Ramblings – Wings Snakebit, Fiala on Fire, Torrid Tarasenko, Prospect Test Runs… (Apr 25)

Dobber

2022-04-25

Now released – my 16th annual playoff draft list. Back in 2006, the very first product I released was this one. Just put it out there to see what it could do. I had been writing "Ramblings" and posting Rankings for about five months at this point and figured I would see how I would do selling something. Just over 100 people bought that first list, sending me a couple of bucks via PayPal. And a business was born! This spreadsheet has the ability to pick the winners each round, and adjust the projected games accordingly. I set their projected points-per-game average based on this season and prior playoff performance, as well as how they've been doing over the past month. The games are adjusted based on how far you think each team will go (and I factor in player injuries as well). Then, if you have MS Excel, simply click one of the buttons and sort your list by team, by player name or by points projection. What I love about this is that you can run several scenarios and print off each for your draft. Then, based on how the draft is going, you can then work off the best list that is left. For example, if one list is heavy on the Lightning, but you pick 10th and four Tampa players are taken before it even gets to you – then you may want to toss that list and roll with another one.

The spreadsheet also has my own list in there. Another option for you.

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I also released my Box Pools sheets, which are free. Yes, I set the players into boxes so you can run a pool at the office or with your friends. Just download it and it's ready to print. And I also set up the DobberHockey annual NHL Bracket Challenge. Download the former and get the link to the latter here.

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The Red Wings are one of several teams putting together a nice future. But what's a little discouraging to see, as a fantasy owner, is the team's scoring output going off a cliff in the second half. In the first half we had Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider flying high. Raymond was at a point-per-game pace in the first quarter, while Seider was comfortably on a 65-point pace midway through the season. Teams are keying in on them, and that may take a year of adjustment for the two future stars. They'll still put up nice numbers next season, but I wouldn't expect the big breakout yet.

Interesting to note that in the 24 games since Jakub Vrana made his season debut, he leads Detroit in scoring with 18 points. No other player has even 14. Yikes. Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi and Raymond have 13 each while Pius Suter has 12. After that? Filip Hronek with nine. It's been tough owning most of these guys in the second half.

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With Frederik Andersen having his usual late-season, pre-playoffs injury, the Hurricanes have been rolling with Antti Raanta and prospect goalie Pyotr Kochetkov. Now Kochetkov is a great prospect, but you need more than that to have fantasy value as a goaltender. You need opportunity. You need the timing to work out for you. Spencer Knight is possibly the top prospect goalie out there, but it doesn't mean he is the best one you should own. It could be four or even five years before he has his first 30-win season! Not because he's not doing well, but because of the contract (six more years) and pedigree (two Vezina trophies) that's in front of him. You just saw what such a thing does to an elite goalie prospect as you agonized year after year waiting for Juuse Saros to finally get Pekka Rinne out of the way. Well, that's my roundabout, rambling way of saying that the timing is pretty good for Kochetkov. He's only 22 (23 in June) so he's still a couple of years away – but he's Carolina's top prospect goalie and they have nobody tied up for the long term. It's lining up really, really well for him. Andersen will be their guy next year, and then if he shows them enough Kochetkov could be in the NHL the following year as a backup.

So on Sunday, Antti Raanta left the game after pulling something on this play:

Kochetkov came in and gave us another preview of what he can do, solidifying the win for Carolina.

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A couple of weeks ago the Blue Jackets signed one of the more highly-touted free agent college prospects in defenseman Nick Blankenburg. I profiled him back in January in the Midseason Guide so if you picked that one up he would have been on your radar. A Torey Krug clone, except weaker defensively, the 5-9 right-shot has upside. But he needs to make the team first. This month is his trial period and so far he's done well with it. Two points on Sunday and the game's first star now gives him three points in six games. And that's despite a 5on5 S% of just 2.5. However, his expected goals allowed are quite high and his possession numbers are below average. It's early though, so I consider him a boom-or-bust prospect and definitely one of the better college signings so far this year.

I can't remember the last time Oliver Bjorkstrand went 11 games without a point, but it just happened. He snapped his drought in a big way on Sunday with three points. A big part of that drought was due to trying out different linemates with him. Losing Boone Jenner hurt, and he couldn't get anything going with players like Max Domi. On Sunday he clicked well with Cole Sillinger and Yegor Chinakhov.

Kent Johnson, who to me could be Columbus' leading scorer for years to come, perhaps starting as early as 2023-24, saw only 8:31 of ice time on Sunday. So the transition hasn't been smooth yet. But don't forget, Johnny Gaudreau's ice time started out very low and he was getting scratched too, to begin his rookie season.

Jack Roslovic:
First 39 games: 16 points

Next 39 games: 27 points

Roslovic has 24 points in his last 29 games.

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Speaking of college players joining the NHL late in the season, Philly prospect Noah Cates has been making a statement that he'd to be part of the big club next season. He tallied three points on Sunday (in just 11:17 TOI) and has nine in 13 games. He's producing as well as he was at U. of Minnesota-Duluth. The fancy stats indicate that he's been a very solid two-way NHL player so far, although his production is a little inflated. He has seven points in his last five games and has found chemistry with Morgan Frost (and Owen Tippett). And that's actually awakened the more highly-touted Frost from his slumber, as he has three points in his last two games.

Sidney Crosby has 84 points and if he can pick up four in the last two games he will end the season with his highest points-per-game average in eight years. Just needs four in his next two to reach 1.28. At 34 years old, posting his best production since he was 26 – far too many keeper league owners consider him a fading asset and that's their loss. Four points in two games? He just did that last week, so he could certainly do it again.

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Christian Dvorak has nine points in his last 10 games for the Habs. His PP time has jumped as of late and he scored on the power play Sunday. But until he gets used on one of the top two lines, he's not getting enough respect for his offensive talent and will never achieve his upside. Playing on a checking line and getting defensive zone starts will forever keep him below 50 points.

The Mike HoffmanNick SuzukiCole Caufield line got burned badly by Boston (say that three times fast) on Sunday. They were on the ice for three goals, and were outshot 13-1. Chances were 19-9 against.

It took Jeff Petry 41 games to get his eighth point of the season. He has eight points in his last nine games. Go figure. Ah, fantasy hockey…

Although he got the win on Sunday, Jeremy Swayman has been in a bit of a funk. And suddenly that "playoff starter" status is no longer a lock for him. Here are the numbers since March 29…

Jeremy Swayman: 4-5-0, 3.41 GAA, 0.880 SV%, -7.174 GSAA, 22.2 QS%

Linus Ullmark: 4-1-0, 1.41 GAA, 0.948 SV%, +5.795, 42.9 QS%

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With Mikko Rantanen still sidelined with an illness, the Avs put together some interesting line combos:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
10:2119.9NICHUSHKIN – MACKINNON – LEHKONEN01-181044.4141351.9
9:2818.2KADRI – BURAKOVSKY – MEYERS01-18947.1161257.1
8:4816.9HELM – COGLIANO – STURM02-24736.49950.0
8:4716.9AUBE-KUBEL – COMPHER – NEWHOOK1013350.011955.0

Lehkonen is obviously not hanging onto that spot, but the fact that he is even getting a game or two there speaks to the organization's opinion of his offense.

Nazem Kadri has been back for three games, which is how long Rantanen has been sidelined. Kadri has just one point in that span and is minus-3.

Newly-acquired Josh Manson left the game with an elbow injury, but is apparently ready to play the next game.

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The battle of the Florida giants faced off on Sunday with Tampa coming out on top. The teams combined for 12 goals, including this beauty:

Kucherov? Stamkos? Nope – that was Nick Paul getting fancy. Great hustle by Brandon Hagel and a pretty sweet pass.

It was a wild one, including two fights and four ejections – including Coach Andrew Brunette, Jonathan Huberdeau, Mason Marchment and Ryan Lomberg.

Nikita Kucherov had himself a five-point game, while Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman tallied four each. For Kucherov, that gives him 15 points in five games. Stamkos has 17 points in six games and Hedman is up to 13 in five. Tampa is heading into the postseason on fire.

Spencer Knight got the hook after giving up five goals on 17 shots. He had been on a hot streak, but hadn't played in a week and was pretty much thrown to the wolves. It was just his second game in 15 days.

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Alex Ovechkin left the game on this play Sunday:

He did not return. TJ Oshie later said that he thought he would be fine – but TJ is not a doctor, so take that for what it's worth. Anthony Mantha filled in for Ovy afterwards, and really stepped up his game albeit with nothing to show for it. But that's something to keep an eye on if Ovechkin misses time.

Ilya Mikheyev picked up two more points for the Leafs, including his 20th goal. Don't forget that he missed 29 games this year and he's been mostly buried on the third line. As I've said several times here, last season was a Mulligan because he missed pretty much 13 months of hockey with that fluke wrist injury. He's 27, so he's an unrestricted free agent in the summer and there is no way the Leafs can afford to keep him at market value. The only drawback is his proneness to injury, but on the right team with a full and healthy season – I think he can be a 65- or even 70-point player. We'll be watching carefully for which team he signs with and evaluating the fit.

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Justin Faulk is another player looking to end up with the best season of his career. League-wide, personal highs are being set as scoring is way up. Faulk's S% is high, his 5on5 S% is high – each are indicators of inflated stats. But it is what it is. He scored his 16th on Sunday, one off his best from five years ago, and his 31st assist is three off his best from seven years ago. His 40 points at even strength are already a career high. He's signed for a lot of money – another five years with an AAV of $6.5M so he'll have plenty of opportunity to continue posting big numbers like this.

Another two points on Sunday gives Vladimir Tarasenko 20 points in his last nine games. His 82 points are a career high (by seven) and he still has three to go.

It was Ryan Getzlaf's final home game with Anaheim, where he played his entire career. He turns 37 in a couple of weeks, but to me he is still a 50-point player. Kudos to him for going out on top, but I think he could have squeezed a couple more seasons with decent numbers like that. Injuries have taken their toll. He picked up an assist Sunday and has six points in his last five games. UPDATE: Turns out that Getzlaf will not play the final two on the road, so this was actually his last NHL game. Here is his last NHL point, and it’s gorgeous:

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After five assists on Friday, Kevin Fiala tallied two more points on Sunday. In his last eight games he has 21 points. If we could figure out a way to get this guy to show up in the first 15 or 20 games each year, he'd be an Art Ross winner. Every season it's been the same – slow start, torrid finish. This year was 18 points in 29 games…and then 66 points in 50 games.

Since December 20, Kirill Kaprizov has 70 points in 49 games, Fiala has 66 in 50, and Mats Zuccarello has 57 in 47.

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Don't forget – this is the week where a few star players are going to be rested, just to screw with our rosters. But it is also the week where prospects like Marco Rossi and Jakob Pelletier get called up for an NHL stint while those starts get that rest. Keep an eye on Twitter and the NHL transactions.

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See you next Monday.

RIP Mike Bossy. RIP Guy Lafleur.

One Comment

  1. Striker 2022-04-25 at 16:42

    Dvorak is 3rd in TOI/GP at forward & 5th in PP TOI/GP for all skaters, his breakthrough is coming next season offensively as long as he plays 75 games. He will still log the hard defensive assignments but still see solid PP time so tempered certainly but 25 goals & 55 points are at hand. Dvorak won’t have to play all the hard mins in MTL as he did in Arz as they have other players that are good defensively.

    A ton of his zone starts are faceoff related only.

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KENT JOHNSON CBJ
VALERI NICHUSHKIN COL
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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ANA Players
22.9 TREVOR ZEGRAS ALEX KILLORN LEO CARLSSON
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