Ramblings: St. Louis’s Depth; Andre Burakovsky; Cale Makar & More
Alexander MacLean
2022-06-01
My playoff picks took a big hit in the last round, going 0-4, which lumps me in with the Florida Panthers' playoff power play, and the Leafs in closing games of a playoff series. Good thing for me, is there is a quicker path to redemption here as I get another shot with the third round starting last night. Our group put out our third-round picks here, and they don't really need much explaining. They were in line with the nearly unanimous picks from the rest of our writers, and they have been the two best teams thus far. Their opponents may have the MVP candidates needed to pull out a couple of games, but the depth is going to win out here just like it did in the last few rounds.
I also wanted to go through why I thought the St. Louis Blues could keep up with the Avalanche last round, because I was one of the few people that gave them the time of day before that series began. I saw their forward group as an even deeper group than the Avalanche. They don't have the 100-point threats like Colorado, but they have more 70-80 point players, and their third line is better than most second lines of other playoff teams. It's for that reason that even a defensively responsible team like Minnesota had trouble with them in round one, though Colorado's speed on the back end really seemed to be the difference there that I wasn't anticipating.
It looks like their forward depth is going to be very similar to last season, as David Perron is their only notable free agent up front, and looking to return. Perron has only ever signed contracts with STL, despite playing for five different NHL teams, so there's no reason to think that would change now.
Here are the line combinations that the Blues ran with most this season. Keeping David Perron on an excellent two-way line that saw the toughest competition and the most defensive minutes on the team, while still keeping a positive Corsi rating, will be huge for the continued production of lines two and three.
Num | Time | % | Players | GF | GA | +/- | SF | SA | SF% | CF | CA | CF% |
1 | 431:34 | 10.2 | DAVID PERRON – RYAN O’REILLY – BRANDON SAAD | 17 | 10 | 7 | 196 | 185 | 51.4 | 366 | 353 | 50.9 |
2 | 371:52 | 8.8 | VLADIMIR TARASENKO – PAVEL BUCHNEVICH – ROBERT THOMAS | 35 | 19 | 16 | 206 | 181 | 53.2 | 354 | 316 | 52.8 |
3 | 174:40 | 4.1 | BRAYDEN SCHENN – IVAN BARBASHEV – JORDAN KYROU | 11 | 8 | 3 | 77 | 100 | 43.5 | 135 | 180 | 42.9 |
4 | 154:54 | 3.7 | VLADIMIR TARASENKO – JORDAN KYROU – ROBERT THOMAS | 11 | 9 | 2 | 77 | 90 | 46.1 | 134 | 161 | 45.4 |
5 | 146:15 | 3.5 | VLADIMIR TARASENKO – IVAN BARBASHEV – ROBERT THOMAS | 6 | 12 | -6 | 76 | 110 | 40.9 | 127 | 179 | 41.5 |
6 | 93:38 | 2.2 | VLADIMIR TARASENKO – IVAN BARBASHEV – PAVEL BUCHNEVICH | 6 | 3 | 3 | 44 | 55 | 44.4 | 77 | 99 | 43.8 |
7 | 67:43 | 1.6 | BRAYDEN SCHENN – JORDAN KYROU – PAVEL BUCHNEVICH | 5 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 47 | 46.0 | 69 | 69 | 50.0 |
8 | 64:11 | 1.5 | BRANDON SAAD – OSKAR SUNDQVIST – IVAN BARBASHEV | 4 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 38 | 38.7 | 45 | 70 | 39.1 |
9 | 63:32 | 1.5 | NATHAN WALKER – LOGAN BROWN – ALEXEI TOROPCHENKO | 0 | 3 | -3 | 33 | 34 | 49.3 | 52 | 58 | 47.3 |
10 | 60:33 | 1.4 | RYAN O’REILLY – BRAYDEN SCHENN – JORDAN KYROU | 4 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 27 | 54.2 | 56 | 53 | 51.4 |
The second line with Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, and Vladimir Tarasenko was given the best offensive deployment on the team, and though I said above that the Blues don't have a 100-point scorer, they may have a 90-point guy or two. Robert Thomas just passed his breakout threshold earlier in the year, and he put up 46 points in the 41 games since that point, an easy 92-point pace.
Tarasenko also paced for 90 points on the season, but that was a career high for him, and his underlying numbers were a little elevated across the board this year. He's shown in past that he is more of a 75- to 80-point player. Meanwhile on the other wing, with a suspension along with some minor ailments to start the year, Pavel Buchnevich took a while to get acclimatized to the St. Louis system. Once he did though, he was hugely reliable, and he put up 28 points in his last 20 games. All of his numbers look a little more reasonable than Tarasenko's though the name value isn't quite there meaning he should be cheaper to acquire in the offseason or at the draft table.
On the back end, with Nick Leddy likely not returning, the Blues have seven defencemen that they can run out regularly. If Scott Perunovich is in the lineup, he will be manning the lethal top power play unit, while being sheltered at even strength, but when he is out of the lineup (and it's tough to project how often that could be at this point in time) then the top unit will be Torey Krug's and the second unit will see some time with Justin Faulk and Colton Parayko. All of the incumbent defencemen do look like they will be taking a bit of a step back offensively next year though with the full-time arrival of a healthy Perunovich. Something to keep in mind.
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Overall, the Avalanche ended up outplaying the Oilers in a back-and-forth match, taking a 1-0 lead in the series. Andre Burakovsky was in the lineup again, which sounds like a stupid thing to have to outline, but the Avs are so deep that he was a healthy scratch for two games in the series with the Blues. The 27-year-old soon-to-be free agent picked up an assist on the first Avs goal of the game. His streaky play in the post-season will likely cost him a few dollars this summer, but that will only make him more valuable in cap leagues, and show him as a player with reduced value in general.
However, getting out from behind the shadow of the big guns in Colorado may be the best thing for him, as his numbers dipped a little this season despite seeing more ice time. As a free agent, the team signing him will likely have a spot on the top line for him, and with some further increased ice time on top of a rebound of his underlying numbers, Burakovsky could be primed for a career year.
How long until Cale Makar notches 100 points in a season? It's a matter of when, not if, now. Roman Josi gave 100 points a run this year, and he did so playing a higher percentage of time on the penalty kill. Makar is also playing on a higher-powered offence, and though he didn't factor into as much of his team's offence this year as Josi did, he has the talent to. When that inevitably takes a jump, Makar is going to be cruising past 100 points by game 75.
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It certainly sounds like it's possible that Carey Price doesn't play in the NHL again, and ideally for Montreal, they would like to know whether to expect him on the ice at all next season or not. Jake Allen's value will be greatly affected, though regardless of Price's status, the Habs need to bring in a better third goalie than the carousel of options they ran through last season. Having a full season of Martin St. Louis at the helm of the ship should help too though.
With the poor showing last season, the possible large volume, and the improved team in front of him, Allen actually may make out as one of the better bargain goalies at the draft table in the fall.
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Find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.