Fantasy Take: Kunin Moved To The San Jose Sharks
Michael Clifford
2022-07-08
The Nashville Predators sure are doing things lately, and the latest was to send Luke Kunin to the San Jose Sharks and a third-round pick. Kunin, going into his age-25 season, was a 15th overall pick in 2016 by Minnesota, and managed 41 points in 120 games with Nashville. The official announcement:
There is a lot he does in the fantasy game so let's break this down.
What San Jose gets
My main focus during the NHL season is on daily fantasy, not season-long. As a guy that plays a lot of DFS, I can say with some confidence that the reason we would use Kunin in contests is because he shoots. His 7.6 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 ranks somewhere near the top-third of the league, in the range of other middle-6 wingers like Nino Niederreiter and Jakob Silfverberg. That he typically doesn't play much – not a season with at least 16 minutes a game – is why his shot rates are generally under two shots per game. He is going to a San Jose team that is utterly bereft of talent all over the place, and wing stands out especially. After Timo Meier, we're looking at Alexander Barabanov, Rudolfs Balcers, Matt Nieto and, well, you get the idea. It really isn't out of the realm of possibility that Kunin goes to the top line at some point in 2022-23, if only because the Sharks have three good forwards. William Eklund could certainly make the roster, but that still leaves lots of room on the right side. He was eighth in TOI per game at 5-on-5 in Nashville. He could be fourth or fifth in San Jose.
He is unlikely to earn a PP role, though. They do have those three forwards, Ekblund might be ready, and Meier and Tomas Hertl are good shooters already. They don't need another shooter on that top PP unit. He may get time in some games, but I very much doubt it's an extended look for most of the season.
Where the issues come up for Kunin is that he doesn't do anything but shoot and stand in front of the net. This isn't conjecture: here are his tracking stats from 2021-22, according to Corey Sznajder's tracking data:
The data looks virtually the same from the COVID 2021 season, with his passing zone entries showing much better. That's it. When it comes to offence, he's very limited in what he can do. As a net-front presence, he can create problems for opposing goalies, and pick up his points that way. When it comes to creating chances for his teammates, or supporting them in transition, he's a black hole.
Of course, in the fantasy game, it's not necessarily points that we want from him. In his two seasons with Nashville, Kunin had 112 PIMs and 307 hits in 120 games. This is a guy who could realistically score a dozen goals, put up 30 points, and give 200 hits + 100 PIMs. That is very valuable in multi-cat leagues, but not in points-only formats.
Additional ice time is what we're looking for from him. If he can get to the 16-minute range, we could be looking at a peripherals monster, and that's what fantasy owners should hope for. I'm pessimistic that he'll be much of an offensive contributor, but he doesn't need a lot to be very valuable in multi-cat formats.
What Nashville gets
I will defer to our Dobber Prospects team on what John Leonard could bring for the Predators. He'll be in tough for a roster spot, at the least, seeing as he couldn't even crack a pretty bad San Jose team regularly.
Who this helps:
Luke Evangelista
Who this hurts: