Ramblings: More Reviews of Preseason Predictions, Including Lindholm, Barzal, Forsberg, Letang, and More – April 22

Michael Clifford

2022-04-22

My Ramblings this week have been a look back at some preseason predictions and how they fared. We had an overview of a handful of players on Tuesday and we looked at players I flat-out missed on yesterday. We are going to finish the week on a positive note and self-congratulation: players that proved me right in one way or another this year.

To refresh, I use something called Standings Gained Points (SGP) for projecting season-long value. It was introduced to me by a fantasy baseball writer named Tanner Bell and is a good way to evaluate relative value. All SGP looks at is how much a certain player helps/hurts in a given fantasy category, based off the replacement value at that position. For example, if a replacement-level centre in my home league averages 19 goals/82 games, and Brayden Point is projected for 28 goals, the difference is positive SGP, and added to his final score. We do that for every category, for every player, to come up with one number we can compare within each position.  

For this exercise, we will be using Yahoo standard leagues and where players have finished the season (or at least, to this point). For my rankings, I just used centre/winger/defence, so the winger position is a bit flexible. It doesn't really matter for our purposes, though.

Final note: we're going to talk about guys that I was both high and low on, for various reasons, so we may include some players that you, dear reader, were high/low on and missed. Sorry!

Centre

J.T. Miller (My preseason ranking among centres based on SGP: 11th)

This was a player I was very high on in hits leagues because he could bring good value across all the relevant categories. Realistically, I should have had him 10th, as Patrice Bergeron was ranked just ahead of him, and when things are that close, we should lean to the younger player. Regardless, I had him ranked ahead of Brayden Point, Roope Hintz, John Tavares, Elias Pettersson, and others that may have been close to him in some other spots. It really was a great year for Miller, and it was something that spanned both coaches, a testament to his ability to produce in even sub-optimal situations (yes, much better under Boudreau, but that's not uncommon on this team). It feels like this is his career year, but if