Ramblings: Francouz Shuts Out Oilers, What to Do with Marchand and Wilson (June 3)

Ian Gooding

2022-06-03

If there were any doubts about Darcy Kuemper not being available for Game 2, Pavel Francouz erased them with a 24-save shutout to give the Avalanche a 2-0 series lead. Francouz was playing in his fourth game of the playoffs but making just his second start. He probably didn't face the Oilers at their best, as the Avalanche were too much for the Oilers to handle. Still, Francouz did all that he needed to.

Kuemper is a UFA this offseason, and it remains to be seen whether the Avalanche can afford him. Next season, Colorado's goaltending could easily be Francouz with a $2 million cap hit and another small-to-medium-ticket option. Assuming Kuemper is out longer, Francouz could leverage a strong playoff run into a bigger workload than he had this season (21 GP total). The Avalanche are the kind of team that carries play enough that they simply need a dependable goalie – not a superhuman that has to steal games.

After a Game 1 that averaged nearly five goals per period, the two teams actually went scoreless in the first period. Then in the second period, the Avalanche erupted for three goals in just over two minutes. Nazem Kadri recorded assists on all three of those goals, originally being credited for the first goal. Kadri on a $4 million cap hit is one reason that the Avalanche are playing games this late in the season.  

Mikko Rantanen scored just one goal over the first two rounds, and it was an empty-netter. Now he has goals in back-to-back games. He has also recorded multiple points in back-to-back games. Better late than never in the goal-scoring department if he's in your playoff pool, although he has 12 assists in 12 games.

Nathan MacKinnon scored a power-play goal in the third period to pad the Avalanche lead to 4-0. His 11 shots in Game 2 is the second-highest single-game total of the playoffs. Only teammate Cale Makar recorded a higher single-game total with 12 shots in Game 2 of the Nashville series.

With a goal and an assist in Game 2, Artturi Lehkonen has six points (3 G, 3 A) in his last six games. He's also been used on a scoring line for much of the playoffs, so he's a solid cheap daily fantasy option if you're looking to fill out your roster.

Andre Burakovsky missed Game 2 after blocking a shot in Game 1. Nicolas Aube-Kubel entered the lineup and gave the Avs a physical presence with five hits.

We never really know which Mike Smith will appear in any given game. As it turned out, Smith was okay in stopping 36 of 40 shots he faced. He has allowed at least four goals in each of his past three games. Improving on that against this Colorado team won't be easy, although the Oilers at least play the next two at home.

Because the Oilers were shut out, both Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid had streaks snapped. Draisaitl had a nine-game assist streak snapped, a run where he piled up 20 assists! McDavid's nine-game point streak of 23 points also came to an end. To put that in perspective, Brad Marchand and Ryan O'Reilly led the entire 2019 playoffs with 23 points each. O'Reilly played 26 games; Marchand, 24.  

Kailer Yamamoto left this game with an upper-body injury. He was on the receiving end of a Gabriel Landeskog hit in the first period, but he did not leave the game right away.

Darryl Sutter is your 2021-22 Jack Adams Award as the NHL's top coach. I'm not going to quibble on this one, as Sutter took a team that missed the playoffs last season to a division championship. Sutter's press conferences make me giggle too.

Winning the Jack Adams was once considered (but maybe still is) the kiss of death in terms of job security. So far, all of the last three winners (Sutter, Rod Brind'Amour, Bruce Cassidy) are still employed by their teams. It would have been four if Barry Trotz wasn't let go earlier this offseason. I wonder if that's the longest streak ever.

In case you'd completely forgotten about Jake Gardiner, he has been fully cleared to return following surgery on his back and hips. This is an interesting one because Gardiner was a 52-point defenseman a few seasons ago with the Leafs. His production has been declined in two seasons with the Hurricanes, but maybe that's related to these significant injuries. Gardiner has one more season left at just over $4 million.

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The Hurricanes have Jaccob Slavin, Brady Skjei, and Brett Pesce under contract but appear to be a blank slate on defense after that. Anthony DeAngelo and Ethan Bear are both arbitration-eligible RFAs. My guess is that DeAngelo receives another low-risk one-year contract, but it also wouldn't be a huge surprise if the Canes decide to move on from him. That could clear up power-play opportunity for Gardiner if the Canes don't make any other significant moves on defense.

Brad Marchand has undergone surgery on both hips, which is expected to sideline him for the first month or two of the regular season. That surgery could put his season debut anywhere between early to late November, meaning that he will miss approximately 15 games. That works out to 67 games that he will be available, which doesn't include any further injuries or suspensions. Keep in mind that he missed nine games due to suspensions last season, which is just a part of being Brad Marchand.  

Marchand's production dipped from 1.30 PTS/GP in 2020-21 to 1.14 PTS/GP in 2021-22. Let's say he maintains a 1.1 PTS/GP pace, even at age 34. Over 67 games, that works out to around 73 points. That's certainly rosterable in just about any league, but it's far from the elite-level 100+ point pace that he's produced at over his previous four seasons. That's also assuming regular center Patrice Bergeron returns. If Bergeron retires, Marchand could be in for a further dip in production.

Obviously, you don't have to make your keeper decision on Marchand today, but circumstances aren't shaping up well for Marchand. That being said, it doesn't mean you should sell all your Marchand shares for pennies on the dollar. His scoring hasn't fallen off a cliff, and he will return at some point during the season. Also keep in mind that Marchand has three seasons left on a contract with a cap hit of just over $6 million (still ideal for cap leagues), so he still has significant remaining value.

Tom Wilson is expected to need 6-8 months to recover from a surgery for a torn ACL. As Dobber said in a recent Ramblings, that puts Wilson's availability at around Christmas. Wilson would miss approximately 30 games, which would cut significantly into his season production. Wilson scored a career-high 24 goals and 52 points in 2021-22, so his total production should be scaled back to about 35 points next season.

After racking up over 100 penalty minutes over his first six seasons, Wilson has ranged between 90 to 100 penalty minutes in each of his previous three seasons. He has also been credited with 200+ hits in seven of his last eight seasons. Although his hit and penalty minute totals have declined somewhat in recent seasons as the scoring has increased, Wilson has incredible value in bangers leagues.

In single-season leagues, Wilson is worth a late-round pick and IR stash, as he could turn into a second-half difference maker. The most ideal point to pick Wilson in fantasy draft would be when replacement-level players are being chosen. In other words, you'll also have an easy opportunity to add a hot waiver-wire commodity once Wilson moves to IR.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

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