Top 10 Surprising Seasons From Older Players

Tom Collins

2022-05-09

Every season, there are a few players that come out of nowhere to be a complete shock, and this campaign was no different.

This year may have seen even more than usual, as there were more goals scored this season than in years. There were so many shocking seasons that we’re going to break it up.

This week, we’re looking at the top 10 surprising seasons from players who are at least 30 years old. One theory of mine is that many fantasy general managers become too enamoured with youth. If you’re in a league with many people who feel like that, you can take advantage to help lead to championships, especially through trades. Even if you have Roman Josi, for example, you probably won’t be able to trade him straight up for Adam Fox or Cale Makar. That’s because youth is king, no matter how much that older player might be outperforming the younger generation.

For this list, I’m following hockey-reference’s rules that a player must be 30 years old on a certain date for it to be considered his age-30 season.

10. Sergei Bobrovsky

There were plenty of doubts about the $10-million goalie going into the season. In Yahoo pools, Spencer Knight was drafted higher than Bobrovsky (Knight went on average in the seventh round, Bobrovsky in the 10th), which goes to the mindset of many fantasy general managers. Instead, the 33-year-old Bobrovsky put up excellent numbers right from the start (he allowed two or fewer goals in nine of his first 12 games) and never relinquished the starter’s crease. While some of his final numbers were average (a .913 SV % and a 2.67 GAA), he finished with a league-high 39 wins.

9. Alex Ovechkin

To mangle a Mark Twain quote, the news of Ovi’s demise has been greatly exaggerated. Five to seven years ago, fantasy general managers were speculating that Ovechkin might be ready for a downturn. Their reasoning that his numbers were down, he plays too physical a style and was hitting his 30s (when the majority of players start to see their production diminish) was sound, but completely wrong. The 36-year-old Ovechkin just finished one of his best seasons. Another 50-goal campaign put him as the oldest player to ever score 50 in a season, and he finished this season fourth in goals, third in power-play goals, 16th in points, 21st in power-play points and second in shots. He also put up 155 hits.

8. Brent Burns

Even though Burns doesn’t produce as he used to, he’s still an underrated fantasy option. As a bonus, he has only missed one game total in the past eight years, and that was in 2014-15. He had 54 points in 82 games this year, which was the 12th-highest point total among defensemen, and ahead of sexier picks that are 10-15 years younger than Burns’ 36 years. Burns also put up 18 power-play points (tied for 21st among defensemen), 203 shots (tied for 11th) and 150 blocked shots (tied for 15th).

7. Vladimir Tarasenko

It’s humorous to look back at last season’s expansion draft. Sure, Seattle has done a poor job since being awarded a team, but many thought the Kraken did the proper thing in not selecting Tarasenko. After all, his contract was expensive and he had just spent the last two seasons dealing with injuries that limited him to a total of 34 games. As he was coming off a season where he had 14 points in 24 games, there was concern about what impact the injuries might have on his production. Well, the 30-year-old had a career year, posting 82 points in 75 games (a 90-point pace). His 22 power-play points were two off a career high, and his 3.1 shots per game were his highest in a few years. He did it all while averaging fewer than 17 minutes per game.

6. Mats Zuccarello

His numbers may not be as gaudy as some others on this list, but don’t be fooled by his 79 points. As he missed 12 games with various ailments throughout the year, those 79 points equate to an 82-game pace of 93, an amazing number for the 34-year-old (his previous career-high 82-game pace was 68). For Zuccarello, it all came down to opportunity. He was used consistently on the top power-play unit for the first time in a few years, and his ice time was the highest since 2018-19 when he split time with the Rangers and Stars. He always played with Kirill Kaprizov, which also helps anyone trying to have a career year.

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5. Matt Duchene

I’ve been a big believer for years that Duchene is overhyped and will only perform in contract years. This year went a long way to dispelling that belief. Last year, Duchene had 13 points in 34 games, a 31-point pace and it wouldn’t surprise me if he went undrafted in many one-year pools. This year, the 31-year-old scored 42 goals, 11 higher than his previous career high. His 86 points are way higher than his previous high of 70 points (which both came in contract years). His 2.9 shots per game was a career high. For plus/minus, he finished as a plus for the first time since 2014-15, and for only the fourth time in his 13-year career. His 19:01 per night was the second-highest of his career. Finally, there are his career-high 29 power-play points. He had only three last year and only had 28 in the previous three seasons combined.

4. Jacob Markstrom

The 32-year-old Flames netminder was arguably the best goalie this season. Among goalies with a minimum of 20 starts, Markstrom finished fourth with 37 wins (and only two behind the league leader), fourth in save percentage, third in goals against average, first in shutouts, third in goalie starts, third in assists and third in PIM. In my points-only league where goalies got two points for a win, three more for a shutout and one for an assist, Markstrom finished with 113 points, 18 more than the next closest, Igor Shesterkin, at 95. In another deep dynasty league of mine, he finished as the second-best goalie in fantasy points and fantasy points per game. In basic Yahoo pools, he was the top goalie. Not bad for a netminder that was drafted, on average, as the 27th (not a typo) goalie selected. He was taken behind goalers such as Carter Hart, MacKenzie Blackwood, Kevin Lankinen, Jordan Binnington, Petr Mrazek and Philipp Grubauer.

3. Chris Kreider

When we look back on his career, we may find out that Kreider may have been the most unlikely 50-goal scorer of this generation, if not all-time. Even when you look at one-hit wonders, they had other seasons that were better than Kreider’s second-best year (Gary Leeman had two 30-goal seasons preceding his 51-goal campaign, for example, and Jonathan Cheechoo had a 37-goal year after his 56). Only twice in his career had Kreider had seasons of more than 25 goals, and he had exactly 28 in both of those years. No one could have anticipated 52 goals for the 30-year-old this year. He also finished with 77 points, crushing his previous high of 53. He also set career highs in shots per game (his 3.2 was better than his previous high of 2.5), power-play goals (26 while his previous high was 11), power-play points (35 while his previous high was 14) and ice time (18:43, up from 17:24).

2. Roman Josi

In the previous seven seasons before this one, Josi could be counted on to get a 56-point pace almost exactly. He hit that mark in four of the seven seasons, while in the other three he had 58, 62 and 77. But due to injuries/lockouts/Covid-shortened seasons, his career high was 65 points. So, he has never seemed as big as a threat to get 80. In Dobber’s ramblings two years ago about defensemen who could reach 80 points, Josi was seen as a long-shot (although he was upgraded this year). Still, no one would have chosen him to reach 80 points going into the year. That’s why reaching 96 points, the first defenseman to reach 95 since 1992-93 when Phil Housley had 97, was a complete shocker.

1. Nazem Kadri

Even if there had been no age limits on this list, Kadri still would have been number one. A year ago, he had 32 points in 56 games, which would have been a 47-point pace. In his nine previous years to this one, he only put up higher than a 60-point pace on two occasions (a 61-point pace in 2016-17 and a 75-point pace in 2012-13, when a lockout-shortened season reduced the number of games to 48. This year, everything clicked for the 31-year-old. His ice time was a career-high 19:15, almost three minutes a night more than last season. His 3.5 shots per game were a career-high, half a shot per game more than a year ago. His 29 power-play points demolished his previous career high of 18. He finished with 87 points in 71 games, and probably would have 100 points if he didn’t miss about three weeks of action near the end of the campaign.

2 Comments

  1. all-in 2022-05-09 at 14:28

    Pavelski not in this list?
    For me he’s the complete surprise, having his best carerr year at 37 years’ old!

    • Tom Collins 2022-05-11 at 07:19

      I looked at him, but last year he had a 75-point pace. This year was 81. As he wasn’t that far off last year’s pace, I didn’t have him on the list.

      But I love Pavelski. Traded for him in a keeper pool this season.

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