Ramblings: Explaining My Playoff Picks, Blashill, Price, Yandle (May 1)

Ian Gooding

2022-05-01

If you haven't already, you'll want to purchase your Playoff Draft List at the Dobber Store. It's a fully customizable spreadsheet so that you can enter your teams to win and determine playoff pool rankings. Or if you're not sure, you can use Dobber's picks. Get yours at the Dobber Sports store before your playoff pool deadline.

If you need further guidance in making your playoff picks, our writers will be providing their picks a little later today. As an added bonus this year, you'll also see DFS picks and game picks on certain days throughout the playoffs.

Today I'll give you a preview of my own picks, as well as the rationale that I used to make those picks. I'll add the disclaimer that I've been wrong thousands of times when it comes to picking series winners. These are not lead-pipe locks by any means and there are no analytical models justifying my choices. I'm just explaining how I see things. Maybe this helps you in your pools as well.

Florida vs. Washington – Florida in 6

The President's Trophy winning Panthers will be a popular Stanley Cup Final pick for obvious reasons. Yet do they play the style of hockey that is needed to get there? Also, can their goaltending hold up? I could see a scenario in which they don't get there because winning with high-scoring games doesn't work as well in the playoffs as it does in the regular season. I picked them at the start of the season to make the final, so I'm going to stick with that pick.

If they do lose, it's not in this round. Washington's goaltending is suspect (I think they are better off with Vitek Vanecek than Ilya Samsonov). And we don't know whether Alex Ovechkin is 100%. This could be a more competitive series than you might think, though.

Carolina vs. Boston – Boston in 7

If Frederik Andersen is fine, I'm taking the Hurricanes. However, Antti Raanta can't seem to play more than a few games without getting some kind of injury. The Canes are a possession team that doesn't have to rely on its goaltending anyway, which should still make this series competitive.

In yesterday's Ramblings, I cited the season matchup, which was 16-1 in favor of Carolina. Obviously the series won't end up that way, but it at least shows that Carolina is not a bad choice here at all if you were to lean that way.

Pittsburgh vs. NY Rangers – NY Rangers in 6

This might be one last hurrah for the Penguins, with Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang set to become UFAs this offseason. Pittsburgh has lost in either the first round or the qualifying round each of the last three seasons, so I'm not sure if there's anything different about the Penguins this season that would advance them past the first round. I'm not sure about the health of Tristan Jarry, while the Rangers have a goalie they can ride in Igor Shesterkin.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay in 7

I know Toronto gets a bad rap about folding like a cheap suit in the first round. But I compare their plight to that of their baseball neighbors, the Blue Jays. Both play in an absolutely grueling division with a difficult path out. I know the Leafs had what seemed like a golden opportunity last season in the North Division, but remember that Montreal won two more playoff series after knocking off the Leafs in 7. Still feels like a missed opportunity, though.

You'd think Tampa would be exhausted after back-to-back Stanley Cups. Not the case if you've seen them lately, in particular Steven Stamkos. They look like a team that could still win it all (threepeat). I'd have to bet on the team that already has winning in its DNA, although in reality the lineups stack up fairly evenly.

Colorado vs. Nashville – Colorado in 5

Colorado is in a similar situation to Florida. I've picked them to go to the final, and for them specifically to win the Stanley Cup. They play a high-octane game that may be better suited for the regular season than the playoffs. So there are numerous reasons that they could get knocked out before the final.

Like Florida, it won't happen in this round. Assuming Juuse Saros is on the shelf for the playoffs, Nashville will have to rely on David Rittich and perhaps even Connor Ingram. I think their physical style could help them scratch and claw their way to a game win in front of the vocal Smashville crowd. But without Saros, Colorado will be more than they can handle.

Calgary vs. Dallas – Calgary in 5

Calgary clearly looks like the better team; however, Dallas did knock off the Flames two seasons ago in the bubble. But that's about all I can muster as an advantage for the Stars. Both teams lean heavily on one line, but it is Calgary's that has been the strongest in the league this season. The Flames also have an advantage in net with Jacob Markstrom over Jake Oettinger.

Minnesota vs. St. Louis – St. Louis in 7

This is the one series I could see going either way. Maybe 51% Blues, 49% Wild? Minnesota does have the home-ice advantage, but St. Louis did win all three of their matches against the Wild this season – two in overtime and the other the Winter Classic. I just like the scoring depth on the Blues a little bit more.

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Both teams play heavy hockey and roll three solid scoring lines, so this could make for a great series with many potential subplots. I wouldn't be surprised if all four goalies see action in this series too. Could be a fun one to watch.

Edmonton vs. Los Angeles – Edmonton in 6

We've seen the Oilers implode at various points this season, and I wouldn't be shocked if that happens again here. Yet they're the league's second-best team since Jay Woodcroft took over on February 11 (.724 winning percentage). The Evander Kane gamble has paid off, and Mike Smith is not only fully healthy but also one of the league's hottest goalies.

The Kings stumbled a bit down the stretch before solidifying their playoff spot with wins against weaker opponents. I'd give them more of a chance if Drew Doughty were in the lineup, and credit to them to have made it this far in spite of all their injuries on defense. But Edmonton is the team with the two best players in the series (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl).  

I was going to post this yesterday, but I completely forgot. There was plenty of offensive production yesterday, even with a few star players sitting out.  

The day after the (bulk of the) regular season finishing doesn't have a Black Monday feel to it like the NFL does in terms of coaches losing their jobs. Yet at least one team will have a new head coach next season, as the Red Wings decided to part ways with Jeff Blashill. I wrote the Fantasy Take for this transaction. I don't know if there will be too many coaching changes this offseason because there have been quite a few already this season, but Blashill's name was the first that came to mind to me when I was thinking about which coaches could be gone.

Some of the names on this list are interim coaches, so there could be more changes from here. Philly looks like it could be one. Winnipeg seems like a possibility too. Chicago seemed to improve after their change, so I'll say they stick with Derek King. Hopefully Vancouver and Bruce Boudreau come to terms, but if not, there's another one right there.

In a press conference on Friday, Carey Price revealed that the status of his surgically repaired knee may force him to retire. Price sounds like he is still preparing for next season, but he is far from a certainty at this point. Another surgery might be an option, which depending on the timing could delay Price's start to next season.

Keith Yandle will be retiring from the NHL, as per Philly Hockey Now. He'll be most known for breaking the NHL's ironman streak, which reached 989 games. Yandle was a power-play specialist who reached a career-high 62 points and 39 power-play points three seasons ago with the Panthers. Unfortunately, he finished with a league-worst minus-46 this season. All the best to him in retirement.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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