Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. Let's begin this week's 21 Rambles with a brief roundup heading into today's Round 1 matchups:

Replacing the struggling Linus Ullmark in net for Game 3, Jeremy Swayman made 25 saves in backstopping the Bruins to their first win of the series on home ice last Friday. Swayman was making his first career playoff start, and you’d have to think he’ll start Game 4, as well.

The Bruins’ Production Line was reunited after being split up partway through the regular season, and it seemed to pay off. Brad Marchand scored a goal and added two power-play assists to lead all Bruins scorers. Marchand had struggled a bit during April, at one point being held without a goal for 11 games and recording just two assists over a nine-game span. Expect the top-line stack to continue, which will be great for Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak, but not so much for other Bruins forwards. (may7)

2. Pyotr Kochetkov also made his first career playoff start in Game 3, stopping 24 of 28 shots in the loss. Kochetkov, the 36^th overall pick in the 2019 draft, came to North America after the KHL season ended and had posted some solid AHL numbers upon arrival (15 GP, 2.09 GAA, .921 SV%). He is only 22 years old and is reportedly still learning English, and the playoffs are not something either he or the Canes expected him to experience this season, so we have to cut him some slack. There’s a good chance Antti Raanta could be in net for Game 4, but at least the future appears bright for Kochetkov (Dobber Prospects profile). (may7)

The silver lining with the Frederik Andersen and Raanta injuries (win or lose) is that the Canes will find out what they have with Kochetkov and perhaps even Jack LaFontaine. But for next season, there’s no reason to expect much different in the Canes’ goalie situation with the veterans. (may6)

3. Jack Campbell had an up-and-down regular season, but he seems to be finding his game at the right time. Campbell stopped 32 of 34 shots he faced in Game 3, as the Maple Leafs took a 2-1 series lead over the Bolts. It’s worth mentioning that over 10 career playoff games (all with the Leafs), Campbell has a 1.97 GAA and .931 SV%. (may7)

4. Following a hat trick in Game 2, Kirill Kaprizov scored another goal and added an assist in Game 3. That gives him five points, a plus-4, and nine shots over his last two games. The Wild have been bringing the offense overall over those last two games, scoring 11 goals. Following his near-hat trick in Game 2, Joel Eriksson Ek also scored another goal and added an assist in Game 3. Eriksson Ek also has five points, a plus-5, and eight hits over his last two games.

Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 29 of 30 shots in earning the Game 3 win. He has allowed just three goals over his last two games. After Game 1’s loss (four goals on 31 shots), Cam Talbot seemed like an option for Game 2. However, the Wild did not trade away a second-round pick (first-round if the Wild advance to the conference final) so that Flower could wilt on the bench. (may7)

5. The Edmonton Oilers continue to score, piling up 14 goals in Games 2 and 3 of their series against the Kings. The crazy part is that it’s not necessarily Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, although they finished Game 3 with two points each. Evander Kane is en fuego. After a three-point third period in Game 2, Kane followed up with three goals in Game 3. The hat trick goal was with less than a minute left and the outcome already decided, but they all count. Kane was everything you’d want in a multicategory player in Game 3, recording a plus-3 with nine shots and eight hits. That’s what you’d call a high-event player. (may7)

6. With the regular season now in the books, I’ll take this opportunity over the next few days to look back at my season predictions. Specifically, my selections for player to rebound and player to disappoint. It turns out that I was correct on one but incorrect on the other. Yesterday, I wrote about my correct pick of player to rebound in Frederik Andersen. Today, I’ll come clean about the incorrect choice I made in Joe Pavelski as a potential bust.

There were several reasons not to be bullish about Pavelski heading into the season. Pavelski’s age (37), somewhat unexpected rebound to a near point-per-game level, and high shooting percentage (18 SH%) could all be cited as reasons for a decline. I had even received feedback during the offseason to move Pavelski off the Top 100 Roto Rankings. (I decided to keep him there, even though I was skeptical about it.)

Even with a lower shooting percentage (12.5 SH%) and a lower PDO (from 1042 to 1013), Pavelski managed to improve on his 2020-21 numbers with a point-per-game pace (81 PTS in 82 GP). He maintained a similar shots-per-game pace, while his goal total only increased by two while playing in 26 more games. The key was increased ice time with one of the top lines in the league with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Each of those three players recorded a minimum of 72 points, while no other Stars managed to crack 50 points.

What you think about Pavelski going forward will depend on when you think his age-related decline will really hit. It was thought to have occurred in 2019-20, when he scored just 31 points in 67 games, his first season in Dallas. Pavelski appeared to need time to adjust to a new system in Dallas, but it has worked out just fine. If you draft him next season, pay attention to the line combinations, as moving off that line could have an adverse impact on his fantasy value. (may7)

7. Reminder: As the Stanley Cup playoffs continue, look for our DFS articles to appear on select days of the week. If you play DFS or like to bet on games, keep our new DFS home page bookmarked for the latest articles. We're currently rolling DFS articles on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays, while game picks articles will now appear on both Saturdays and Wednesdays. (may6)

8. Juuse Saros isn’t ready to return yet (which is considered a possibility at this point). Beyond that, David Rittich is a UFA after the season, which could open up a spot for Connor Ingram as Saros’ backup if he can further impress during the playoffs. For more on Ingram, see his Dobber Prospects page. The Preds' rookie made his first-ever playoff start in Game 2 and stood tall against the Avalanche after playing in just three regular-season games, Ingram singlehandedly kept the Predators in that one, stopping 48 of 50 shots he faced. Not just 48 saves, but 48 consecutive saves between Nathan MacKinnon‘s first-period goal and Cale Makar‘s overtime winner. An outstanding performance from Ingram. (may6)

9. Yaroslav Askarov is heading to North America and is in line to sign his ELC to start for the 2022-23 season. With Connor Ingram likely backing up in Nashville next year (and currently up due to Juuse Saros‘ injury), there is an opening in Milwaukee for Askarov to step in and see a lot of starts. He may be one of the highest upside goalies out there, but his NHL impact is still a few years away. (may4)

10. If you’re looking for a more immediate impact with the next KHL goalie coming over, then look no further than Fedotov – his DobberProspects profile can be found here. The six-foot-eight goalie was drafted in the seventh round all the way back in 2015 and has dominated in Russia over the last few years. He has made his intentions to come to North America quite clear and Carter Hart has not done a lot of late to keep a steady hold on the starter’s job. (may4)

11. Sticking with goalies, the cheapest one to acquire this summer will be Philipp Grubauer after his disastrous first year in Seattle (who didn’t fare much better with anyone else in the net either). Seattle has let their goalie coach go, and we have seen that make a big difference for some goaltenders. Seattle doesn’t project to be all that much better next year as there is a conveniently strong draft class in 2023, but at least if Grubauer doesn’t get back to his Colorado numbers, he still didn’t cost you much at all to acquire. (may4)

12. One thing that is clear about the NHL over the last few years is that shot quality is really starting to take precedence. Not that teams and players ever discarded it, but it’s obvious that plays involving multiple passes, transition work, reducing point shots etc. are being prioritized.

To that end, it’s worth looking at which players have gotten better at generating shot quality. We are going to take a player’s two-year average from 2019-21 and compare that average to what they produced in 2021-22. One season doesn’t qualify as a pattern, but it could help point us in the right direction for players that could be improving their skills necessary to execute their coach’s offensive plan. If they can persist, maybe they are a burgeoning goal scorer, or raising an established ceiling. We are going to use high-danger, rush shot, and expected goal data from Natural Stat Trick. We are going to be looking at 5-on-5 play per 60 minutes only, and because we’re looking at the last three years, some younger players are going to naturally be excluded for lack of sample size: (may5)

13. Phillip Danault: Some of the players listed won’t be a surprise, and Danault certainly applies here. He had career-highs in virtually every category related to goal-scoring, including just raw goal totals. There will be another couple Kings forwards further down this list, and even Anze Kopitar and Viktor Arvidsson had improvements in these areas. This was a team-wide philosophy, and it paid off with a playoff trip. Whether Danault can maintain it is another matter, but most of this roster will be back next year, and likely improved with their kids starting to make an impact. We should expect another 20-goal season.

Artturi Lehkonen: Another player who set a career-best in goals with 19, Lehkonen probably gets to 20 if he plays 80 games. He shot a career-best 12.3% as well, but just 10.5% at 5-on-5, and he’s cracked 10% twice before in his career. If he stays in Colorado and on the second line, he is in a great scoring environment. Lack of PPTOI will cap his upside, but we could be seeing him pass 20 goals next year for the first time in his career. Combine that with a reasonable amount of hits, and there’s depth fantasy value breaking through here.

Troy Terry: Seeing Terry’s name here probably isn’t a surprise, considering he scored 37 goals in 75 games, having scored just 15 in his first 129 regular season contests. His 19.3% shooting is excessive, but even 11% would have pushed him over the 20-goal mark. Anaheim is an improving team but repeating 35+ goals will be difficult. Regardless, it seems Terry has turned a corner in his development and is likely now a genuine 25-goal threat. If he can start finding chemistry with Trevor Zegras, the Ducks may have figured out their new top line. (may5)

14. Now, let's look at the final five weeks of the season to see who did well, why they did well, and whether it could lead to big things five months from now. We’ll be getting a lot of information either from our Frozen Tools or from Natural Stat Trick and we are going to avoid players that are usually at the top of these lists. That means no Nikita Kucherov, or Connor McDavid, or Jonathan Huberdeau, and so on.

Matt Boldy: Funnily enough, he finished third among Minnesota skaters in points per 60 minutes at all strengths in our timeframe, behind Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala. All three finished in the top-20 and Boldy posted 15 points in 15 games. He also did that skating 14 minutes a game. Now, a lot of it was secondary assists (half of his helpers were secondary) but even taking half of those particular assists away leads to a 66-point/82-game pace. Fun fact: from Evolving Hockey, Boldy finished fifth among all skaters in wins above replacement per minute this year. The four guys ahead of him include Mason Marchment (we’ll get to him later), the Matthews/Bunting top-line Leafs duo, and Johnny Gaudreau. It is just a half-season sample, but the Wild could have another superstar on their hands. (may3)

15. Victor Olofsson: Over his final 17 games, Olofsson had 8 goals and 19 points, skating under 15 minutes a game. There has been lots of talk about his wrist injury and how he didn’t feel right until the final couple months of the season. Looking at his season’s production, it makes sense. A lot of it is because he shot over 20% in that stretch but again, like Boldy, if we cut that goal production in half, he still paces for well over 60 points per 82 games (actually, over 70). I also want to mention that Olofsson and Dylan Cozens showed good chemistry down the stretch, even if Olofsson finished the season alongside Tage Thompson. One of the big weaknesses Buffalo has had for several years now is not having a competent second scoring line. They may have found one, and that changes a lot for this team. What about when Jack Quinn shows up? A genuinely exciting time for this franchise. (may3)

16. Robert Thomas: Like a proud papa, it’s always nice to see a player that we had pegged for success finally break out. I talked about Thomas a week ago (as I did Boldy and the next guy on our list) so we won’t go super in-depth here. What was applicable for his full season was largely applicable for his final month-ish of the campaign. By the same token, he posted a massive 27 points in his final 18 games and even if we cut his shooting percentage in half, he’s still well over a point per game. He is rounding into one of the game’s best distributors and with most of their forwards returning next year, he could be in for a big 2022-23. Some more shots would be nice. (may3)

17. Mason Marchment: We talked about Marchment recently so we won’t dig in too deep here. But I did want to point out that over his final five weeks, he led the league in high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and it wasn’t even close – he generated 15% more high-danger shot attempts per minute than the second-place forward (a guy we’ll talk about next). On the season, he finished 7^th in the league in this regard, just ahead of Timo Meier. He also had an impressive stint in the shortened 2021 campaign so this may not be a mirage. The only thing holding back Marchment from significant fantasy success seems to be his role; the lack of PP TOI is an ongoing issue. On the plus side, he brings enough elsewhere to be valuable in our fantasy game. (may3)

18. Nicolas Roy: The guy that finished just behind Marchment in high-danger shot attempts over the final five weeks was Roy. The problem for his production is that he shot 5.6%, and he only posted 6 points in 14 games as a result. He did get over 16 minutes a game on the season, a career-high, and would have likely cracked the 40-point mark had he played a full season. Maybe not monster numbers, but this is a guy that could flirt with two shots/one hit per game next year, and with incoming Vegas cap crunch, he could be in line for a full-time top-6 role. We’ll have to see how things shake out over the coming months, but regular top-6 minutes could mean solid fantasy value for cheap come draft season. (may3)

19. Interesting tidbits from the season:

• It was the highest-scoring season in 26 years at 6.3 goals-per-game.
• Florida scored 340 goals, the most for a team since Pittsburgh in 1995-96 (362)
• 78% of the goals scored this year were at even strength. That’s the highest percentage in 50 years and second most in the expansion era behind 79% in 1972-73
• 102 hat tricks were scored by 84 different players. That’s the most in 29 years. And only once in history did more players score a hat trick. That was in 86 players did it in 1981-82.
• 42% of games were won by a team that trailed. Only two seasons in history had a higher percentage: 46% in 1920-21 and 44% in 2005-06. (may2)

20. Matty Beniers had points in every game he played except one. Nine in 10 games. All of his ES points (five) were alongside Jordan Eberle and Ryan Donato. Donato, who has an expiring (minimum salary) contract, was looking on the fringe of getting another one. But his 10 points in 19 games at the end turned out to be his most productive quarter of the season. He has probably earned another contract, and if he gets lucky and holds onto that spot alongside Beniers, he could surprise. (may2)

21. It was interesting to see Mason Appleton getting tried on the line with P-L Dubois and Kyle Connor during the Jets' last game of the season. Appleton’s return to Winnipeg saw him getting buried on a checking line. Curious to see how the roster shakes out in the fall and where he’ll fit in. Now 26, he’s finally passed the 200-game threshold, making next season his BT one. Meaning, if he’s going to get 45 or 50 points ever in his career, it would be next season. I’m not holding my breath on that one, I’m just saying that he falls into that category. (may2)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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