Frozen Tool Forensics: The Final Four

Chris Kane

2022-07-01

Welcome to our final playoff deployment review. We are wrapping up with the final four teams for the 2021-22 playoff season: Colorado, Edmonton, Tampa Bay, and New York (Rangers).

Given that these are the final four, they have the biggest sample sizes. In most cases we are looking at between 16-23 games depending on the team in question. Tampa players tend to have the most games played (the most rounds, plus no sweeps), where Edmonton has the fewest. These numbers obviously fluctuate a bit for specific players if they were benched or injured.

So far we have been working under the caveat that these trends should be taken with a grain of salt because they are small sample sizes, and at the end of the day these teams lost. At this point though we are dealing with a lot of teams that had quite a bit of success in the playoffs. Making the conference final is a pretty clear measuring stick that something worked. The caveats here are just that this was playoff hockey so might be a slightly different style of game than the regular season and that some of these teams will have some big off-season decisions to make, but let's dig into what the data can tell us.

Additional notes from last week's article.

And now on to the process. We will be looking at deployment and specifically percent of time on the power-play, at even strength, and total time on ice. We will be using percent as overtime games can add significant time to a player's overall count without changing that player's real deployment opportunity. In order to get this data we will be running a custom Time on Ice report for the playoffs and comparing that to a second custom Time on Ice report for the last two months of the regular season. That comparison will tell us which players have gained or lost time between these two samples.

 So now on to the data. First up: Total Time on Ice

NamePosAgeTeamGP%PP Playoff%EV Playoff%TOI Playoff%PP Season%EV Season%TOI Season%PP Change%EV Change%TOI Change
NICHOLAS PAULC27T.B2321.62829.82.925.524.718.702.505.10
ADAM FOXD24NYR2073.339.842.472.435380.904.804.40
K’ANDRE MILLERD22NYR206.641.639.610.936.535.4-4.305.104.20
ANTHONY CIRELLIC24T.B2315.53131.412.627.227.22.903.804.20
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINSR29EDM1674.328.933.778.324.829.6-4.004.104.10

If we read left to right we have some basic info about the player in question, then we have their playoff performance using the percent of the total team time that they were on the ice (on the power-play, at even strength, and in total). In gray we have the same categories, but for the last two months of the regular season. The far-left white columns are again the same time on ice categories, but showing the change from regular season to the playoffs.

Nick Paul saw a big jump in minutes through the course of the playoffs. In the final against Colorado, he saw more than 18 minutes in four of the six games, and over 20 minutes twice. He mostly saw time on Tampa's new deadline deal third line, but was getting mixed in with Alex Killorn and Anthony Cirelli as well. The good news is he seemed to be a valuable piece in Tampa's eyes. The bad news is he didn't put up much on the score sheet with only nine points (in 23 games) and less than two shots per game, his big increase in power-play deployment still netted him less than 20 percent on average, and he is a rental without a contract yet. There are some good indications here, but there is just too much up in the air to be able to get a good read on what Paul will be able to do next.

I am going to put Anthony Cirelli and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in kind of the same boat here as these are the kinds of players that we might expect to see more of in the playoffs specifically. They can produce when asked, but can also match up well against other teams. They are versatile and I see their changes in deployment more associated with that than with a real change in how their teams see them.

Next, a quick look at players who saw less time.

NamePosAgeTeamGP%PP Playoff%EV Playoff%TOI Playoff%PP Season%EV Season%TOI Season%PP Change%EV Change%TOI Change
JACK JOHNSOND35COL130.720.218.11.130.829.1-0.40-10.60-11.00
JUSTIN BRAUND35NYR19123.3211.93129.3-0.90-7.70-8.30
JESSE PULJUJARVIR24EDM166.419.816.712.328.124.9-5.90-8.30-8.20
BRADEN SCHNEIDERD20NYR202.120.317.82.528.425.2-0.40-8.10-7.40
ANDRE BURAKOVSKYL27COL1221.221.920.130.72927-9.50-7.10-6.90

Jack Johnson leading this list? Not that much of a surprise. He hasn't exactly been the toast of the NHL community for a long time. The more interesting names here are Jesse Puljujarvi and Andre Burakovsky.

Puljujarvi has had a fairy turbulent career and this year was no exception. In the playoffs he bounced around a bit, but did see time at even strength with Connor McDavid and on the second power-play. Bringing in guys like Zach Hyman and Evander Kane certainly didn't do much for his stock over the season, but the playoffs were significantly worse. He saw an average of about 10 minutes a night throughout the playoffs with a low of five and a half. With only three points and less than a shot and a half a night, there really isn't much to like.

Andre Burakovsky had a hand injury that kept him out of Colorado's final four games, but had put up five points over the course of the four games he played prior to that (he also had a few other games with a lower body injury in there). Add that to his third consecutive season of a 65ish point pace, so suffice it to say that the news is not all bad here. Burakovsky's bread and butter has been as a third wheel, or fill-in player on the top line (or top six) and on the power-play. Valeri Nichushkin's emergence and the addition of Artturi Lehkonen pushed Burakovsky down to the third line with J.T. Compher. Not great. Obviously Colorado has some contract situations to work out, so watch for those, but this isn't a great sign for Burakovsky.

And now on to power-play deployment.

NamePosAgeTeamGP%PP Playoff%EV Playoff%TOI Playoff%PP Season%EV Season%TOI Season%PP Change%EV Change%TOI Change
COREY PERRYR37T.B2358.518.520.73122.220.927.50-3.70-0.20
ONDREJ PALATL31T.B2343.728.127.726.926.22516.801.902.70
ZACH HYMANL30EDM1664.330.733.85330.732.311.300.001.50
EVAN BOUCHARDD22EDM1635.331.93029.23230.36.10-0.10-0.30
STEVEN STAMKOSL32T.B2375.928.730.870.228.529.95.700.200.90

There is also an added filter here on play off power-play percentage. I am not including anyone who increased their power-play time but still accounted for less than 30 percent of their team's time.

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Corey Perry saw a huge increase, which is a little bit intriguing given he is signed through 2022-23, but I am not really holding my breath he keeps this deployment.

Ondrej Palat is certainly interesting. Alex Killorn was out on the top power-play and Palat and Perry kept that role. Palat didn't have the strongest regular season but did put up 21 points in 23 playoff games. He has a contract to figure out, but certainly provided for Tampa when they needed it most.

Evan Bouchard is another interesting name here. Tyson Barrie is clearly on the outs in Edmonton. His time is all over the place, and even when he gets it, he doesn't produce. Bouchard still didn't see a ton of time overall, but he has been given opportunity when Barrie is out, or indeed in lieu of Barrie on some occasions (like their final playoff game where he was on the top unit). This is just one more example. It just means that Bouchard is definitely worth keeping an eye on over the off season.

So who lost the most time?

NamePosAgeTeamGP%PP Playoff%EV Playoff%TOI Playoff%PP Season%EV Season%TOI Season%PP Change%EV Change%TOI Change
ALEX KILLORNR32T.B2337.530.431.460.426.129.7-22.904.301.70
NAZEM KADRIC31COL1658.327.42875.630.232-17.30-2.80-4.00
TYSON BARRIED30EDM1657.930.430.365.328.230-7.402.200.30
BRAYDEN POINTC26T.B964.829.230.270.930.831.3-6.10-1.60-1.10
RYAN STROMEC28NYR1962.52829.167.82930.2-5.30-1.00-1.10

We have already touched on Killorn and Barrie already. This is not good news for them. Nazem Kadri on the second unit isn't great either, but his contract situation is a much bigger question mark at the moment. So let's see what happens there (and with Colorado in general) before reading too much into this.

Ryan Strome is an interesting one though. He generally still saw time with Artemi Panarin which is a good place to be, but saw about 50 percent or less of his team's power-play time over their last three games. He was off the power-play completely in the final game even though there was plenty of time to go around. He only ended up with nine points in his 19 games and lost time (by percent) across the board. On top of that he had a fine, if uninspiring regular season as well. With Andrew Copp, Frank Vatrano, and Ryan Strome all free agents this summer it will be interesting to see who comes back, but this is an indication that Strome's position isn't all that secure.

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