Between Dobber covering for me on free-agency opening day, and swapping days with Cliffy this week, it has been a while since I got to share some thoughts here.

I'll start with the draft, and though I am no prospect expert (I defer to the DobberProspects group on that one) I do find myself often having successful prospect drafts in my fantasy leagues. The more sources you can read to form your own balanced opinions on players, the better. That being said, I often find that it's not the average of the opinions that matter, but it's the outliers that you need to really take note in, and sort out whether there is something there that the consensus is overlooking, or whether it is just someone looking to be different for the sake of it.

On that note, one of the players that I saw a few scouts rank in the top-10, while his average ranking was probably into the 20s, was Noah Ostlund (16^th overall selection by Buffalo). Ostlund is one player that I think a handful of scouts really keyed in on as one of the more projectable players in the draft, and they bumped him up their draft board because they liked what they saw. However, with both of his linemates for the year (Jonathan Lekkerimaki & Liam Ohgren) also being draft eligible prospects, and playing a flashier game, I think Ostlund ended up often being overlooked, and was the consensus number three of the set as a result. In the end, I had him ranked as a top-10 guy for my fantasy drafts, and managed to snag him at #25.

A few others I like that seem to be falling farther than where I would take them in fantasy drafts: Denton Mateychuk, Brad Lambert, Lane Hutson, Gleb Trikozov, and Adam Sykora.

If you want to see some average numbers across fantasy leagues, then check out Tyler Matson's Twitter where has posted an updated list just last night:

32 Drafts ADP/Hi/Lo

1.Wright 1.46/1/4
2.Slafkovsky 2.43/1/5
3.Cooley 2.56/1/4
4.Nemec 4.84/2/13
5.Savoie 6.25/4/10
6.Jiricek 8.37/3/28
7.Gauthier 8.62/5/23
8.Nazar 9.40/1/21
9.Kemell 9.53/4/17
10.Lekkerimaki 10.25/5/16
11.Kasper 14.90/2/37

— Tyler Matson (@MatsonHockey) July 22, 2022

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I also haven't put out a rambling since free agency opened, and while I did share some of my thoughts in the site's fantasy take articles, I like to always have a best and worst contract signed. At this point, this is what they would each be:

Best – Ilya Samsonov (G), Toronto Maple Leafs

One year contract worth $1.8 million

Samsonov was viewed in the same tier as Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin not long ago, but never fully found his game with the Capitals. The Maple Leafs were a better team, and could hit a home run with a cheap goalie again this year. They also have the added advantage of Samsonov still being a restricted free agent next summer, and can retain his rights for at least another season. Getting a possible starting goalie with huge upside, but very little commitment has home-run written all over it.

HMs: Nino Niederreiter, Calle Jarnkrok, Dylan Strome

Worst – Erik Gudbranson (D), Columbus Blue Jackets

Four years at $4.0 million per year

I'll preface this by saying that if this was the difference between getting signing Johnny Gaudreau and not, then it doesn't look as bad. That being said, it's still twice as much and twice as long as the maximum someone should have been willing to pay a third pairing bruiser on defence. Bad-branson will still offer some solid peripherals in fantasy leagues, but in cap leagues he's nearly un-rosterable.

HMs: Nicolas Deslauriers, Nick Leddy, Ben Chiarot, Nikita Zadorov (sensing a pattern?)

If you want to read more into some possible free agency disappointments, Rick has you covered here.

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1. J. Gaudreau, LW (CGY – UFA)
Age: 28
Projected AAV: $10.6M
Estimated Term: 6-8yrs
The top player on the market, Gaudreau is worth as much as someone is willing to pay him. Sounds like CGY, PHI, and NJ are the more likely destinations.

📢 advertisement:

— Alex MacLean (@alexdmaclean) July 9, 2022

If you want to see the quick-hits breakdowns for each of the top-100 players, then click on the tweet with Gaudreau, and the rest are in the thread below it. If you just want the projections for the top-100 free agents as of June to work as a comparable for their new deals, click here.

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Though free agency has quieted down, there are still a few useful players out there between Phil Kessel, Nazem Kadri, and John Klingberg, but one name was crossed off the list yesterday in Nino Niederreiter (I think I can finally spell his name now). El Nino signed in Nashville for two years at $4 million per season, and the general consensus was that it is a bargain deal for the Preds. Niederreiter fills a need on the second line, and should bring a much-needed combination of goal scoring ability, and sandpaper to the second line alongside playmaker Ryan Johansen. The new Predators winger has paced for about 50 points in four of the last six season, while only seeing one season in his career above 16 minute of ice time per game. Expect a bump in ice time by the winger who has a track record of impressive metrics at even strength. However, it is unlikely that he sees much time with the man-advantage, likely capping his output around his previous career high of 57 points.

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If the Predators really want to bolster their top six, then they are rumoured to be one of the teams on Matthew Tkachuk's list where he would prefer to be traded. In order to acquire Tkachuk, who is one of the top winger in the game right now, and only 24-years-old, it's going to take a sizeable package, and the ability to fit a ~$10 million contract under the cap. With the acquisitions of Niederreiter and Ryan McDonagh though, the Preds are starting to push up pretty close to the cap. That is what will ultimately take them out of the running.

What it's going to take in a trade, is a decent, controllable roster player, a top prospect, a first round pick, and another asset. There are a few teams that could make it happen, though the St. Louis Blue and Vegas Golden Knights make the most sense at this point. With a move seemingly inevitable, we have to wonder what that does to Elias Lindholm's value. Losing one 100-point winger would hurt, but losing two 100-point wingers and replacing them with Andrew Mangiapane and Blake Coleman is just unfair. Without the two star wingers, Lindholm likely turns into a pumpkin 65-point centre, and the defencemen take a production hit across the board.

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The NHL schedule was released a couple weeks ago without much fanfare. I haven't had the time to go through my usual planning of the best and worst teams to own players from based on their head to head schedules, but keep an eye out for that over the next few weeks. One thing that I saw pointed out was how Arizona has a tough start, playing 20 of their first 24 games on the road. We saw this past year how that can affect a team like the Islanders, who struggled to get their momentum going all year. On top of that, as a bad team, a slow start can make for an impossible hole to climb out of. They were someone you were probably going to avoid to begin with, but maybe drop those players even farther down your draft boards.

One other scheduling quirk is the season starting overseas with the Predators and Sharks playing back to back in Prague on the 7^th and 8^th of October (Friday/Saturday). From there the next games are on Tuesday the 11^th, and there are no games on the Sunday the 16^th. The Predators and Sharks will both be playing game four by Saturday of that week, with some teams only playing game two that day.

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Deal got done tonight, can confirm that David Quinn is #SJSharks' new head coach. Expect the introductory press conference to be next week https://t.co/vFgBAxfV7u

— Sheng Peng (@Sheng_Peng) July 22, 2022

The Sharks also now have a new head coach. Without a lot of depth to the lineup, there's likely not a lot to shake up within the skater group, but with three goalies it will be interesting to see how Quinn handles things. In the crease, Quinn's history with the Rangers shows that he has a tendency to split starts more evenly than other coaches do at the NHL level. For the Sharks this year, having a three-headed goalie set of Adin Hill, James Reimer, and Kaapo Kahkonen, it means that even if one is traded, don't expect any of them to hit 50 games for the Sharks this season, and if all three remain with the team, it wouldn't be unreasonable to project less than 35 starts for each.

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Find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments. See you next Wednesday!