One of the most impactful trades of in recent NHL history occurred over the weekend as the long-rumoured movement of former Flames winger Matthew Tkachuk came to fruition. He was dished to Florida in exchange for Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, prospect Cole Schwindt, and a first-round pick. Dobber wrote about the trade impact back on Saturday. He also looked at potential line combinations in his Ramblings yesterday.

I wanted to take my entire Ramblings today to talk about the players traded, the impact on both sides, power play potential, and anything else that is relevant. Data will come from Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, with cap information from Cap Friendly. Let's start in Florida.

Something I had missed earlier this offseason was Anthony Duclair's injury. That he won't be back until 2023 opens some big offensive minutes. He had played frequently on Aleksander Barkov's line, as well as on the top power play. With Mason Marchment and now Huberdeau both gone, and Duclair injured, there are a lot of open roles at all strengths.

First, Florida's power play is going to need a fourth forward. There is Barkov, Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, and Aaron Ekblad on the blue line already locked in. With Huberdeau gone, they are missing a top-end playmaker to go with the goal scorers that they'll be using. For that reason, I don't think Patric Hornqvist jumps up there, or Sam Bennett, either. They just don't need players like that with Tkachuk already on the top unit. It makes me wonder if Carter Verhaeghe isn't going to finally get a crack at a big power-play role. It seems as if it's going to be him or Anton Lundell, and Lundell strikes me as the guy who will be the centre on the second unit (at least to start). I'm wondering if we don't see a huge jump in both TOI and production from Verhaeghe like we saw from Valeri Nichushkin this past season. Paul Maurice is the coach now and he likes to use a set power play for as long as he can. If Verhaeghe does get that role, he could be a 70-point winger now.

To put a finer point on it, Verhaeghe has been one of the top scoring chance contributors in all of hockey over his last two seasons. Per Corey Sznajder's play tracking, his scoring chance contributions (scoring chances for himself, plus scoring chance assists for teammates) were elite in the COVID 2021 season:

Those same contributions were as strong in 2021-22 as well, so we have two years of great scoring chance generation for himself and teammates. There's no guarantee that this carries over to the power play, but they would do well to at least see if it can work.

In his Ramblings, Dobber brought up the prospect of Lundell moving up to be the 2C and Bennett going to the wing. It is very possible, but I'm still operating with the assumption that Bennett will be the 2C with Lundell staying as the 3C, leaving Colin White on the wing. Basically, it comes down to one of Bennett or White being moved to the wing and I'm going to assume it's the guy who has played at roughly a 32-point pace for a few years and needs to re-establish his career.

It is important to get it as close to right as we can when discussing the 2C/3C role. Remember back to Maurice's Winnipeg coaching days, the top-6 – and the top line particularly – got lots of ice time. In COVID 2021, the Jets had four forwards skating over 18 minutes a night; the Panthers had three. Paul Stastny, who was often on the top PP, skated nearly 17:30 per game. If Bennett or Lundell get the top PP role, that's roughly what we can expect for their ATOI, which would be a small increase for Bennett and a large one for Lundell. If it's Verhaeghe, it falls somewhere in the middle. The way Maurice leans heavily on four or five forwards is really good news for the fantasy value of those forwards, but not good news for everyone else. Even if Bennett stays the 2C at even strength, without those valuable minutes, he might not get much more ice time. It seems like even with all the roster movement, his fantasy value will be fairly static.

If Tkachuk ends up on the second line with either Lundell or Bennett (or both), I have serious concerns about his fantasy value. He could have a great season with top line, top PP deployment, skating all his production minutes with Barkov. The Finnish pivot is a tremendous offensive talent and they could have great seasons skating next to each other. Though I do think highly of both Lundell and Bennett for different reasons, neither is on Barkov's level, and it's an open question if any of them are on Johnny Gaudreau's level. This is brought up for the simple fact that when Tkachuk was skating with Gaudreau over the last three seasons, the Flames scored nearly two full goals more per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (4.73) than they did when Tkachuk was skating with anyone else (2.80). There is a very good reason why the one season Tkachuk was well in excess of a point-per-game player was also the season he skated over 1000 minutes with Gaudreau at 5-on-5. If Florida's second line ends up being something like Tkachuk-Bennett-White, or Tkachuk-Lundell-Bennett, I have serious concerns about him reaching anywhere close to the highs he achieved in 2021-22. Tkachuk can certainly help Lundell reach another level in his even strength scoring but I'm not sure that will be reciprocated. That is why how these lines shake out will be very important and we won't get clarity on that until training camp.

Losing Weegar on the backend isn't a death-knell for offence, but the defence could take a hit. I agree with Dobber's assessment that Gustav Forsling likely takes those even strength minutes and that will be great for his fantasy value. I also believe that putting him in that role will make the defence a bit weaker, and that will have ripple effects through the lineup. With Ekblad on the ice without Weegar over the last three seasons, the team's expected goals against rose by roughly 15% and actual goals against rose by roughly 18%. Ekblad skated about 37% of the team's even strength ice time and back-of-the-napkin math tells me if the defensive numbers without Weegar hold constant, we could see at least 10 extra goals being scored against the Panthers with Ekblad on the ice. That doesn't sound like a lot, but just that impact alone would have dropped Sergei Bobrovsky's save percentage from .913 – which was above the league average of .907 – to a below-average mark of .906. There would also be a commensurate rise in goals against average. All that doesn't factor the impact of moving Forsling to the top pair and having weaker second and third pairs on the ice because of the players being moved around. The effect of losing just one excellent defenceman could be disastrous for Goalie Bob's fantasy prospects. It wouldn't surprise me to see him and the team struggle defensively out of the gate and that leading to more starts for Spencer Knight.

It would be very good for Forsling's fantasy upside, though. We saw what Weegar did in the last two seasons with a prime even-strength role, posting 80 points in 134 games, or 49 points/82 games. Forsling is a good puck mover in his own right and his offensive impacts have been very similar to Weegar for a few years now, per Evolving Hockey:

Forsling had 37 points in 71 games in 2021-22 and 40 points would be a reasonable full-season expectation for him. He could easily see a career-high in TOI per game, around 22-23 minutes a night, and that, along with top pair deployment, should see a career-high in points as well. Like Dobber, I also think we see a bigger role from Lucas Carlsson this year, but it's Brandon Montour that could be a big beneficiary. He was under 18 minutes a night in 2021-22 and still put up 37 points. If he can get back to 20 minutes a game, he could also see his first career 40-point season.

Our 2022-23 Dobber Draft Guide, which is currently being constructed, will have projected lines and power-play units. My guess for Florida to start the season is something like this at even strength:

Tkachuk-Barkov-Reinhart

Verhaeghe-Bennett-White

Cousins-Lundell-Balcers

And this on the power play:

Tkachuk-Barkov-Reinhart-Verhaeghe-Ekblad

Going to Calgary, this is great news for Elias Lindholm. He was staring down the prospect of losing both his top-line wingers without a great replacement, but he got one of the best playmakers in the league in Huberdeau. His scoring chance assists, again from Sznajder's data, are near the top of the league for the last couple seasons. Not that his playmaking ability was much in doubt, but that both the eyes and the data line up is usually a good thing. I also think this means Tyler Toffoli gets to the top line, where he had often been stuck on the third line following his move to Calgary. Between Montreal and Vancouver, both spots where he got prime deployment, Toffoli managed 43 goals in 99 regular season games. All the changes puts 30 goals back on the table for the 30-year-old winger and it wouldn't shock me if he surpassed his career best of 31 in 2015-16.  

A top line of Huberdeau-Lindholm-Toffoli won't reach the highs that the top line of Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk reached, but that doesn't mean they won't be great. All three should get top power-play time as well and that's the big key for Toffoli. He had to battle with Sean Monahan and Andrew Mangiapane for PPTOI in 2021-22 but with the two wingers moving on, he's all but assured that top PP role. How the power play manages is another question but there is still more than enough talent to create offence between Huberdeau/Lindholm/Toffoli and one of Mangiapane/Monahan.

There is an open question about how the defence shakes out. They have Weegar, Noah Hanifin, Oliver Kylington, and Nikita Zadorov as left shots with Rasmus Andersson and Chris Tanev as right shots. Two of those left-shooting blue liners are going to be on the third pair with one of them on their off-side. Hanifin led their left-shooting d-men in even strength TOI last season. Should Weegar slide in on the top pair, Hanifin won't repeat that performance. The team's goal scoring was cut nearly in half in 2021-22 when Hanifin wasn't on the ice with the top line and like I said earlier, the new top line should be very good, but won't be what that line was last year. His first season in Calgary, 2018-19, saw him post 33 points in 80 games skating under 21 minutes a game. A 35-point season seems very reasonable for him, assuming he's on the second pair with Tanev, but that's a steep drop from the 48 points he just posted. That he's not a big peripheral defenceman means his value in multi-cat leagues is likely taking a significant hit this coming campaign.

This trade also doesn't bode well for Kylington's fantasy value. He seems to have finally hit his stride in the NHL but with Andersson on the power play, and both Weegar and Hanifin ahead of him on the depth chart, it doesn't seem like he'll be getting much more than the 18:10 a night he got in 2021-22. I do think he's good enough to move up to the top pair in a couple years, so his long-term dynasty value hasn't changed much, but it's probably status quo for his fantasy performance coming up in the near-term.

Mangiapane could be the biggest beneficiary of all the moves. He was on-and-off the top PP unit in 2021-22, skating 1:47 a night overall with the man advantage. That top PP billing, along with a bit more ice time at even strength, should see him around 17 minutes a game. It is also important to remember he didn't skate much with the top line, getting a lot of second-line time skating with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. That trio controlled 64% of the expected goals and 72% of the actual goals when they were together last year:

They should be able to stay in a somewhat consistent role as the second forward line with Mangiapane moving to the top power play. I get that we may have some doubts about posting another 35-goal season, considering he shot nearly 19%, but he's been a 17.3% shooter over the last four seasons (250 games). More ice time at all production strengths should see a potential drop in shooting percentage be softened and leaving 30 goals well in play again. Of course, they could try to go back to Monahan on the power play in an attempt to resurrect his career following his injuries and that would really put a wrench in all this.

Again, guessing at lines for now, I think we see something like this at evens:

Huberdeau-Lindholm-Toffoli

Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman

Pelletier-Monahan-Dubé

That third line is all left shots, but I really don't know what else they can do. Maybe Trevor Lewis over Dubé? But then you're still left with Dubé and Milan Lucic, both left shots, on the fourth line wing.

As for the power play:

Huberdeau-Lindholm-Toffoli-Mangiapane-Andersson

Those are my guesses and are subject to change based on my mood on a given day. This trade has considerable ramifications for both teams, which makes it one of the more fun trades we've had in a while, from a fantasy perspective.

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We did get one announcement I had kind of been dreading but thought was very likely:

Welcome back, @DmitrijJaskin 🇨🇿!

📊 137 Pts (77 G, 60 A) in 133 GP in KHL pic.twitter.com/bivyw02mBY

— KHL (@khl_eng) July 25, 2022

Jaskin is a guy I've been high on for basically a decade now and thought he would really be an impact NHLer, especially after his recent return. He suffered a brutal injury early in his Arizona return and is now going back to the KHL. At the age of 29, this might be the end of his NHL career. We'll always wonder 'what if' or I will be, at least.