would only need to be a 90-point guy, which is realistic. The right call here looks to be standing pat.

Topic #8 – In a 16 team, H2H Cap dynasty league, a GM won't be able to keep all three of Sean Couturier ($7.75M through 2029-30), Pierre-Luc Dubois (RFA to be) and Evgeni Malkin (UFA to be) and wonders what Malkin's next contract figures to be, and if it will be so high as to let him go in favor of keeping Couturier and Dubois instead.

Although we don't know what Malkin will sign for, if he does stay with the Pens – and I suspect he will – then my sense is he'll ink a deal with an AAV between the amounts that Sidney Crosby ($8.7M) and Jake Guentzel ($6M) make. How'd I arrive at that conclusion? For appearance purposes, and because Crosby is flat out more valuable than Malkin at this stage in their careers, I can't see a world where Geno makes more than Crosby. But by the same token, I also think his pride plus his long tenure with the team puts him above Guentzel's $6M.

Still, Malkin ultimately could sign for less than Guentzel's $6M figure – as has been projected by DobberHockey's resident expert Alex MacLean – if he wants to ensure the Pens have enough money to re-sign Kris Letang and Bryan Rust, both of whom are also UFAs this summer, or if the Pens simply don't offer up more than that. I do wonder though that if Pittsburgh does "lowball" him with an offer in the $4-5M range, whether Malkin pulls a Mike Modano or Daniel Alfredsson and, despite his long tenure and history with Pittsburgh, opts to play his remaining year(s) on another team.

Of course, lots could change between now and when free agency begins, such as if the Pens lay an egg in the playoffs or they do so well as to prompt one or more of those three UFAs to seek to cash in elsewhere. My suspicion is inasmuch as Malkin, Letang and Rust have played their entire careers for the Penguins and the team still seems like it has gas in the tank, that all three will re-up with Pittsburgh, with Malkin probably in the $6.5-7M range, which also makes sense given some of the contracts awarded to older UFAs in recent seasons, like $7M per year to Joe Pavelski in 2019 at age 35 and $6.25M to Ilya Kovalchuk in 2018, also at age 35. Yes, those players changed teams; however, I think they demonstrate how Malkin, despite his age (turning 36 this summer) and long history of injury issues, still should command a hefty salary.

If it was me, I'd opt for keeping Malkin over Couturier, who is on a long term expensive contract that is all but assured to be more costly than what Malkin does end up making with the Pens or another team, and who may not have much talent surrounding him in Philly, plus is coming back from injury. Also, although last season was the only one in a decade to see Malkin not hit the point per game threshold, Couturier has yet to ever reach that milestone and doesn't figure to do so given his age and teammates.

As for Dubois, being an RFA, his exact amount will depend on how many years – if any – of free agency he's willing to eat up. Assuming it's not a short term deal, I like Alex's prediction of about $7M, which will be a bit of an overpayment at first; however, Dubois has a spot on PP1 locked up, ensuring he should have a 60 point floor for the time being, and if/when Mark Scheifele slows Dubois will be there to assume the duties of centering what should still be an elite top line for the Jets.

In sum, I'd keep Malkin and Dubois, and move on from Couturier. Admittedly Malkin's truly best hockey is behind him; but he is still likely to outperform Couturier both in general and when measured against salaries.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my mailbag is already full; but you should still feel free to send me questions, which would be included in the next mailbag or to which I can give you a short answer via email if they’re time-sensitive. To get your question(s) to me, please either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.