Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. There were lots of signings with significant fantasy impact to discuss this past week, as Free Agent Frenzy went full throttle. For anyone that missed the coverage, the entire DobberHockey editing group pitched in to cover all the big names and those articles can be found here. This is always one of the busiest days of the season for our group, so a shout out to Dobber, Ian, Mike and Alex for their great work.

2. The Ottawa Senators might be having the best offseason of any team, and it keeps getting better. Following their recent acquisitions of Alex DeBrincat, Cam Talbot, and Claude Giroux, the Sens and Josh Norris have agreed to an eight-year, $63.6 million contract extension, which works out to a $7.95 million cap hit. That might seem expensive for Norris, but at least they don’t have to worry about an unsigned RFA entering training camp like they did with Brady Tkachuk last season. In addition, you might not have noticed the kind of season that Norris had.

Norris finished the season with 35 goals, which might not stand out on its own. However, he scored those goals in just 66 games. That was a similar pace to the likes of Jack Hughes, Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, Evgeni Malkin, and Evander Kane. As well, he was on pace for 68 points over a full 82-game season. Norris was especially lethal on the power play, where he finished tied for third in the league with 16 power-play goals. Only Chris Kreider and Leon Draisaitl scored more power-play goals than Norris.

Need another reason to like Norris? Check out the new and improved Senators top 6. Norris played most of his even-strength minutes with Tkachuk last season, but he will have a variety of options at his disposal this coming season.

Brady Tkachuk – Josh Norris – Drake Batherson
Alex DeBrincat – Tim Stutzle – Claude Giroux

Could the Senators add John Klingberg to their team as well? We’ll have to wait to find out. (july15)

3. Johnny Gaudreau: It makes no damn sense, but it compels me.

Really, though. I was laughing earlier in the day when they signed Erik Gudbranson considering the amount of defensive depth they have. This is a different beast, though, as Gaudreau steps onto the team and becomes the best forward they’ve had since Rick Nash.

It’ll be curious to see how everything lines up. Beyond just Patrik Laine, they still have Jakub Voracek and Oliver Bjorkstrand around. That seems to lock up their top-6 wing slots, leaving the likes of Gustav Nyquist and Yegor Chinakhov in the bottom-6. But even with Kent Johnson on the way, does anyone think this team was one (1) Jonathan Hockey away from being a Cup contender? They need Johnson and Cole Sillinger to be major impact players, and sooner rather than later.

Fantasy-wise, this is a big downgrade for Gaudreau. He should still be great offensively, but there’s a large difference between being a 115-point guy and a 95-point guy when you don’t hit or rack up PIM. Regardless of how this works out, with the young kids coming and now the skilled, veteran wingers, Columbus is going to be as much fun to watch as this franchise has ever been. (july14)

4. The Gaudreau – Matthew Tkachuk – Elias Lindholm line was the top even-strength line in the league last season according to Frozen Tools, and it wasn’t even close. This signing will hurt the scoring totals for both Tkachuk and Lindholm.

As I mentioned in the Fantasy Take, Andrew Mangiapane seems like a likely replacement for Gaudreau on that top line. Mangiapane is more of a goal scorer than the play driver that Gaudreau was, which means goal opportunities for both Tkachuk and Lindholm won’t be as frequent. I’d bet the under on the latter two both reaching 40 goals again. Downgrade both at least a little bit in your 2022-23 pre-draft rankings, as I will be in the Roto Rankings. (july15)

One thing I didn’t mention in the Fantasy Take is that Jakob Pelletier‘s chances of playing in the NHL next season have increased. Pelletier, a late first-round pick in 2019, happens to be a left winger. In his first AHL season, Pelletier scored 62 points (including 27 goals) in 66 games. And who knows, maybe Pelletier even receives a look on the top line as well. For more, see Pelletier’s Dobber Prospects profile. Or grab a copy of the Prospects Guide. (july15)

Another point I didn’t mention (all of my thoughts don’t happen at once, you know): The Blue Jackets still need cap space to sign RFA Laine. Gustav Nyquist (one more year at $5.5 million) is one player being discussed as trade bait. That’s fine, as he’s one player who could be moved down the lineup should he stay. I realize the Erik Gudbranson signing (four years at $4 million) happened before the possibility of Gaudreau might have gained traction, but I wonder if the Blue Jackets would like to take that one back. Gudbranson had a solid season in Calgary as a third-pairing defenseman, but he’s not a player I would want to commit four years to, let alone $4 million per. Just my opinion. (july15)

5. The biggest mover during Day 1 of Free Agent Frenzy had to be the Detroit Red Wings. They had over $30M in cap space entering the day and have a pretty clean cap sheet moving forward. It didn’t take them long to get busy as Andrew Copp‘s signing was announced almost immediately at 12:00 ET. Throughout the day, they added David Perron, Dominik Kubalik, Ben Chiarot, and Olli Mattta. In one day, GM Steve Yzerman quite literally added an entire forward line and a defense pair. I would quibble with some of the values – I do not think Chiarot is worth $4.75M for four years – but this was a team desperate for depth and added a lot of quality.

Adding Copp as the second-line center is the biggest note here. Since the retirement of Henrik Zetterberg, this team has not had a competent center to play behind Dylan Larkin; certainly not one that can play 18-19 minutes a night with good offensive contributions and penalty killing ability. With Perron added and the skill that already exists, Copp’s raw points upside is capped because of lack of power-play exposure. All the same, this was a big need for them and Copp should fare well there.

The additional scoring is important for them, but who does it help in fantasy? Well, the goalies, for starters (zing!). Whether the team improved defensively, well, we’ll get to that in a second. But the ability to score more goals throughout the lineup will only help the goalies rack up wins. If Larkin/Bertuzzi had an off-night, and the goalies weren’t stellar, they weren’t winning games. Having secondary scoring to pick up the top guns will help the goalies in that vital Win column. (This isn’t an exaggeration, either – Alex Nedeljkovic had 18 games where he allowed at least four goals and lost all of them. Jack Campbell won over 20% of his games where he allowed at least four. A team being able to score helps the goalie’s wins stats.)

More than that, it’s improvements to the power play that should help the skaters, fantasy-wise. Larkin had just 13 PPPs (!) in 71 games despite being featured on the top unit all season. Detroit had one of the worst power plays in the league, and as I mentioned in my write-up on Perron, they added one of the top wingers in hockey when it comes to goal-driving with the man advantage. Larkin was just a couple points shy of being a point-per-game player in 2021-22. Any bets he can be a point-per-game guy if that top PP unit improves to even just league average? (july14)

6. Ilya Mikheyev was another intriguing signing for me on Day 1. There is a contingent that believes Mikheyev was under-utilized on a Leafs team that was loaded with offensive talent, and there’s a contingent that believes this is an overpay. It really is tough what to make of a guy with fewer than two full seasons of NHL games that turns 28 in October.

We can’t talk about the Russian winger without talking about that gnarly wrist injury. He incurred a sliced wrist in December of 2019 and that ended his season. He was having a good rookie year to that point with eight goals and 23 points in 39 games. Pacing for over 15 goals and nearly 50 points as a rookie is a good year, especially with a zero in the power-play point column.

It’s a question of how healthy that wrist was in the shortened 2021 COVID season. He shot a poor 6.5% and had just 17 points in 54 games. The team shot just 6.7% with Mikheyev on the ice at 5-on-5 as he largely played in the bottom-6 with the likes of Pierre Engvall and Alex Kerfoot. That doesn’t seem like a spot conducive to offense, and I will note that Engvall’s on-ice team goal rate was 2.2 this past season, so maybe it was a line mate problem.

That is what makes the move to Vancouver so interesting. Ostensibly, he could go play with the likes of Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Brock Boeser. He should get consistent top-6 minutes and he potted 21 goals in just 53 games last year in that role. He isn’t a great playmaker, but he can get the team into the zone and is good at getting his shot away. That is very valuable in its own, and that doesn’t even get into his superlative defense.

Mikheyev’s fantasy problem persists, though: power play time. He got little time with the Leafs and considering names like Horvat, Miller, Pettersson and Boeser, it doesn’t appear much will change with the Canucks. PPTOI is always a key to unlocking the next level of fantasy production, and that’s what will keep Mikheyev’s ceiling capped. In the real world, this is a good signing for Vancouver. In fantasy, this seems like a fairly lateral move for the player. (july14)

7. The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for July. I made more updates this month than I did last month, mainly because of all the players impacted by the recent trades and signings. Feel free to leave feedback on the rankings, which I will take into account when compiling next month’s rankings.

I’ve also updated the rankings to show Cale Makar as the top-ranked defenseman, and it’s a change I probably should have made sooner. We saw what Makar is capable of during the playoffs as a point-per-game-plus scorer. And guess what? He’s entering his fourth season. I previously had Roman Josi in that top spot because of his run at 100 points, but I think Makar will be the defenseman to watch when it comes to pursuing 100 points. Injuries were an issue with Makar during his first two seasons, but he missed only five games in 2021-22. As long as Makar stays healthy, the sky’s the limit. [Compare Players – Josi/Makar]

As for Josi, I have him re-ranked in a second mini-tier of d-men with Victor Hedman and Adam Fox. Josi, Makar, Hedman, and Fox were the top four scoring defensemen last season. All appear to be safe default Norris Trophy candidates as well. (july16)

8. I have to be honest: I wasn’t sure that a Filip Forsberg signing was going to happen after the Predators traded for Ryan McDonagh. I saw the trade as a possible signal that Forsberg had priced himself out of the Preds’ price range and that they would focus on obtaining 1-2 lesser-priced forwards instead.

If Forsberg’s contract seems a little high based on his career production, keep in mind that he is really cashing in on his contract season. Forsberg produced career highs in both goals (42) and assists (42). In fact, Forsberg finished tied for ninth place in goals in spite of missing 13 games due to both an upper-body injury and COVID protocol.

Not surprisingly, some of Forsberg’s advanced stats lean a little higher than expected. In particular, an 18.6 SH%, 11.7 5-on-5 SH%, and 4.0 PTS/60. That and the contract year point to a possible slight regression for Forsberg in 2021-22. You could also tie those advanced stats into the sudden bounceback of Matt Duchene, which I wrote about here. As much as both Forsberg and Duchene could both be potential busts relative to their ADP next season, it’s also entirely possible that these two click so well that they are able to continue their success into next season. (july10)

9. I have a few thoughts I want to delve into regarding last week's NHL Draft. Primarily, I want to stress that this year’s crop of draftees was on the weak side. For now. Over the next season I am sure that a dozen or more of these kids will surge in fantasy value, similar to how Wyatt Johnston surged over the last year. But as things stand now, there are very few sure things in this year’s draft and of the “sure things” – the upside is limited.

As you saw a few NHL teams do in the later rounds, you should consider it too. I’m talking about moving later draft picks for picks next year. If it comes down to a decision between dropping a player you aren’t thrilled about dropping so you can use a pick, or trade the pick for the same round a year from now, take the latter. So, below are the 12 picks I like the most, strictly from a fantasy standpoint…

10. (1). Simon Nemec, NJD – A defenseman with a high offensive ceiling. Where that will end up, or how long it will take him to get there, is the million-dollar question. But after missing out on Cale Makar in my main dynasty league, I feel like I’m on a mission to find the next one. Even though I know in my heart of hearts that a Makar comes once per generation. I had my eye on taking Nemec this year, but now that New Jersey grabbed him second overall I have zero chance of getting him now. Had he slid to fifth, as he was in many mocks, then I had a shot.

11. (2) Logan Cooley, ARI – This is about as high an upside as you’ll get in this draft. I think the Coyotes got themselves another Dylan Guenther in terms of production upside, except that Cooley is a centerman. Potentially, he could develop over the next year and we talk about him in the summer of ’23 the way we talked about Trevor Zegras a year ago. In terms of pure upside, Cooley is probably your best bet alongside Slafkovsky. But unlike Slafkovsky, we’ll probably get good numbers from Cooley in three or four years (two at best) instead of five or six (four at best).

12. (3) Juraj Slafkovsky, MTL – I really like Slafkovsky’s upside, but I worry about Montreal fans coming down on him four years from now when he hasn’t done anything yet. Can they sit through six years of Kaapo Kakko or Jesse Puljujarvi? Or Quintin Byfield? Because I suspect that’s what they’re in for. Slafkovsky is a big man with upside, and these guys generally take time. A lot of fans expect every first overall pick to come in and get 65 points right off the hop. I doubt he does that. And if he gets ‘only’ 35 points, then the fans will expect 65 in Year 2. But he probably won’t do that either. And if he sees some time in the minors, or gets hit with a couple of minor injuries, managing just 30 points – then Montreal fans and media will start to get restless. What I want to see is steady growth. I’m okay with 35 points in a rookie year – just making the NHL is a huge deal. And if in the second year his numbers don’t go up, I won’t be panicking. I hope to see good numbers early, but honestly my expectation is for him to not reach 65 points until he’s 24. That’s in 2028. This is why I am happy I don’t draft early in any of my dynasties this summer. I’ll let the other owners grab Slafkovsky.

13. (4) Shane Wright, SEA – I can’t help but see Ryan Nugent-Hopkins here. RNH had 52 points as a rookie and 56 in years three and four. He didn’t get to 69 (his career high) until his eighth year. I think Wright can get there sooner, and I think he can go a few points beyond that number, too. But in general, that’s the progression I’m expecting.

14. (5) Frank Nazar, CHI – I like Nazar’s upside because our DobberProspects team really likes his upside. And our old friend, former DH and DP editor Cam Robinson loves him. Add in the fact that Chicago is having a fire sale and I like Nazar even more. Prospects have less of a wait time when they are in the system of an organization going through a rebuild. The Blackhawks are clearly going for Connor Bedard, which makes Nazar even more of an upside play.

15. (6) Matthew Savoie, BUF – Very good upside, and you probably know that I have a soft spot for the small, skilled players. I like his landing spot as well, because as I noted above – rebuilding teams have plenty of room and opportunity. That gives him a higher likelihood and a lower wait time than he would have elsewhere.

16. (7) Isaac Howard, TBL – Another player with very good upside, Howard is in a system that I believe will get the most out of him. However, with Tampa Bay he is likely looking at three seasons (two in junior, one in the AHL) before finally getting a sniff of the NHL. I give him a high NHL certainty, scoring-line upside, but a four-year wait time.

17. (8) Jagger Firkus, SEA – Firkus fell further than he should have. Our staff had him ranked high, and when I went to the CHL top prospects game I thought he was the best player there over Wright and Savoie. He was arguably the prospect we figured had risen the most over the past six months – but it turns out he didn’t rise much at all. He ended up getting taken 35^th overall. He greatest asset is between his ears, and you can’t teach that. As long as he adds bulk, gets stronger and is developed properly, I think he can be a first liner. But of everyone on this list of 12, Firkus is the biggest risk.

18. (9) Jonathan Lekkerimaki, VAN – Here is a player that both Dave Hall and I had in our Top 10 forwards for points-only leagues, we had him ranked Top 15 for the draft and he went 15^th overall to Vancouver. This is such a great fit, as the team has plenty of room for a high-upside winger in their top six for the longer term. He’s a pure goal scorer who is likely just two seasons away, and I can totally see Elias Pettersson (not the one they just drafted, the older one currently on their team) feeding Lekkerimaki pucks all day long.

19. (10) David Jiricek, CBJ – I would have this guy in my top three were it not for the wait time. In my main dynasty league I really need defenseman, and this guy may have the best upside out of all of them. But he won’t be this Quinn Hughes who steps in at age 19 or 20 and lights it up. No, this is a serious long-term play. It could be six years before he seriously helps my league. But then again, he could take huge strides forward over the next year the way Detroit’s Simon Edvinsson did over the last one. And for that reason, he’s in my Top 10.

20. (11) Marco Kasper, DET – And speaking of Detroit, I’m always looking for high-upside, highly-regarded players who get selected by teams that are rebuilding and have room. Enter Kasper. He’s a complete player with a high degree of certainty that he’ll make the NHL, and I like his chances in Detroit’s system. He is considered reasonably close to being NHL ready right now, and this is a team that should have a spot for him in a year or two when he could make the jump.

21. (12) Noah Ostlund, BUF – The only thing I like more than high-end skill is high-end hockey sense, because you can’t teach that. The Sabres are a rebuilding team, though they do have quality young centerman already in the lineup which is the reason Ostlund is down a couple of slots on my list. But we were looking at a three- or four-year wait regardless.

And that’s the full list of players I’m interested in from this draft today. A year from now, I have zero doubt that there will be another 10 or 15 who have jumped onto my radar. But higher picks such as Cutter Gauthier (PHI), Kevin Korchinski, (some questions about overall game), CHI and Conor Geekie (lower upside), ARI. While Pavel Mintyukov (ANA) and Rutger McGroarty (WPG) just missed my list and it came down to the wait time/upside balance. Joakim Kemell (NSH) missed the cut for this year because I’m not a fan of prospects coming through that system.

P.S.: But you can find out about all these players and every other good prospect out there via our Fantasy Prospects Report. Be sure to grab it. Since you’re getting the Fantasy Guide anyway, just buy the Keeper League Fantasy Pack and the Prospects Report then costs you just an extra six bucks.

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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