Yesterday in these Ramblings, we discussed the impact of free agency and signings on either the acquiring team or the team losing a player. There has been some recent movement in the league that I haven't touched on yet and is important to get to. For that reason, we'll be talking about a lot of defencemen today, specifically Jeff Petry, John Marino, Mike Matheson, Ty Smith, and the impacts for their new and old teams.

Let's start with the guy I think is among the most interesting young blue liners in the league and that's Smith.

Ty Smith

Going 17^th overall in the 2018 Draft would necessarily scream "can't-miss prospect" but Devils fans and fantasy owners alike were really excited about Smith getting to the NHL. His puck-moving and skating abilities were touted by just about everyone that ever saw Smith play. His rookie season saw some risky play, as his controlled zone exits were above average, but his failed exits per 60 minutes were below average (from Corey Sznajder's tracking data Patreon):

That high-risk nature of his game led to reasonable goals impacts but also led to a lot of chances behind him. In fact, it led to him having the worst expected goals against rate at 5-on-5 for the Devils in the COVID-shortened 2021 season.

This problem continued in 2021-22 for various reasons. His zone exits with possession remained above average, but he was constantly giving up the blue line when the opposition was attacking. He was the worst on the Devils' blue line roster in allowing controlled zone entries, and it wasn't particularly close:

Being in the top-right quadrant means not only are you allowing entries against more often than the league average, but the opposition is also getting scoring chances off those entries. Not every defenceman in that quadrant is a bad defenceman – we have Brian Dumoulin, Ryan Lindgren, and Ryan Pulock there – but there are a considerable number of bottom-pair/number-7 guys included, as well as some of the guys we consider weaker defensive defencemen. This is now two years in a row of giving up too much at the blue line and not making up for it near as much offensively.

But the skills are there to work on. Pittsburgh has a plethora of forwards and defencemen with lots of experience that can help his game along. He is a good playmaker who can help create offensively but the defensive weaknesses are so glaring that a coach will be reticent to trust him with 20 minutes a night. With the depth on the Penguins blue line, he'll be a bottom-pair guy anyway and will have the opportunity to grow his role in the coming years. Then again, all of Jeff Petry, Kris Letang, Marcus Pettersson, and Jan Rutta are signed for at least three more years. This is likely to be a long-term project and I'm not sure there's much here fantasy-wise in the short-term.

Jeff Petry

It is difficult to discuss Petry's 2021-22 season without bringing up the finger injury. He broke his finger during the 2021 playoffs and though he returned, the image of his blood-red eyes (vessels popped when they were fixing his finger) are something that hockey fans won't forget anytime soon. Also, with Montreal making a run to the Cup Final, he didn't get time to finally rest until near the middle of July. That doesn't leave much time to recuperate and then train for the preseason, which was about two months away. He struggled mightily early in the season, posting just two points in 27 games leading up to the COVID break in December. The issues went beyond points, as he managed just 3.6 shots per 60 minutes. Had he maintained that, it would have been by far his lowest mark in seven years (and it still ended up being his lowest mark, even with a turnaround later in the season).

But he got a month off from that COVID break and finished the season very strong. He had 25 points in the next 41 games, managing 5.8 shots per 60 minutes, much more in line with what he can do. I hate to just throw out a bunch of games but between his need to recover and the team's gross underperformance with Dominique Ducharme, it's hard to really lean on those first 27 games as some kind of caution. As long as he stays healthy, he should be a lot closer to the guy he was post-Christmas.

What Petry does very well is move the puck. He isn't particularly great defensively, though he's by no means bad in his own end, but it's the transition work where he thrives. As recently as 2018-2020, from CJ Turtoro's tableau visuals, Petry was 76^th percentile in shot assists (passes leading to shots) and 71^st percentile in zone exits with control:

Even in the shortened 2021 COVID season, per the same tracking data set referenced earlier, he was still league average.

His offensive success, beyond the exits, comes from finding teammates. His high-danger passes per 60 minutes in that COVID-shortened season (0.4) was similar to that of Victor Hedman (0.38), MacKenzie Weegar (0.4), and Kris Letang (0.42). That fell this past year, but again, it's hard to get a read on his season, and he was still a positive player in contributing to scoring chances and team shots, the only Montreal defenceman to do so.

As with any player entering an age-35 season, decline is a real concern. However, his playmaking ability is something that usually ages better than other areas of a player's game, and it has been a strength of his for some time now. He won't get top PP minutes, but that's not a strong point of his, and all the scoring Pittsburgh has puts 40 points on the table even with secondary PP minutes. With the big peripherals he usually posts, there's still a very good multi-cat fantasy defenceman here.

Mike Matheson

There are few NHL defencemen more interesting than Mike Matheson, especially for a guy who just set a career-high 31 points in 2021-22. Just watch him for a few games and we can see what scouts and coaches have seen for years: all the offensive tools necessary to be an impact player. He never really put it all together back in Florida, though, and it's one reason they were happy to trade him and his lengthy contract to Pittsburgh.

That all changed in Pittsburgh, of course. His two best offensive impact seasons at 5-on-5, as measured by expected goals, was with Pittsburgh, according to Evolving Hockey:

The curious thing is that he was never a bad player in transition. His controlled zone exits were generally around league average for a defenceman and his controlled zone entries were near the 90^th percentile:

But it's the shot assists that hurt. Shot assists are passes that lead to shots from a teammate and can show good playmaking abilities, as we just discussed with Jeff Petry. The good news is that changed when he got to Pittsburgh. His scoring chance contributions – his scoring chances plus those he created for teammates – was well above average, and in line with teammate Letang, as well as names like Jakob Chychrun, Darnell Nurse, and Tyson Barrie:

That was for the COVID 2021 season. For 2021-22, he was again neck-and-neck with Letang for Scoring Chance Contributions, as well as Shot Contributions. League-wide, he was comparable to names like Evan Bouchard and Sam Girard. These are all good playmakers in their own right and it shows the growth that Matheson's game went through in his two years with the Penguins.

What makes it all the more impressive is that he improved his defence of the blue line which made it harder for the opposition to generate chances against him. He wasn't a world-beater by any means, but he had improved from his days in Florida. Even being an average defensive rearguard, then combining his growing playmaking skills in conjunction with the transition game that he's always had, makes for a good puck-moving defenceman. He won't be a Charlie McAvoy or a Jared Spurgeon defensively, but he's not being paid to be that, and just continuing his game that evolved in Pittsburgh is enough.

I have had some inquiries as to whether Matheson will run the Montreal power play. I have my doubts because I think they liked what Chris Wideman did over the final couple months of the season and he'll get the first crack. But he could be in line for more ice time; after the Ben Chiarot trade, the Habs had four defencemen skate at least 19:42 and two of the four guys that got that ice time were traded in the offseason. He could easily see 20 minutes a night and that'll help his peripherals. A 30-point season should be seen as a success on a rebuilding team, but his peripherals have fallen off the last couple campaigns. He may not reach triple digits in either hits or blocks and posting just 30 points doesn't make for a very good multi-cat performer. If he does eventually earn that top PP role, then the equation changes, but I don't think we can draft with the assumption he'll get 70 games as the PP1 QB.

John Marino

Though it came out that Pittsburgh had been looking for a fit somewhere to trade Marino for a while now, it likely still came as a surprise to a lot of hockey fans. Good defensive second-pairing guys that are just 25 years old don't become available via trade very often. Nonetheless, the Devils have a new defenceman, and we need to talk about that.

From an underlying stats standpoint, Marino is a bit of a weird cat. His rookie season saw him reach at least the 65^th percentile in each of controlled exits (65%), controlled entries (68%), and shot assists (76%). He was also solid at defending the blue line, finishing around the top-third of defencemen. His defensive impacts were great, but it did not lead to much offensive impact. Rating that well in transition and playmaking but not having a positive offensive impact is a bit strange.

The COVID 2021 season was much of the same. His zone exits with possession and his failed exits per 60 minutes were better than league average, the only Pittsburgh defenceman to do so. He, again, was also above average in not allowing the blue line to the opposition. However, he was well below average in both shot and scoring chance contributions, so all that good transition/defensive work was not leading to offensive opportunities for him or his teammates. That problem persisted into 2021-22, where he was again below average in scoring chance assists and scoring chances individually among defencemen, even though his entries/exits with control and his shot assists were all well above average (again from the aforementioned Patreon):

This is what makes Marino such an interesting player from the perspective of his underlying numbers. There is clearly a player here who is good in transition, is good at defending his blue line, and is even good at finding teammates for shots, but none of this leads to good opportunities. The modern NHL – the last 4-5 years – is about creating premier scoring opportunities, not about bombing shots from the point. Not that he does that because he shoots very little as it is, but aside from shooting, it seems he possesses everything a modern defenceman needs except the ability to create scoring chances. It normally follows that transition + playmaking = scoring chances but that is not the case here whatsoever.

At this point we have to wonder what New Jersey will ask of him. He is surely stuck behind Dougie Hamilton and Damon Severson, assuming they keep all their blue liners on their strong side. He is good defensively, so maybe if he's playing 17-18 minutes a night on the third pair, he won't be asked to create a lot of offence. He'll almost be like a placeholder, waiting for Hamilton or Severson to get back on the ice.

He's unlikely to get much run on the power play without injuries, too. Marino already puts up meagre peripherals and if he loses a couple minutes in ice time, that'll hurt those categories even more. But he is going to a very forward-thinking team in New Jersey that has lots of wonderful playmakers, so maybe they can do for him what Pittsburgh did for Mike Matheson. He has five years left on his deal so there's lots of time to figure it out. Even if he doesn't, he's still a solid defenceman. Regardless of whether he does evolve that aspect of his game, though, it could take a couple years, so I'm not sure there's much here in fantasy terms for at least 2022-23 in any format.

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New Jersey signed their newest goalie in Vitek Vanecek to a three-year deal with a $3.4M AAV:

We have signed goalie Vitek Vanecek to a three-year contract.

📰: https://t.co/pw4IknW9LD pic.twitter.com/1jt6hE7oYd

— New Jersey Devils (@NJDevils) July 19, 2022

We don’t have a lot of clarity on the dynamic between he and MacKenzie Blackwood as far as starts go, but it sure seems like they’ll go with whomever is playing well. He could be a solid upside pick late in fantasy drafts.