Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. Let's set the stage and dive into today's Round 2 Stanley Cup matchups:

 Antti Raanta earned his first career playoff shutout (21 saves) to ensure that the Hurricanes keep home ice advantage as they head into MSG on Sunday. Raanta is rounding into form with three consecutive quality starts along with quality starts in four of his last five games. He has been especially lethal at home during the playoffs, allowing one goal or less in five of six games in Raleigh. As long as he is getting the job done, the Canes have no need to rush Frederik Andersen back.

In the two games in Carolina, the Rangers have scored a grand total of one goal. At least Igor Shesterkin seems to have put his first-round struggles behind him, having earned quality starts in each of his last four games. Shesterkin stopped 20 of 21 shots he faced in the loss. (may21)

2. The hands, the feet… this Connor McDavid guy has it all. Along with the above goal and an assist in the Oil's Game 2 win to tie the Flames at 1-1, McDavid also finished with five shots and four hits.

Here’s a McDavid stat you probably didn’t expect: The Oilers captain has at least four hits in six playoff games this season, including each of his last three games. In addition, McDavid has also taken at least five shots in each of his last four games. Oh yeah, and he still has multiple points in all but one game during these playoffs, as well as goals in five consecutive games. If Edmonton wins this series, it’s because McDavid has willed his way to that victory. In the meantime, he’s showing a multicategory flex that could extend his value even further if it carries over to the regular season. Look out. (may21)

3. The Lightning might be considered worn out and injured, yet they continue to find ways to win with their fourth consecutive victory in the playoffs. The Bolts as a team blocked 24 Panthers shots on Thursday, including 15 in the third period alone. The Lightning were once again without Brayden Point for Game 2, opting to use 11 forwards and seven defensemen. This is a practice that seems to be used more often these days.

Since the Lightning haven’t been considered a top-tier Stanley Cup favorite this season, we may now be finally truly appreciating Andrei Vasilevskiy for what he’s worth. The Bolts netminder stopped 36 of 37 shots in registering his fourth consecutive win and third consecutive quality start. Vasilevskiy has allowed just one goal in each of his last three games, forcing some potent offenses in Toronto and Florida to dry up. His save percentages over those three games are .968, .971, and .973. 

One of the most surprising stats of the playoffs: The Panthers are the only playoff team that has yet to score a power-play goal in the playoffs. After going 0-for-4 in Game 2, the Panthers power play is now 0-for-25 and counting. This was a team that had the fifth-best power play during the regular season (24.4%), so lack of power-play conversion has suddenly emerged as an issue. Florida will need to figure him out on Tampa home ice for Game 3 today; otherwise, their season will end sooner than they hope.

4. The Blue Jackets have resigned Joonas Korpisalo to a one-year extension worth $1.3 million. Korpisalo shouldn’t have been on any fantasy teams this season because of a 4.15 GAA and .877 SV%. The numbers may have had something to do with a hip issue, which he had surgery on in April. Regardless, the Blue Jackets seem to be banking on the devil that they know as opposed to dipping into the free agent market for a backup to Elvis Merzlikins. (may21)

5. Rick Bowness isn’t returning as the coach of the Dallas Stars next season. Ian Gooding wrote about the fantasy implications here. (may21)

And earlier in the week, Vegas was all over the news on Monday as the Golden Knights fired coach Pete DeBoer. Dobber’s analysis on that impact can be found here.

Not much to add to what Dobber said until we see who the replacement is. Whoever it is, they need to turn this power play around. In the three years under DeBoer, Vegas was 18^th in goals/60 minutes at 5-on-5, which seems impossible with all the top-end talent they have. That average was dragged down by an injury-plagued 2021-22, but this team should perennially be in the top-10. Everything else should work itself out. (may17)

6. Moving from Carolina to New Jersey hurt Dougie Hamilton‘s fantasy value, as his scoring numbers were lower across the board. Over seven more games, Hamilton’s point total decreased by 12, his plus-minus swung from plus-20 to minus-18, and he registered just seven power-play points all season. Injuries also factored in, with Hamilton missing 20 games. Yet over a full season, Hamilton would have been on pace for just 40 points – fantasy worthy, but much lower than was expected.

There are several reasons to be on board for a Hamilton comeback next season. For starters, he has now had a full year to adjust to the Devils system. Led by Jack Hughes, New Jersey’s scoring appears to be on the rise. Also, Hamilton maintained a similar shot total from last season (3.2 – 3.3 SOG/GP) – a shot total that is his strongest peripheral category. In addition, Hamilton could simply be in for a better season just by remaining healthy. Finally, the Devils have invested enough money in Hamilton, so he’ll receive many more opportunities to succeed on the power play and other offensive situations.

Hamilton will probably fall in next season’s fantasy drafts. If you know what he can contribute in multiple categories, you might be able to pick him in a spot where he could provide great value. (may21)

7. David Perron helped fantasy leaguers win championships (hello), and now he’s doing his part for playoff poolies in their quests. Perron scored a pair of goals to give him seven goals in the playoffs, tying him for second in that category. He’s turning 34 years old next week, and it seems like he’s been around forever since he jumped into the NHL at age 19 straight out of the draft. Perron is proof that the aging curve is not the same for every player, as his best seasons have taken place over the last five years. (may20)

8. Jordan Binnington is doing his best 2019 Winnington impersonation. Binnington made 30 saves, giving him his fifth consecutive quality start of the playoffs. In fact, that’s all that Binnington has done in the playoffs, having allowed three goals just once (his 51-save effort in Game 1). Entering Saturday's Game 3 against the Avs, only Jake Oettinger had a better save percentage than Binnington (.948 SV%) among goalies that have played at least two games.

Binnington’s sudden hot streak after a subpar regular season means that the Blues are more likely to let Ville Husso move on as a UFA, though we will still have to see how the offseason plays out. Prior to that, the Blues had to be thinking about a way to move on from Binnington with a trade or perhaps even a buyout. Although Husso's larger sample size of regular-season success could factor in, Binnington has five more years at $6 million per. Not an ideal contract to move. (may20)

9. The Jack Adams Award finalists were announced on Thursday: Andrew Brunette, Gerard Gallant, and Darryl Sutter. Whether they are the three best candidates for the award is certainly up for debate, but all three seemed to perform a tremendous job with their teams this season. (may20)

Two days earlier, the league also announced their Selke Trophy finalists, with Elias Lindholm, Patrice Bergeron, and Aleksander Barkov earning the honors. No fantasy relevance here, but it is interesting to see that the second best defensive forward on the Flames’ top line was nominated for the Selke just because he plays center. (may18)

As for the Lady Byng Trophy, I am still not sure why the hubbub for an award for players that don’t take penalties when all broadcasters talk about is needing toughness or snarl or [insert punch-y adjective here], but this is the NHL where very little makes sense anyway. Your finalists: Kyle Connor, Jaccob Slavin and Jared Spurgeon.No arguments here. It’s not an award worth arguing about. (may19)

10. Just before the playoffs began, I wrote a Twitter thread outlining why Evan Rodrigues was a major key to the Penguins going on a deep run. He had a great start to the 2021-22 season, then his production cratered over the final 30-40 games, before coming alive again in the postseason. He had five points in seven tilts in their series with the Rangers and would probably still be playing hockey if the Penguins weren’t forced to go with their AHL goalie for five or so of the seven games.

Rodrigues is a pending UFA and with new Pittsburgh management, it is not a lock that he returns. It is worth looking at his season, breaking it down by segments, whether this is sustainable, and what he could bring to a new team. Follow the link for my deep dive on Rodrigues. Most of the data is from Natural Stat Trick and our own Frozen Tools. (may19)

11. Next week is going to be busy for me, as I have my usual Ramblings day on the 25^th, as well as pushing out the latest updates to the salary cap skater rankings on the 25^th for skaters and 26^th for goalies. On top of that, with all the season being finalized and having had the time to update all of my spreadsheets, I will also be releasing my updated salary projections. Keep an eye out for all of that!

Having worked on all of the cap rankings, salary projections, and the like, I have a few thoughts related to cap leagues and free agency this summer that I am going to dump here. First off, it seems like this is the case every year, but there’s an especially shallow group of both impact centers and defensemen this year. 

First off, it seems like this is the case every year, but there’s an especially shallow group of both impact centers and defensemen this year. Center-wise, we have Vincent Trocheck, Ryan Strome, Claude Giroux (who seems destined to end up in his hometown of Ottawa) and Nazem Kadri as second line options. We also have wild cards like Evgeni Malkin who has said he wants to play another three years, but Pittsburgh may not be able to afford him, and Patrice Bergeron, who is as likely to retire as he is to return as a Bruin. With only four top-six centers available (maybe five if you count Dylan Strome) there’s a market shortage relative to the number of teams that will be seeking help down the middle. The teams that initially come to mind are Boston, Minnesota (lacking cap space), Colorado, Columbus, NY Rangers, Anaheim, Buffalo and Pittsburgh if Malkin doesn’t return.

Something to keep in mind if you are a cap league owner of Trocheck, Kadri, either Strome, or even the likes of Andrew Copp, Nick Paul, or Max Domi. (may18)

11. Over on the wings there is a lot more depth on the FA list this year from the top down, starting with a pair of Flames wingers who are both projected near $10 million. Odds are both Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk will re-sign which then makes Filip Forsberg the big wild card, as it doesn’t seem like any guarantee that he is back in Nashville.

Forsberg is a player who broke out just in time for his big paycheck, but everyone has been expecting him to make that jump to a point per game player who can score 40 goals. This is the kind of performance that should worry you before a big payday, however his underlying numbers actually all look fairly reasonable. Forsberg’s personal underlying numbers last season were excellent, with high IPPs, a few extra points from lucky secondary assists, and over 10 shots per 60 minutes of ice time. This year, he again put up his 10 shots per 60 minutes, but his personal numbers actually dropped slightly. The reason that Forsberg’s numbers jumped this past season was because of a career high shooting percentage of 18.6%, and a team shooting percentage of over 11% for the first time in his career (double what the team put up last year with him on the ice). All that to say, should all the numbers normalize, Forsberg could put up this kind of performance again.

The problem is that most fantasy owners who don’t watch the Predators (98% of you) wouldn’t be aware that the Predators actually had a great offense this past season. They were 12^th overall in goals for, and none of the teams ahead of them in that column are going to have any cap space to even consider putting an offer in on Forsberg in free agency. That means we’re likely going to see the team numbers drop back down closer to where the Predators were in 2020-21, meaning that even if Forsberg’s personal underlying numbers are higher, and he is healthy (a big if) then he should only be expected to score about 70 points. That’s a little low for what my numbers are projecting as an $8 million man. (may18)

13. On defense, I think we see something similar. The top names are all puck movers, but aside from the 35-year-old Kris Letang, none of them are the kind you want as your number-one guy. John Klingberg, Tony DeAngelo, Ben Chiarot, Josh Manson, and Mark Giordano all make for reasonable complimentary defensemen in the two-to-four range on a depth chart, but there are no number one-guys available like Alex Pietrangelo and Dougie Hamilton the last two years. That means not only are the limited number of defensemen available going to be overpaid, but they will likely also be pigeonholed into slots that aren’t the greatest for their production, and they will be over-extended one way or another. (may18)

14. In net, we have the usual goalie carousel shaping up, with Toronto, Colorado, Edmonton, Chicago, New Jersey, and possibly Montreal looking for a starting goalie. On the market we have Darcy Kuemper, Jack Campbell, Ville Husso, Joonas Korpisalo, and Marc-Andre Fleury free to choose their situation, while there are other options on the trade market such as Alexandar Georgiev, Petr Mrazek, Semyon Varlamov, and possibly one of the duo in Washington. The goalie values shouldn’t change too much in terms of starters to backups, but like last year, the goalie who ends up as Colorado’s starter is going to shoot up draft boards, while there are always a few who will get caught in a platoon situation. It’s impossible to predict ahead of time though, except to be cautious of another Colorado goalie chasing the money on a lesser team, so be wary of overpaying for Kuemper next year. (may18)

15. Sticking with the goalies, two of the top goalie prospects in the world have inked their entry level deals. Both Yaroslav Askarov and Jesper Wallstedt signed their ELCs and should be making their North American debuts next year. (may18)

Regarding Wallstedt: A reminder that because of the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyouts, the team is losing $12.7M off the cap in 2022-23, and $14.7M in each of the two seasons after. They have roughly $7M in cap space but if they re-sign Kevin Fiala, that’ll probably eat up almost all of it. If they don’t, they lose arguably their best offensive player they have outside of Kirill Kaprizov. The next few seasons are going to be fascinating because guys like Wallstedt, Rossi, Boldy, and more are going to need to be near-stars for this team to come anywhere near contention. (may17)

16. As is the case each playoffs after teams are eliminated, we get a lot of information about injuries guys were playing through. Some are more serious than others, but there are always players that have been dealing with some nagging issue, and it’s our chance to find out. Let’s go through some of the notable ones.

– Minnesota defenseman Matt Dumba played with something that is reminiscent (but not the same) of Patrice Bergeron years ago.

Wild beat reporter, Michael Russo: In Nashville first meeting last month, Dumba sustained a dislocated rib, a broken rib and that caused a punctured lung. Was in dire straits, had trouble breathing and taken to hospital. Dumba said he was playing "no matter what" in playoffs.

I’m not going to worry about the timeline of when this happened and when he could have been healthy. He only took three weeks off and was back for playoffs. Man, oh man. (may17)

– Next, why Viktor Arvidsson was not a factor in the playoffs.

Kings' reporter, Lisa Dillman: Arvidsson herniated disc. Will need surgery.

Anyone that has done the same can sympathize. Lisa Dillman would go on to say his timeline is 3-5 months, so it seems there’s a reasonable chance of being ready for the start of the regular season. (may17)

While we’re talking about the Kings. Dillman: Doughty said the wrist issue was a tendon tear.

That he might have given it a try in a month’s time seems to indicate he’ll be fine for training camp. Of course, we’ll await official word from the team, or him, at some point in the offseason. (may17)

– Brad Marchand was not immune to injury. Matt Porter: Marchand hurt his AC joint on Garnet Hathaway hit. Played through it. (may17)

We got a bit of clarification on this: Hip surgeries are great for the player but for fantasy, we need to be cautious here. We’ll wait to see what this develops into. (may19)

Staying with Boston, Matt Grzelcyk is also injured. Fluto Shinzawa: Grzelcyk played with a dislocated shoulder. Will need surgery. 

Being healthy for the start of next year is big for Grzelcyk, who is one of the better puck movers the team has on the blue line. (may17)

– Vegas didn’t get to the playoffs and part of it was injuries to Mark Stone. We got some clarity on this: GM Kelly McCrimmon on Mark Stone: Mark will "quite likely" have back surgery on Wednesday and would be available for training camp.

That he should be ready for camp is a real good sign. Back injuries are always tricky, though. (may17)

Stone probably felt like he was carrying a boulder on his back this season, as a chronic back injury resulted in Stone missing over half of his team’s games. His April return to the Vegas lineup seemed like a desperation move for a team trying to avoid missing the playoffs. That showed in his output, where he registered only a goal and an assist over nine games while he appeared to be less than 100 percent. With those numbers, you might as well have kept him on IR.

Stone’s back injury has dated back to the 2021 Conference Final, when he didn’t record a single point in the six-game series against Montreal. The good news is that he recently underwent back surgery and is expected to be ready for next season. Even with the back injury, Stone still produced at a 66-point pace over the entire season. Having said that, he is now 30 and is part of a team that has multiple core players over that age. It will be interesting to see how Stone and the rest of that team responds to unexpectedly missing the playoffs. Having a healthy Jack Eichel for a full season might work wonders. (may21)

17. We had a wild weekend of hockey last week with five Games 7 on Saturday and Sunday. Depending on your allegiance, it was either a great weekend or a not-great weekend, though as a neutral fan, it was just a lot of fun. Follow the link as we take some time to go over the five teams bounced in those five games, the work they have to do this offseason, and a way-too-early outlook at the fantasy outlook for 2022-23. Cap data from Cap Friendly and player data from Natural Stat Trick and our Frozen Tools. (may17)

18. I felt that the Leafs were the better team in pretty much every game of the first-round series against the Lightning, with the exception of about three different first periods. And while Jack Campbell was fine in Game 6 and great in Game 7, I do think Kyle Dubas’ failure to upgrade goaltending over the past year was the Achilles heel in Games 2 and 4. The rest of the roster was great – probably Top 3 in the entire league this season.

I hope, for the organization’s sake, that they don’t tear things apart. Address goaltending, upgrade the defense. If that costs a key forward, so be it. But try to do it without costing either of the Big 2. In the end, goaltending didn’t save them in Games 2 or 4, and Alex Kerfoot cost them Game 6. That weird interference call cost them Game 7. Sure, it’s interference but can you remember a play like this getting called at such a critical time?

What was different in Toronto’s loss this year as opposed to prior years, to me was their poise. Even when they were down 3-0, they played as if everything was under control. The passing was never panicky. Perhaps they were too relaxed. But Tampa was also poised, and that comes from winning two Cups. They’ve been there before and know how to shut it down when they need to. The Tampa – Florida series is going to be something. The Panthers have Toronto’s offense, but they also have an experienced goaltender. But do you want to bet against the Lightning? (may16)

19. Dustin Brown has played his last NHL game, as Ian touched upon yesterday. To me, the Kings are on the tail-end of a rebuild and made the playoffs a year ahead of schedule. That obviously bodes well for the rebuild, and I think what pushed them over the top were three things: 1. The signing of Philip Danault 2. The trade for Viktor Arvidsson 3. The emergence of Trevor Moore. So yes, that entire line. What a bonus!

Jonathan Quick has one more year left on his contract at $5.8M. Do they buy him out and go after Darcy Kuemper? The market on UFA goaltenders is slim this year – MA Fleury, Jack Campbell and Thomas Greiss are the other notables. Do they trust Cal Petersen to bounce back? Quick was hot and cold in the playoffs, with four Quality Starts, but it may have been enough to prevent getting bought out after he had such a horrendous second half to the season. (may16)

20. It’s hard to say what this Pittsburgh team will look like next season. Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Casey DeSmith and Evan Rodrigues are each UFAs. Malkin makes $9.5M and even at 35 you have to think he’s going to match that on the open market. Then again, he hinted that he has enough money, so perhaps he takes a discount and stays. Rust at $3.5M has been a steal, so you know he’s getting a raise. Somewhere. Letang makes $7.25M and at 35 he’s still probably coming close to that number, depending on term. The Penguins pay four other defensemen over $4M, so keeping Letang will be tough.

Prediction: I can see Malkin and Rodrigues staying, while the other three go. (Rodrigues had a great postseason with five points in seven games.) (may16)

21. I was lucky enough to draft Vladimir Tarasenko in two of my fantasy teams. Both times I was able to draft him after pick 100, and in both leagues, he delivered better value than I expected. His thrice-repaired shoulder was a major hurdle in his return to form, enough so that the Seattle Kraken passed on an opportunity to pick him in the expansion draft. The rumors that he had requested a trade and would remain unhappy in St. Louis also didn’t help. Yet in this spot I needed a right wing, and he was the player who could deliver the highest ceiling at that position in that spot.

On a Blues team that is low-key deep in scoring, Tarasenko delivered a career-high 82 points. With a sixth career 30+ goal season, Tarasenko proved that his shoulder is now just fine. Not only that, but Tarasenko added some more playmaking to his weaponry with a career-high 48 assists. Tarasenko being paired with Robert Thomas also seemed to help both, as Thomas emerged with a point-per-game breakout season of his own. Tarasenko averaged about half a shot less than he did during his five consecutive 30+ goal seasons, but the added assist total seemed to offset that to some degree. 

The moral of the story? Don’t bail on a player just because of an injury. Obviously this won’t be the case for every player, but sports science has come a long way in the past few decades. What seemed like a diminishing asset during the offseason now appears revitalized. (may15)

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Reminder : On May 15 each year (last weekend), those with annual subscriptions – either Silver, Gold or Platinum – had their payments processed. I hope this didn’t startle too many of you. I gave the heads up here last week and there was also an email sent out a few days prior. The items for 2022-23 are now in the shop available for pre-sale. The first item that will be released is the Fantasy Prospects Report, which will come out the afternoon of June 14. – Dobber

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!
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