Ramblings: Jarry Practicing; Lindholm Ready; Calder Finalists; Rangers Extend Series; Kylington, Karlsson, and More – May 12

Michael Clifford

2022-05-12

Mason Marchment was missing from Florida's morning skate on Wednesday and missed the game last night. Maxim Mamin took his place in the lineup, skating on the third line with Sam Reinhart and Anton Lundell. Marchment had a great season for the Panthers, but this team should be deep enough to overcome this one injury.

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An important development for the Penguins, even as they head into Game 5 with a chance to close out the series:

The first bit of big news from the actual game was this hit that Sidney Crosby took around the midway point of the second period.

He left the game and did not return. That is obviously very bad news for him given his history, let's just hope it was more precautionary than anything.

A wild second period that featured four goals in three minutes led to a 3-3 game heading into the final frame. Filip Chytil scooped a loose puck and fired it over Louis Domingue's shoulder to lift the Rangers to a 4-3 lead, and eventually the 5-3 win thanks to an empty netter. They extend their season by at least two more days as Game 6 is set for Friday night back in Pittsburgh.

Alexis Lafrenière had a goal and an assist in the win. He now has four points in five playoff games.

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On the topic of good injury news:

This doesn't come a moment too soon. The team's defence with either Hampus Lindholm or Charlie McAvoy off the ice takes a huge hit, and their offence does too. They will need Lindholm to be the guy he can be if they hope to slow down the high-octane Hurricanes and force a Game 7.

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The heart-stopping Florida team managed another comeback of sorts in Game 5. Falling behind 3-0, largely thanks to a pair of goals from T.J. Oshie, the Panther stormed back with three goals in eight minutes during the second period to give us a 3-3 game heading to the final frame.

Carter Verhaeghe scored early in the third period and then assisted on Claude Giroux's second tally of the playoffs to salt this game away 5-3. Verhaeghe had five points in the game with two goals and three assists, all primary points, and all at 5-on-5. It was a remarkable game from him and he, along with Sam Reinhart, are big reasons why the Panthers are on the verge of a second round appearance.

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Darnell Nurse got one game for this headbutt:

Launching yourself at someone like you're Ralph Wiggum going through a living room window feels a bit more than a one-game suspension, but it is the playoffs.  

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The Calder finalists for rookie of the year were released on Wednesday:

No real complaints from me. This is probably the right top-3 to put on the finalists list, even if I think Anton Lundell should be up there. But I will say that had Matthew Boldy played 70 games instead of 47, there's a good chance he's here instead of one of the others. He could have threatened 60 points while playing good defence for a Cup contender. Last week I wrote about how, on a per-minute basis, Boldy was one of the most impactful players in the league, not just among rookies. The Wild have a big incoming cap crunch so it may be a couple years before we get a team as good as this season's again, but he could also see a big increase in his power-play role.

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In a Ramblings last week, we discussed a bunch of forwards who saw jumps in shot quality as measured by a variety of statistical categories. Those include things like scoring chances, high-danger shot attempts, and individual expected goals. That was only half the story, as we are turning our gaze to defencemen this week. We will be using stats from Natural Stat Trick and our Frozen Tools.

The role of defencemen has changed drastically over the last decade. As recently as 2017-18, defencemen averaged 0.317 points per game across the league. This past season saw that jump up to 0.347 points per game. While the scoring jump across the league could account for some of that, the magnitude of jump in defencemen scoring per game was nearly twice as large as the jump of goals per game per team across the league. In other words, the rise in scoring across the league helped defencemen score more, but anyone who has watched the NHL closely for the last 5+ years could say the same thing: defencemen are becoming much more involved with the offence on a nightly basis.

Multi-layered passing plays, neutral zone transitions, creating turnovers to start the rush, all these are things that nearly every defenceman in the league needs to be capable of at least attempting. Gone are the days of a Roman Polak or Douglas Murray having their main roles being cross-checking people in front of the net. That's still part of it, but there is a lot more to being an NHL defenceman these days, whether on the top pair or the third pair.

To that end, let's look at some defencemen with big shot jumps in 2021-22. Specifically, we're going to look at the shot quality metrics we mentioned in the opening paragraph, per 60 minutes, and we're going to be looking at all strengths. Because we're looking at three seasons' worth of data, there may be some younger players not included because of lack of sample or ice time. All good? Wonderful. Let's get to it, beginning with jumps in individual expected goals.

Oliver Kylington

This may not come as a huge surprise as anyone that has watched Kylington and the Flames for a few years now saw a big jump in his play in 2021-22. He had 16 points in 95 career games heading into this season and nearly doubled that output with 31 points in 73 contests. A higher-scoring environment (across the league and within his team) helps here, but that doesn't give the young blue liner his proper due. The Swede's offensive shot-quality impact has improved for three straight seasons, culminating in what we saw this season, a mark that put him inside the 75th percentile of the league. His issue is that he'll likely remain the #3 option behind Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson unless he has another big jump, so his fantasy upside is capped for now. But he improved his team's offence, and his own, when he was on the ice, and that's a big development for him and the Flames.

Erik Karlsson

Despite the Sharks being generally under-skilled through three quarters of their roster, Karlsson had a very nice rebound season in his own right. He had huge gains in his personal shot-quality metrics, and his offensive play-driving impacts, as measured by Evolving Hockey, were among the best in the league. His defence has fallen off considerably, depending on your view of his defensive ability 4-5 years ago, but the offence is back. Playing a full-ish season is still a big question for him and the quality of the roster in front of him is still dubious. With that said, more of this from Karlsson will go a long way to supporting his fantasy value next year and in the years to come.

Nicolas Hague  

It wasn't really a great season for Hague in the fantasy realm, as he missed 30 games and put up just 14 points in 52 contests, a fall from his 17 in 52 last year. He was 1 of 9 defencemen with a jump in ixG/60 of at least 0.1, though, and shooting 3.4% was his downfall for goal scoring. Another issue is that his offensive impacts took a bit of a dive this season compared to 2021, but it's a wonder how healthy he was during the season. At the least, he was creating better opportunities for himself and that is a good sign for offensive involvement moving forward. Like Kylington, though, he'll be no higher than the #3 option on the blue line, and that's a problem for fantasy value.

Aaron Ekblad

His inclusion here is to just kind of hammer home that this is not strictly a defense-first blue liner. He has (or had, maybe it's not as strong as it once was) a reputation as a defensive defenceman, and that's just not the reality. Fantasy owners caught on this year, which is why he had a high ADP among rearguards, but the public can be a bit slow to catch up. Either way, this makes three seasons in a row that his offensive impacts were similar to his defensive impacts, showing his well-rounded game. He plays monster minutes, should get his PP role back next regular season, and can generally shoot for a high percentage. His increase in shot quality should only help that last part moving forward. He could be on the verge of a 20-goal season.

Thomas Chabot

Ottawa's top defenceman saw a jump in shot rate this year, and with it a jump in shot quality. That is usually a good combination, but he shot just 4% against a career mark of 6% heading into 2021-22. Had he shot 6%, he would have cracked double-digit goals even without playing in 60 games. The constant worry with Ottawa is that the team will never be surrounded by the talent it needs to elevate their game because management does not spend the money it should. They are continually relying on spare parts from other teams or young players to round out the roster. Until they start genuinely adding talent from outside the organization, we should have concerns about Chabot's upside. And that is from a fantasy analyst that is enamoured with their top four young forwards.

Carson Soucy

This might not come as a huge surprise as Soucy posted double-digit goals, and that gets noticed in the fantasy game. But, relatively, speaking, Soucy saw a 50% jump in ixG/60 this season, and that helps explain part of his huge 10.3% shooting. We should note that he has 172 regular season games under his belt, more than two seasons, and is a career 8.6% shooter. Seattle is bereft of top-end talent and Matty Beniers can only do so much. We need to see a jump in ice time from Soucy in order for him to be reliable in the fantasy game, but if he does, double-digit goals and triple-digit peripherals could very well be in order.

Jamie Oleksiak

We are putting another Seattle defenceman on this list because it presents a nice dichotomy from the player we just discussed. The Big Rig was top-10 among defenders for the largest jump in individual expected goals, but he shot an abysmal 1.1%. For reference, his three-year average heading into 2021-22 was an even 6%. Had he shot anywhere close to that, he could have tied his career-high in goals and passed the 20-point mark for the first time in his 11 seasons. It presents a warning for what can happen to Soucy: generating better shot quality is not a guarantee of generating more goals. It just increases the likelihood. For fantasy owners, Oleksiak could be a nice deeper grab in multi-cat leagues. A full 82-game season could see him threaten for 100 blocks and 200 hits, at the least putting up somewhere around 75 blocks and 150 hits. If he were to combine that with 5 goals and 20 points, we have a nice depth multi-cat option here. He should be basically free in drafts this coming September and doesn't turn 30 years old until December. Where he is drafted vs. where Soucy is drafted will be something to monitor.

Tomorrow, we'll look at defencemen with jumps in scoring chances.

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