In Wednesday's Ramblings, we talked about defencemen that had recently changed teams via trades. It really was a neat little four-pack of important players, for different reasons, that were all on the move. The through line for all the guys we mentioned, though, was that none were likely to get top power-play minutes in 2021-22, at least to start the year. Considering the top-9 scorers among defencemen, and 14 of the top 20. all had at least 20 PPPs this past season with none at 10 or fewer, having a power-play role is obviously very important to defence production. Guys like Shea Theodore and Devon Toews didn't post huge totals, but both sat at 12 and both are excellent offensive puck-movers.

For that reason, I want to look at some defencemen that could get prime power-play minutes this coming season. Obviously, most of the coveted roles are already spoken for, and even some of the less coveted positions. But sometimes all it takes is a bit of underperformance that could be related to play or injury – Damon Severson over Dougie Hamilton and Josh Morrissey over Neal Pionk come to mind – for a guy to leap in fantasy value. Both Morrissey and Severson set career-highs in PPPs after taking over the top PP role and, subsequently, had the best production seasons of their careers. (Morrissey was more because he played nearly a full season, but the point remains that he took over the role and had opportunities others did not.)

We will take the time today to go through some spots where a defenceman could slide up and take the top PP role as the season wears on. Injuries are difficult to predict so the focus will be more on tenuous holds of top roles where there is a competent puck-mover waiting in the wings. Data will be taken from Natural Stat Trick or our own Frozen Tools. Other sources will be credited as they're first used but all salary cap information will come from Cap Friendly. 

Jaccob Slavin

It is quite clear that Brent Burns will get the top power-play role out of the gate for the Hurricanes. That is a big reason why they traded for him – to replace Tony DeAngelo's presence. The difference is that Burns is probably also going to play top-pair minutes so if all goes right, there is a 60-point season waiting for him.

The issue for Burns is that his power-play prowess has fallen off as he's aged. By Evolving Hockey's power-play expected goals metric, he was a top-20 defenceman over the last three years, in line with guys like Morgan Rielly and Roman Josi. But it didn't translate to near as many goals as his expected goals impact was 17^th of 54 defencemen in our sample, but his actual-goals impact was 35^th out of 54 defencemen. A big reason, as I mentioned last week in a Ramblings, is that Burns (and San Jose in general) took a lot of shots from all over the blue line looking for deflections or rebounds. That is not something that Carolina does frequently and it's a wonder how those two clashing philosophies will work themselves out.

Slavin has the ability to run a power play; over the last three seasons, he's top-10 among all blue liners in expected goals at 5-on-4 (min. 175 minutes, 77 total defencemen in sample). It hasn't translated to a high rate of actual goals scored, though, which could tie into Slavin not necessarily having a top-PP skill set. One thing Carolina did very well this past season, according to Corey Sznajder's tracking data, was enter the zone with control and set up the power play; not far off from teams like Tampa Bay and Toronto. That is one thing Slavin had in common with Tony DeAngelo with the man advantage in 2021-22:

Perhaps he's not as good as Burns in this regard but he also won't waste possessions firing wrist shots from 60 feet. I do think Burns gets the run out of the gate and chances are he keeps the role, but Slavin is a safety valve and shouldn't be discounted going into fantasy drafts.

Mike Matheson

I mentioned yesterday that I think Chris Wideman gets the initial run on the top PP unit as he finished there strong last season. Once he took over under Martin St. Louis, he earned the most PPTOI per game, especially once Ben Chiarot was traded. The team wasn't excellent with the man advantage, though – 6.7 goals per 60 with Wideman on the ice under MSL. Now, considering Montreal scored 4.9 goals/60 up until the hiring of St.-Louis, that is a huge improvement. But 6.7 goals/60 at 5-on-4 would have been outside the top-20 teams league-wide over the course of the season. The team will want more than that, even in a rebuilding phase.

Enter Matheson. As mentioned in those Ramblings referenced, the one area he improved greatly during his time in Pittsburgh was his playmaking. He learned to not just rush the puck up the ice, but to have a plan (or vision) once they got into the offensive zone. Being a competent playmaker is very important with the man advantage, and it's something he's improved a lot over the last couple seasons.

He did struggle in his secondary minutes in Pittsburgh, though. Whether it's a function of still missing something in his toolbox or the Penguins not having a good second unit for his two years is up for debate. At 5-on-5, though, he was neck-and-neck with Kris Letang in shot/scoring chance contributions, which are simply the player's scoring chances plus those he created for others:

(For clarity, yesterday's Matheson scoring chances chart was for COVID 2021, this is for 2021-22.)

That he can create at 5-on-5 at least gives hope he can do it at 5-on-4. He is unlikely to get that top role out of the gate, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's running the power play after a couple months. Not that Montreal is expected to have a great power play, but top minutes are better than none.

Scott Perunovich

It really is tough what to make of Perunovich if only because his lone NHL season was cut very short by injury. There is also a long line of defencemen that could theoretically be the PP1 QB in St. Louis this year, starting with Torey Krug and Justin Faulk, and including even Colton Parayko and Nick Leddy. All four have some history of running a power play and that makes it a very tall mountain for Perunovich. But David Perron has moved on and he was a huge part of their power play. We could see some stumbles out of the gate and that could result in some blue liners shifting around, and would bring Perunovich into play.

One thing that stuck out to me watching the soon-to-be 24-year-old Perunovich was his skating and transition work. He seemed to get up the ice with the puck with ease and just getting into the offensive zone with control is half the battle. In a very small sample, this showed up in his micro stats (again from the Patreon mentioned earlier):

The St. Louis defence is somewhat set as they have seven NHLers under contract for 2022-23, not including this American rearguard. But we saw injuries hit them last season and if things go wrong without Perron, and a guy or two get hurt, there could be a PP1 QB waiting to take over. It's a long shot but I'm a believer in his talent.

Evan Bouchard

I am probably not the only person waiting for Evan Bouchard to go absolutely nuclear and have a monster fantasy season. To wit: over his last two seasons, he sits at 1.4 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Looking across the league, that puts him tied for 4^th among all defencemen (with John Carlson), with only the Colorado duo of Cale Makar and Devon Toews, plus Roman Josi, ahead of him. The funny part is he's only been on the ice for 2.7 goals per 60 minutes while both Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie are over 3.0 goals/60. He is more involved in the play, which makes a lot of sense when we look at his profile: In his brief 14-game 2021 season, he had similar carry-in percentages to guys like Makar, Erik Karlsson, and John Klingberg. His controlled zone exit percentage was near the top of the league, in line with Josi and Charlie McAvoy.

Now, we would be foolish to rely simply on a 14-game sample, which brings us to 2021-22. He had similar controlled zone entry rates as names like Zach Werenski and Devon Toews, was the only Oilers defenceman to be above average in both controlled zone exits and net controlled zone exits (successful exits less failed exits), and led the team's blue liners again in primary shot assists per 60 minutes. He also found open space, leading to the highest rate of high-danger shots among Edmonton defencemen, and similar to names like Seth Jones and Aaron Ekblad. This led to a lot of good offence for the team, as his HockeyViz offensive impacts were high (but he did give up a lot in his own end):

He reminds me a lot of Brent Burns in some sense. He loves to fire the puck from the blue line and that can be good for fantasy but bad for real-life impacts. It is obvious he's a very good puck mover, but he loves firing the puck from distance and that can often lead to what is functionally a turnover.

Tyson Barrie finished last season as the PP1 QB and he may just hold onto that role. To keep Barrie's contract from being an anchor, they need him to run that top unit, and he's very good at it. But we have seen Bouchard fill that spot from time to time. This is likely a case where it'll take an injury to Barrie for Bouchard to step in, but he's right on the cusp. Even without a top PP role, he's a 40-point defenceman on this team. But there is a lot more to come and if he can take another step in his development, he could force the team's hand.

That is about it for now. There are other guys that have crossed my mind like Justin Schultz in Seattle, Pionk re-taking the role in Winnipeg, Matt Grzelcyk getting another crack in Boston, and so forth. Those are all worthy candidates, to a degree, but we're running out of space. All I'll say is that most guys have the role locked down and will for the entire season, barring injury. That doesn't mean there won't be a couple surprises across the league and getting ahead of that is important to fantasy success.

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Just as a side-bar: anyone else kind of surprised Evan Rodrigues hasn't signed anywhere yet? Teams are running out of cap space and even some of those that have room – the Stars, Rangers, and Devils come to mind – have their own RFAs yet to sign. I'm not sure what the hold-up is, but I really do think he can help any team that signs him a lot. I did a deep dive on him back in May so I won't go everything again, all I'll say is he could really help teams like Nashville and Ottawa – teams missing scoring in the bottom-6 – and probably won't be too expensive at this point.