Ramblings: Night Three of the NHL Playoffs; Improved Shot Quality for Danault, Dubois, Strome, and Others – May 5

Michael Clifford

2022-05-05

The big news from Pittsburgh’s dramatic overtime win from Game 1 against New York was the health of goalie Casey DeSmith. He left during the overtime, turning the net over to Louis Domingue, as DeSmith appeared to be injured. We got a little clarity – for what that’s worth in the playoffs – on both him and Rickard Rakell:

Rakell took a hard hit and left the game, which jumbled up the lines a bit. At least it’s better news than ‘out for the playoffs’.

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With Carolina up 1-0, David Pastrnak made significant contact – it appeared unintentional – with Antti Raanta:

The net-minder left the game and did not return. It was left to Pyotr Kochetkov to hold down the fort for the Hurricanes in his first playoff game, just his fourth NHL game.

Continuing the injury train, Andrei Svechnikov laid a massive hit on Hampus Lindholm, forcing the blue liner from the game:

Lindholm also left the game and did not return.

Carolina had control of the game, even if Boston had their chances, and skated out with a 5-2 win. The power play looked great for the Hurricanes and that, combined with Boston's lack of discipline, pushed the Bruins into an 0-2 series hole.

Each of Patrice Bergeron, Nino Niederreiter, and Sebastian Aho had a pair of goals in this game, with the latter scoring the game-winning marker. Tony DeAngelo had three assists in the win and over eight minutes of PPTOI, a testament to Boston's inability to stay out of the penalty box.

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Tampa Bay was able to even the series with Toronto 1-1 in a fashion that didn't seem possible after Game 1: the power play. All of Victor Hedman, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov tallied with the man advantage, leading the Lightning to a 5-3 win. Hedman had a goal and three assists in a game where he was utterly dominant, and not just because of the points.

Kucherov finished the night with his PP tally and two assists.

We would be remiss not to mention this unreal save from Andrei Vasilevskiy:

Turnovers was the name of the game in this one as the Lightning seemed to manage several odd-man rushes which didn't always lead to goals, but to pressure and sometimes penalties. The Leafs will need to clean up that defence against a team nearly as potent offensively as their own.

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One thing that is clear about the NHL over the last few years is that shot quality is really starting to take precedent. Not that teams and players ever discarded it, but it's obvious that plays involving multiple passes, transition work, reducing point shots etc. are being prioritized. Per Hockey Reference, over the last 50 years, there were eight seasons where the league average save percentage was higher than .911, and all eight were from 2010-2018. Since the start of the 2018-19 season, it's dropped from .910 (two years in a row), to .908, and then .907 this past campaign. Seam passes, back-door passes, rushes, and other shot-quality-driven plays are being emphasized not only for top scoring lines, but all through the lineup.

That has been one of the side effects of hockey's analytics revolution, and it has a ripple effect in the fantasy game. Just telling a player to generate better shots isn't helpful, there needs to be a plan to get it done, and the skill to execute said plan. Not every player can do that, and that separation in quality could mean the difference between a 15-goal season and a 25-goal season for players we view as similar.

To that end, it's worth looking at which players have gotten better at generating shot quality. We are going to take a player's two-year average from 2019-21 and compare that average to what they produced in 2021-22. One season doesn't qualify as a pattern, but it could help point us in the right direction for players that could be improving their skills necessary to execute their coach's offensive plan. If they can persist, maybe they are a burgeoning goal scorer, or raising an established ceiling. We are going to use high-danger, rush shot, and expected goal data from Natural Stat Trick. We are going to be looking at 5-on-5 play per 60 minutes only, and because we're looking at the last three years, some younger players are going to naturally be excluded for lack of sample size.

Phillip Danault

Some of the players listed won't be a surprise, and Danault certainly applies here. He had career-highs in virtually every category related to goal-scoring, including just raw goal totals. There will be another couple Kings forwards further down this list, and even Anze Kopitar and Viktor Arvidsson had improvements in these areas. This was a team-wide philosophy, and it paid off with a playoff trip. Whether Danault can maintain it is another matter, but most of this roster will be back next year, and likely improved with their kids starting to make an impact. We should expect another 20-goal season.

Pierre-Luc Dubois

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Winnipeg's second-line centre set a career-high in goals with 28, something that seems to have gone a bit overlooked. A big reason for that was his power-play scoring, sure, but he also improved his expected goals generated more than almost any other forward in the league (fifth-most, actually). Oddly enough, he shot a career-low 5.6% at 5-on-5, and doubling that would bring him more in line with his career norms. We could see him pass 30 goals next year if he can maintain a solid PP scoring rate.

Artturi Lehkonen

Another player who set a career-best in goals with 19, Lehkonen probably gets to 20 if he plays 80 games. He shot a career-best 12.3% as well, but just 10.5% at 5-on-5, and he's cracked 10% twice before in his career. If he stays in Colorado and on the second line, he is in a great scoring environment. Lack of PPTOI will cap his upside, but we could be seeing him pass 20 goals next year for the first time in his career. Combine that with a reasonable amount of hits, and there's depth fantasy value breaking through here.

Troy Terry

Seeing Terry's name here probably isn't a surprise, considering he scored 37 goals in 75 games, having scored just 15 in his first 129 regular season contests. His 19.3% shooting is excessive, but even 11% would have pushed him over the 20-goal mark. Anaheim is an improving team but repeating 35+ goals will be difficult. Regardless, it seems Terry has turned a corner in his development and is likely now a genuine 25-goal threat. If he can start finding chemistry with Trevor Zegras, the Ducks may have figured out their new top line.

Adrian Kempe

This is one of the other Kings skater we had to discuss. He had 26 even-strength goals in 2021-22 after scoring 28 across the previous three seasons. The key here was shooting just 10.8% at 5-on-5, lower than 2020-21's mark of 11.1%, and far off his career-high of 14.7% in 2017-18. He, along with many teammates, started generating better quality shots (and more of them), and it paid off handsomely in his goal totals. If the Los Angeles power play can improve, and he maintains his shot rate/quality improvements, it would not be a surprise to see another 30-goal season out of him in short order.

Elias Lindholm

It shouldn't be much of a shock to see Elias Lindholm on the list for biggest improvements in high-danger shot attempts. The entire Flames top line had career years, and they were one of the most dominant lines in the league all season long. The issue here, obviously, is that he may not get both wingers back next season and mixing up that chemistry could lead to a downturn. We'll see what happens this summer.

Trevor Moore

At the risk of listing too many players from the same team, we have to include a guy who set career-highs across the board in 2021-22. Funny enough, like Dubois, he had a career-worst shooting percentage at 5-on-5 despite sharp increases in shot quality metrics, including high-danger shot attempts. Shooting just 7.5% would have pushed him over the 20-goal mark. With the band back together next year, he could get to 20 goals for the first time in his career, and he doesn't need power-play time to do it.

Jeff Skinner

File this one under: duh. It appears that playing on the top line with talented players does wonders for a guy's scoring, as opposed to skating in the bottom-6. That goes especially for one of the top 5-on-5 scorers from 2010-2019. Skinner cracked the 30-goal mark for the fifth time in his career, and his shooting percentage was only the fourth-highest of his career. He plays for a team on the rise and as long as he stays in the top-6, preferably on the top line, there's no reason to expect a huge drop in goal scoring like we saw the previous two seasons.

Dylan Strome

It would appear that playing with Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane can do wonders for creating quality shots. He set a five-year high in high-danger shot attempts, and it led to a career-high in goals/60 and total goals (22) despite just 69 games played. The problem is that over the last three seasons, Chicago scores at half the rate when Strome is on the ice without Kane than when he's with him. He is very much dependent on his wingers, if only because the rest of the roster is without high-end talent. Buyer beware heading into next season.

Timo Meier

The league leader in rush shot attempts per 60 minutes was our neighbourhood Shark here. The funny part is he still had a five-year low in shooting percentage at 5-on-5. What helped him a lot in 2021-22 was finally getting the PPTOI he should have had for a few years now; he finished the season above two minutes of 5-on-4 PPTOI per game for the first time in his career. It is hard to say what will happen next year because this is a team bereft of talent outside four or five players, and if he's anywhere but the top line, there may not be enough to help him get back to 35 goals. We will see how the offseason unfolds.

Steven Stamkos

Yes, a guy who cracked 40 goals and 100 points after a couple down-ish seasons is on this list, but there is concern here. Like Meier, he was elite off the rush this season. He also shot 18.5% at 5-on-5, a five-year high. Now, his shot is lethal, and he has long relied on that elite shot to out-perform his scoring chance metrics. But any sort of age-related decline kicking in (he'll be in his age-32 season) could be bad news for his goal totals. Draft season will be interesting.

Jesper Bratt

There were a few Devils that had great rush-attempt rates this year, and Jesper Bratt was among them. He is another player that set career-highs across the board, but it has been a progression for him over the last few years, culminating in this near-point-per-game season. He didn't have a monster goal total with 26, but he also did that scoring just three PP goals. If his 5-on-5 play persists – and it should, with the Devils being a vastly improved offensive roster – and the PP production picks up, 30 goals is well within reach in 2022-23.  

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