Eastern Edge: First Seasons In New Locales, Including Rakell And Mrazek

Brennan Des

2022-06-28

This week's Eastern Edge is the sixth and final part of a series looking at how players performed in new surroundings this season. We'll discuss players that joined new teams ahead of the 2021-2022 regular season, as well as those that were traded during the campaign. The prior editions of this series can be viewed here.

Rickard Rakell

Rakell started the season in Anaheim and posted 28 points in 51 appearances (0.55 points per game), skating over 18 minutes a night and seeing 56% of the team's total power-play time. At the trade deadline, he was sent to Pittsburgh, where he tallied 13 points in 19 games with the Penguins (0.68 points per game). He skated 17 minutes a night and saw 34% of Pittsburgh's total power-play time. Although his role decreased in quantity, it increased in quality as he got to share the ice with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel in Pittsburgh. Rakell mostly played with Sonny Milano and Trevor Zegras in Anaheim, who are good players in their own right, but I don't think it's controversial to say that Crosby and Guentzel are a significantly better duo. Rakell complemented Crosby and Guentzel nicely as the trio dominated the opposition in scoring chances and outscored their opponents 9 to 1 (via NaturalStatTrick).

Currently an unrestricted free agent, it's hard to project Rakell's fantasy value for next year because we don't know what team he'll be playing for. I imagine the Penguins will at least try to re-sign him, but there are more pressing items on the to-do list as Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang also need new contracts. If Rakell stays in Pittsburgh, I could see him breaking the 60-point barrier as part of the team's star-studded top-six.

Brandon Hagel

The young forward got off to a fantastic start with Chicago this year, tallying 21 goals and 16 assists through 55 appearances with the Blackhawks (0.67 points per game). He skated over 17 minutes per game and saw 40% of the team's total power-play time. At the trade deadline, Hagel was sent over to Tampa Bay in exchange for a huge haul (Boris Katchouk, Taylor Raddysh, and two top-10 protected first round picks). Hagel's deployment changed dramatically in Tampa Bay and his production suffered as a result. He averaged 13 and a half minutes per game through 22 regular season appearances with the Lightning, tallying just seven points in the process (0.32 points per game). He went from a secondary power-play role in Chicago to no power-play role at all in Tampa. His scoring-focused role in Chicago – where he started 64% of his shifts in the offensive zone (via NaturalStatTrick) – turned into more of a checking role in Tampa Bay, where he started just 48% of his shifts in the offensive zone (via NaturalStatTrick). He saw lots of time beside superstar Patrick Kane in Chicago but didn't get much of a chance to play with Tampa's stars (Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov) during the regular season. There's potential for that to change next year as Ondrej Palat is currently an unrestricted free agent and the Lightning don't really have the cap space to re-sign him. Palat's departure could give Hagel more opportunity beside some combination of Stamkos, Point and Kucherov next year. Alternatively, Hagel could maintain a similar role to the one he played this year. If that ends up being the case, I wouldn't be very optimistic about his fantasy outlook for next season.

Petr Mrazek

Despite posting a winning record (12-6-0), Mrazek's first year with the Leafs will go down as a disappointing one because of his career-worst individual stats – namely a 3.34 GAA and .888 save percentage. He was thoroughly outperformed by Jack Campbell, who posted a 2.64 GAA and .914 save percentage, alongside a 31-9-6 record.

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In my opinion, much of Mrazek's poor performance this year can be attributed to injuries. He suffered a groin injury in his season debut and reaggravated that injury during his second start, two weeks later. He stayed sidelined for four weeks and had trouble getting into a rhythm when he returned, seeing sporadic action behind starter Jack Campbell. That lasted a few months until Mrazek hurt his groin again and missed the end of the regular season. Given the fact that he injured his groin early on, and aggravated it multiple times during the campaign, I think it's fair to say that the injury may have hindered him all year. His positioning didn't look great this season, but in hindsight, it makes sense that his movement was thrown off because his groin wasn't at 100%.

Looking ahead to next season, I think Mrazek's fantasy value will depend on his health. He could be a good sleeper pick if he can recover from his groin issues during the offseason, but that's obviously a big if. His value took a huge hit because of this year's struggles, and I expect he'll fall in next year's fantasy drafts. As it stands, he should benefit from playing behind one of the league's strongest rosters, but it's important to keep in mind that his future in Toronto is not set in stone. He's signed for two more years, but his $3.8 million cap hit may be burdensome for a cash-strapped Leafs team, especially with Mrazek underperforming this year. With Jack Campbell in need of a new contract, it'll be interesting to see how Toronto navigates the offseason. Do they use most of their ~ $6.5 million in cap space to re-sign Campbell? Do they test the market for another goaltender to replace Campbell and share the net with Mrazek? Or do they trade away Mrazek for pennies on the dollar, freeing up cap space so that they can re-sign free agents and have more breathing room during the season?

Based on the belief that last year's struggles were due to injury, I personally think it makes more sense to start the season with Mrazek. His numbers were so poor last year, it almost seems like there's nowhere to go but up. If he's able to rebound, the Leafs either have a serviceable netminder that they can keep, or a trade chip with increased value. There are a lot of moving parts right now and it's still too early to gauge Mrazek's fantasy value with so many important factors up in the air. I'd keep him in mind as a potential sleeper pick for now, but that potential may increase or decrease depending on how Toronto approaches this offseason. 

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