Ramblings – Profiling 18 ‘Bubble’ Keepers, Marchand vs. DeAngelo, and more… (May 9)

Dobber

2022-05-09

It wasn't a great year for me for fantasy hockey, as I didn't win either of my dynasty leagues, nor my keeper league (keep 12). But the keeper league was the real disappointment because I was in the top three midseason and it was pretty much me another guy chasing first place who had a huge lead. The 'other guy' ended up catching him and winning by a decent margin. I was frustrated because nobody was replying to trade offers other than the 'other guy'. It was just easier to deal with him, hand him the win, and retool for the future. But I almost decided to quit that league altogether. I think I've been in that one for about 12 years and other than a three-year run of championships, I've ended up second and third a lot. A lot. But this issue with the bottom half of the league not replying to trade offers at all, or weeks later, has been beyond frustrating and I was at the end of my rope. But I think I'll stay on for another year because of some players I own who have emerged as keepers.

Already had them heading into 2021-22 (6):

Nathan MacKinnon, C, Kevin Fiala, W, Victor Hedman, D, John Carlson, D, Seth Jones, D, Connor Hellebuyck, G

Drafted late (1):

Jesper Bratt: How did I get him in the 10th round? Amazing. Right now, I consider Bratt a 70-game guy (he just played 76 but his track record still has me playing it cautious with my expectations), but I think he can get 80 points in those 70 games. He began the season pointless in five games, so he had 73 in his last 71.

Acquired (Trade) (2):

Clayton Keller: I gave the second-place guy the win by handing him Morgan Rielly, Tyson Barrie, Mikael Granlund and Sergei Bobrovsky for basically Thomas Chabot, Nicklas Backstrom and Clayton Keller, though there were other pieces but those were the only three I would consider keeping as part of my 12. If you recall, Keller had just six points in 16 games to start the season. But the Keller we have all been waiting for has finally arrived – he ended with 57 in 51 games before suffering an injury that ended his season at the end of March. Very excited about what a full season from Bratt and Keller will bring, and those two are the main reasons I decided to stick with it. I'll just have to try to win with the understanding that trades are probably not going to happen.

Thomas Chabot: Acquired in the above move, Chabot becomes my ninth "for sure" keeper. The last two seasons, his production rate was that of a 53-point defenseman, which is great. But we all know he can do much better. Right now he's being held back a little with defensive responsibilities, the way we saw with Alex Pietrangelo for so many years. But some prospects are on the way, such as Jacob Bernard-Docker, who could ease some of the load there.

Acquired (Waivers) (1):

Kent Johnson: My final "for sure" keeper, this top prospect slots in as my 10th. Based on his success rate in limited late-season action, I think the points will be slow to arrive. He may even see a few games in the AHL to start. But I think in the second half next year we'll see signs of what's to come, and I feel like 2023-24 will be a great year for him.

My Bubble Players (11th and 12th slots):

Oliver Bjorkstrand: A fantastic finish to the season with seven points in four games, but that came on the heels of going pointless in 11. His puck luck was the worst of his career at 7.2% 5on5 S%, and his O.Zone Starts were the lowest in six years at 50.4%. This is due to Patrik Laine being unable to handle anything remotely defense, while Bjorkstrand is a huge possession driver. Ironically, Laine faced the toughest quality of competition on the team. Talk about being used poorly. Anyway, with Cole Sillinger having more experience and Kent Johnson now arriving, Bjorkstrand is starting to get some skill to play with. Skill that Laine was hogging. Laine has the pedigree, so he will always get first choice of linemates from the coach. Bjorkstrand finished with 57 points, but I know he has that gear that can get him over 70. I put my odds of keeping him at 75%.

Ryan Strome: The pending UFA is coming off his weakest year in three seasons, with a 61-point pace. And on a different team, I just don't know if he can be that 70-point guy. Can he go anywhere else and play with a winger half as good as Artemi Panarin? I put my odds of keeping him at 35%.

Nicklas Backstrom: After 10 straight seasons of producing at a minimum 72-point pace, the veteran produced at a 54-point full-season pace. At 34, he's no spring chicken (though he's 14 years younger than me haha), but I always give players a break those first 25 games or so after returning from an extended injury. That being said, at his age, what are the odds of bouncing back to 70-plus? I put my odds of keeping him at 30%.

Conor Garland: It was a very strong finish for Garland with 20 points in his last 19 games. He's signed for the next four years, though there were heavy rumors that he would be traded at the deadline. Now entering his prime, I think he'll settle in as a 60-point player. But there is upside, he just needs to win the lottery and get a spot alongside Elias Pettersson, who I'm sure will bounce back. Garland played with Pettersson a lot this season, though he had more success with JT Miller. I put my odds of keeping him at 25%

Trevor Moore: This seems like a strange name to have here as a contender, but when he started the year it was assumed that he was a bottom-sixer who would contribute 25 or 30 points. Having never been drafted, he has very little in the way of pedigree and has had to earn every ounce of respect he's been given. Which hasn't been much, prior to this season. He started out the year with just seven points in 32 games before the Kings caught lightning in a bottle when the put him on a line with Philip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson. Moore went on to post 42 points in 49 games! And now he has four points in five playoff games (including a goal and an assist Sunday), making it 47 in his last 53. That's keeper-worthy production, albeit a smallish sample size. But the fancy stats all point to a strong possession player who can handle the tougher minutes and, if anything, has had weaker puck luck than normal. I think he's a sneaky-good candidate to surprise into the low-60s for points in 2022-23 and there is a bit of upside for more. This one is a risk, but not as poor a risk as you'd think. I put my odds of keeping him at 20%.

Yegor Sharangovich: A tremendous finish to the season put this guy back on the fantasy radar, as he tallied 29 points in his last 36 contests playing with Jack Hughes. He's 100% reliant on linemates for his production, but the odds are in his favor that he holds onto this spot. I put my odds of keeping him at 20%.

Mavrik Bourque: The youngster has first-line upside and is close to NHL-readiness. However, on the Stars I doubt he can work his way onto a scoring line in the first half of next season and is probably going to see a few games in the first month or two in the AHL. He might be worth keeping for the long-term upside though, but he's a prospect you can probably just take in a middle round of the re-draft. I put my odds of keeping him at 10%.

Mathieu Joseph: I snagged him off of waivers when he started exploding for the Senators, clicking on a line with Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk. But then he suffered an injury a few games later so we never really got to see what he could do in this new environment. In 11 games with Ottawa he tallied 12 points. A very small sample size, and with Shane Pinto back next year we can't be certain that he keeps his spot. Connor Brown and Alex Formenton would seem to be good fits for third-line two-way duty. But so would Joseph and Pinto. Two of those four will line up with Colin White on that third line, which makes the other two worthy keepers. Given Joseph's 11-game success, I think he'll get first dibs. But we've seen it a thousand times – first dibs can get lost in an awful hurry. I'm reminded of Colby Armstrong/Sidney Crosby, Ty Rattie/Connor McDavid, Brandon Bochenski/Jason Spezza, Cory Conacher/John Tavares…I could go on and on. I put my odds of keeping him at 10%.

Jonatan Berggren: A premier setup man who had a strong offensive season in the AHL. And with Detroit, there is plenty of room for him to move up to the big club next season. Berggren had just one point in his first five points as a North American pro, but he finished the season on a 11-game points streak. He had 19 points in those 11 games (13 assists). I really like this prospect, the question with him is timing. I think he'll be a 70-point guy, but is he going to get 35-55 for the first five years before making the jump to 70…or will he get upwards of 60-plus and move to 70 quickly? More investigation is needed and I put my odds of keeping him at 10%.

Karel Vejmelka: Arizona's starting goalie and long-term solution (in my opinion) had numbers that didn't wow you. But this was a bad team, and to get over 40% Quality Starts on such a team is pretty good, and speaks to upside. The team signed him to a three-year extension. But under my goalie tier system – the original zero goalie idea – I can get him late in the re-draft. I put my odds of keeping him at 3%.

Logan Thompson: We all know his story. Thompson was dynamite for Vegas down the stretch and he was the team's best goalie this season, albeit over 19 games. However, he is still exempt from waivers and Laurent Brossoit is still signed for next season. I put my odds of keeping him at 1%.

Matthew Coronato: In a Keep 12 format, I seriously doubt I would keep a prospect who isn't even turning pro next season, no matter how great the prospect. I put my odds of keeping him at 1%.

Other players of note are Jared McCann (50 points this year, but even 55 or 60 with little upside for more isn't enough for me), Sean Durzi (I have enough defensemen and his production isn't there yet), and Xavier Bourgault (huge upside, but several years away), Sebastian Cossa (ditto).

That's it! My big decision, and the logic that I'm currently using as I process this over the next couple of months.

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And with all that writeup, I am out of room to get into my two dynasties. I'll save them for a rainy day…

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No Charlie McAvoy? No problem. The Bruins tie the series with Carolina on the Brad Marchand/Patrice Bergeron show. Marchand tallied five points and got under Tony DeAngelo's skin, leading the charge. Marchand saw 9:30 of power-play time, and David Pastrnak saw 9:51. How can any team win when they do that? Marchand now has nine points in four games this series. Can you imagine him continuing this pace and the team loses in seven? Losing a series when you have a player getting 15 or 16 points in those seven games?

Tony DeAngelo and Brad Marchand chirping at each other. DeAngelo, you can briefly see, does a symbol of a long nose. Marchand, from what I've seen on social media, called him a racist. You can see it all here:

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And you can see Marchand got under DeAngelo's skin and had the last laugh. Look at DeAngelo's frustration here:

I wonder if Coach Rod Brind-Amour sits out DeAngelo next game, though TDA did get an assist in the loss.

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McAvoy was out of the lineup because of… COVID. Yes, that's still rearing its ugly head and continues to be a risk for players – regardless of no symptoms.

Matt Grzelcyk saw 7:29 of PP time in McAvoy's absence, but was held pointless.

Bergeron had three points and 19 faceoff wins (70%) as well as five SOG.

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Jordan Binnington became Jordan Winnington again on Sunday, as he finally got his first playoff win since hoisting the Cup. However far the Blues go, this is probably how they're going to do it. Ville Husso was awesome in Game one, got crushed in Game 2, and then was below average in Game 3. Now Binnington has a strong game, he's probably going in for Game 5.

Ivan Barbashev is pointless in his last six games. The only other time he did that this year was in mid-February when he went 10 without a point.

Prospect defenseman Scott Perunovich was activated from IR and got into his first career playoff game for the Blues. He picked up an assist. With Nick Leddy and Torey Krug sidelined, Perunovich was given top unit PP time. If he can kick the injury bug, which has been a huge factor early in his pro career, his upside is through the roof.

While the Vladimir Tarasenko line has been quiet, the Ryan O'Reilly line continues to pour it on. He and David Perron had three points each.

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What's with the Leafs and Lightning taking turns pummeling each other?

Real impressed with Brandon Hagel on the third line for the Lightning. He's third on the team in playoff scoring with three points. That's with zero PP time and 13 minutes of ice time. I've said it here before a couple of times – he's their next Ondrej Palat, minus the injuries. Palat likely leaves for free agency in the summer.

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From the NHL:

Cale Makar's seven points ties him for third all-time among defensemen in NHL history in terms of scoring through the first three games of the playoffs. Chris Chelios had eight in 1991 and Al MacInnis had eight in 1999.

Sidney Crosby is sixth on the all-time NHL playoff points list with 197, passing Paul Coffey. He also has 20 career playoff assists against the Rangers in 25 games, which makes him the all-time leader there (Henri Richard used to own the lead with 18).

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Reminder to everyone with a subscription – the payments for this processes for the next year on May 15. So this coming Sunday. That's the day I will also make available for presale all of next year's items. Leading it off: The Fantasy Prospects Report, released on June 14.

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And finally, I have sponsored our old friend Andrew Walker’s new podcast called ‘The Hedge’. It’s a podcast dedicated to sports betting (see our new section here) and daily fantasy sports. Every day DobberHockey sponsors their player of the day. Walker, way back in the early days, hosted Dobber Nation. He since moved on to some great things, and for my money he was the best voice and host on FAN 590 when he was in Toronto, before moving onto the the drive home in Vancouver’s Sportsnet 650. Now he’s doing his own thing, and I think his show has been a great 45-minute daily listen. His guests so far have included Elliotte Friedman, John Buccigross, Dan Schulman, David Amber, Brad Treliving and more. A different one each day. And then at the end of the show he has a segment where he brings on a top sports gambler and they present their player of the day. And frankly, they hit on most of them! Check out The Hedge YouTube page and subscribe here.

This is the show from last Friday, starting at the DobberHockey segment here:

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See you next Monday.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11 CAR vs PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11 MTL vs CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11 BUF vs OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11 TOR vs BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11 NYI vs PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11 MIN vs L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11 STL vs T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11 WPG vs UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11 COL vs SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11 ANA vs VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11 S.J vs CBJ

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

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CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
ALEX LAFERRIERE L.A
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
MARTIN NECAS CAR
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN S.J

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  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

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  Frequency PIT Players
25.6 RICKARD RAKELL EVGENI MALKIN SIDNEY CROSBY
18.5 DREW O'CONNOR LARS ELLER NOEL ACCIARI
7.1 CODY GLASS MICHAEL BUNTING NOEL ACCIARI

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