Ramblings – Looking at Interesting Potential Line Combinations… (July 25)
Dobber
2022-07-25
It seemed like just a couple of weeks ago when the Fantasy Prospects Report was last updated. Oh wait! It was! But now it's time to turn our focus to the upcoming Fantasy Hockey Guide, which is released on August 5th. I note in the shop that this will be a "partial release" but that was to cover my ass in case I don't quite get it all done. But progress is going very well and I think it will actually be complete. I may even have a surprise for you on July 31…
This will be the 17th edition. I can still remember the first one. In that first year I had called it a "Pool Guide Supplemental", marketing it as an "add-on" to the Guides you bought at the stand. It was 39 pages and sold for $1.99.
Last year's Guide was 196 pages. This year looks to be a tad more. We are adding projections for shots (previously only available with the Fantasy Geek add-on), and I'm expanding my write-ups for each team. Yes, it has definitely grown over the last 17 years. It was amazing that by the second year I had writers contributing to it already. I just opened up the 2007 one and see former writers like Jeff Angus, Jim Guenther, Chris Burns, Matt Bugg, Russ Miller and Tim O'Brien – and it was already expanded to 73 pages!
Thank you for your continued support!
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As I work through the Guide, I've of course been fiddling with the depth charts and seeing potential line combinations. It's great seeing an organization's plan unfold before you, once you dive in and really look at it. But while you can see the line combinations that make sense, you have to keep in mind that it rarely works out that way. Even NHL GMs are stumped by this thing called "chemistry" – and not through any fault of their own. On paper, everything makes sense. Of course David Perron will click with Sidney Crosby (!) and, failing that, of course Perron will click with Evgeni Malkin (!). A natural goal-scorer alongside an elite setup man? Yes please. But in 2015-16 Perron had 16 points in 42 games before he was inevitably traded to Anaheim. It does not always work as neatly in reality as it does on paper.
Anyway, here are some interesting line combos that I put together, worthy of discussion:
Seattle
Andre Burakovsky – Matty Beniers – Oliver Bjorkstrand
Jaden Schwartz – Yanni Gourde – Jared McCann
Brandon Tanev – Shane Wright – Jordan Eberle
How about 'The Killer B's'? That top line should be put together if only for that handle. The old-school pundits and non-fantasy owners keep opining that Bjorkstrand is some kind of second liner behind the likes of Eberle and Schwartz. Sorry, no. Eberle hasn't been a true scoring line player in years. Bjorkstrand is the best offensive player on this team (until Beniers and Wright inevitably catch and surpass him in a year or two). I'm not wrong about this. Last year I feel like I was the only one proclaiming McCann as their top offensive player. I him in last year's Guide as Seattle's leading scorer. He ended up being just that. I was right about that and I'm right about this. Bjorkstrand, Burakovsky, Beniers and McCann are your four leading scorers. Schwartz and Eberle won't even get 50 points (though Yanni Gourde will). Schwartz would need to play 80 games to reach 50 points and I don't think he will do that.
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Ottawa
Brady Tkachuk – Josh Norris – Drake Batherson
Alex DeBrincat – Tim Stutzle – Claude Giroux
Alex Formenton – Shane Pinto – Mathieu Joseph
A huge asterisk on this one. For those of you unaware (and I've spoken to people in one of my dynasty leagues who actually did not know) – there are very serious sexual assault allegations against eight members of the 2018 WJC Team Canada team. When the names are brought to light – and they will be – the punishment will be severe. I'm talking a one-year ban at least, a lifetime ban at most. And that's not even taking into account any legal ramifications. To my knowledge, all except nine members of this roster have come out and denied being involved. So I assume that the eight guilty players are among the nine remaining. Formenton and Batherson are among those nine.
I only speak to fantasy hockey and ignore the human factor. The Senators could lose those two key players for the season – and so could their fantasy owners. That would destroy what looks to be a nice top-nine here. And this will probably happen in an instant. As in – some Tuesday evening in mid-November the news comes out, and Batherson and/or Formenton are out of the lineup Wednesday, possibly for good.
But, in a world where none of this happens and they get to keep their players this season, Ottawa's scoring is about to skyrocket. I think that top line will stay together since they worked so well together, and they are still moving towards the peak of their career, only getting better. That second line is dangerous, as Stutzle now has two elite players to play with. DeBrincat is very underrated. One of the few who could get to 100 points (I'm talking long-term, not this year).
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NY Rangers
Artemi Panarin – Vincent Trocheck – Alexis Lafreniere
Chris Kreider – Mika Zibanejad – Vitali Kravtsov
Sammy Blais – Filip Chytil – Kaapo Kakko
I want to keep the Kid Line intact, but the Rangers are just so weak on the right wing. It doesn't make sense to continue trotting Dryden Hunt or Barclay Goodrow out there on the Panarin line. Not when Lafreniere is ready to take another step. The last 40 regular season and playoff games, he was close to a point every two. So I think a healthy Blais would complement that third line nicely. Kravtsov and Kakko can be swapped – and likely will be. I don't trust Kravtsov to produce with this opportunity, but I do expect him to actually get the opportunity. The Rangers need to add a cheap free agent right winger with upside, and perhaps are waiting on Phil Kessel to bring his price down to his true value (about $1M, if we're being honest), or Sonny Milano, Danton Heinen or Evan Rodrigues. Jonathan Dahlen, anyone? If and when they do that, I would reunite the Kid Line and bump Blais down. That would be an effective and dangerous top nine, even assuming the newcomer only gets 40 or 45 points.
As for Trocheck – don't forget that Panarin made Ryan Strome a 75-point player when he's probably only a 60-point player. He'll inject a good 15 points into Trocheck. Assuming, and here's that word again – chemistry.
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New Jersey
Ondrej Palat – Jack Hughes – Jesper Bratt
Yegor Sharangovich – Nico Hischier – Dawson Mercer
Tomas Tatar – Erik Haula – Alexander Holtz
The Devils have too many forwards. Even assuming Holtz isn't ready (he is), this setup still pushes Andreas Johnsson to the fourth line and Jesper Boqvist to the 13th forward spot. And before you brush off Boqvist as nothing, consider that he had 19 points in his last 40 games once his ice time jumped from 12 minutes to 14 per game. He's only 23 and finally ready to take another step towards becoming that future second liner. Is a trade going to happen? Just off the top of my head, I know that the Wild is lacking one top-six winger. Or even a potential top-six winger. They could use a Johnsson or a Tatar.
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Florida
Matthew Tkachuk – Aleksander Barkov – Sam Reinhart
Carter Verhaeghe – Anton Lundell – Sam Bennett
Aleksi Heponiemi – Colin White – Rudolfs Balcers
Depending on chemistry, you can swap Tkachuk to the second line and we already know Verhaeghe clicks with Barkov. Hell, from what we've seen over the last six months, Verhaeghe clicks with anybody. So this will come down to who Tkachuk clicks with. Lundell is ready for second-line duties and Bennett is coming off of two years of weak faceoff results and could easily be moved to the wing. If White gets injured, again, then you simply move Bennett back to the middle easy-peasy.
Balcers becomes this year's experiment. And judging by the results of prior experiments from this team – Jonathan Marchessault, Verhaeghe, Anthony Duclair (sidelined until March) – I wouldn't count out Balcers at all.
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Detroit
Tyler Bertuzzi – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond
Jakub Vrana – Andrew Copp – David Perron
Dominik Kubalik – Pius Suter – Filip Zadina
It would be wise to keep this top line together. The pieces on the second and third lines can be interchanged. One thought I have is that prospect Jonatan Berggren is very close and by midseason could sub in for Zadina or Kubalik, depending on which one is struggling. But Berggren is an elite setup man and those two are pure snipers – so the one that is left playing with the kid could really cash in. Injuries I'm sure will also play a role in Berggren's debut.
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Chicago
Hot Dog Vendor – Jonathan Toews – Patrick Kane
Zamboni Driver – Usher in Section C – Program Salesman
50/50 Tickets Salesman – Parking Lot G Security – Beer Vendor
Beer Vendor could move up or down the lineup, depending on how much he partakes in the product he sells before game time. The Blackhawks ask that any fans with tickets in Section C get to the game early, so that the usher can have them seated and then hustle to the dressing room.
I couldn't resist. Sorry Hawks fans…
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Buffalo
Jeff Skinner – Tage Thompson – Alex Tuch
Victor Olofsson – Casey Mittelstadt – Kyle Okposo
Peyton Krebs – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn
By November that third line would become the second line. And frankly I would prefer Vinnie Hinostroza over Kyle Okposo, but a coach would never bump an esteemed vet coming off a decent year. But if the coach did do something like that, then I would swap Quinn into Okposo's spot, upgrading that second line. Then I would put Hinostroza in Quinn's spot. Hinostroza worked very well with those two kids late last season. The first line would remain intact and be very effective. Thompson's emergence has really helped Buffalo's outlook. A healthy Mittelstadt and Tuch gives the Sabres great offensive potential.
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See you next Monday.
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As always mine differ significantly with a few exceptions.. I see no way though that Granato in Buf plays those 3 kids together on Buf’s 3rd line.
I bet in the guide you have Hot Dog Vendor getting about 40 points playing with Kane…