Ramblings – Bubble Keeper Week 2022! Your Questions Answered… (Aug 15)
Dobber
2022-08-15
OUT NOW!
I released the Fantasy Guide on August 4, but guess what? On Sunday the 14th I re-uploaded it with updates for the ninth time. That's right – nine updates already. I don't like having a single thing wrong in this Guide. The best person to have putting together and updating a Guide is someone as obsessive as I am. You've seen it for 17 years. Pick up the Fantasy Guide here and immediately download both the PDF and the spreadsheet.
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Fantasy Hockey Geek also has this year's projections in the system, and although updates aren't as frequent for Geek (maybe weekly instead of daily), it now has the latest update in.
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Welcome to Bubble Keeper Week!
For the past several years, the gang here at DobberHockey have dedicated the entire week to analyzing and providing our opinions on those players who are on the bubble. Should we keep him, or drop him? Do we keep this guy or that guy? These decisions are tough! Each article this week will be slanted towards these decisions. I'm sure at some point we will have provided help with several of your tough calls.
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Oh man, so I see a question like this and realize that I'm in for a tough article. Josh Norris is not only a proven top scorer at just 23, but now he's paid like one. Dylan Larkin is now in his prime at 26, with a budding team around him that is poised to take off in one or two years. Norris' team, Ottawa, is ready to take off right now. And then there is 29-year-old Vincent Trocheck, who hasn't really been the same player since returning from all the ankle and foot stuff he dealt with from 2016 through 2019. But he's been healthy for the last couple of season and producing middling numbers. Furthermore, now he is playing with Artemi Panarin, likely, as he is replacing Ryan Strome on that team.
I think it's best to play it safe with Larkin, who is looking to be a steady and safe 70-plus player for the next few seasons. He's more proven than Norris. Unless your league counts plus/minus, in which case I would go with Norris. Trocheck is a great sleeper, but that's the problem – he's a sleeper, not a guarantee.
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This is Stutzle vs. Buchnevich to me. I have Stutzle for 63 this year and Buchnevich for 78. But longer term, Stutzle is the guy who could reach 95. This is obviously a shallow league, to be looking at not keeping these guys. Try and trade whichever player will give the best return and keep the other guy. Failing that, if you're rebuilding you keep Stutzle, if you're going for it you keep Butch.
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I keep the 90+ forward over the two top D. Miller is just too good not to keep, even though my general philosophy is to keep defensemen over forwards. Miller is just too high end.
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Bertuzzi has been slightly better in points-per-game over the last three seasons, he's been slightly healthier, and his cap hit is a tad lower. So you should keep Bertuzzi.
See their Player Compare page here.
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I keep Jarry here as he is too great a fantasy goaltender to let go. You would dominate the goalie categories. I would keep Kadri out of the skaters. Worst-case scenario, he signs with the Islanders. And even there I think he still gets 65 points or so. After the season he just had, his new organization will do everything in their power to help him get as close to repeating it as possible. That means the top PP time, the top linemates – everything.
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Nikolaj Ehlers and Drake Batherson are the two to go with here. Yegor Sharangovich does not have the upside and Vrana does not have the reliable healthy body.
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I hate the idea of having to drop three of these players, as they are all near-80-point players and all in their prime (or about to enter it). But I go Fiala, Keller, Lindholm, Bratt. For what it's worth, I don't consider these players "bubble" caliber, as most keeper leagues are Keep 10, 12 or more and these guys are surefire keepers. Our focus this week will be addressed more to those leagues.
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You can see their compare-a-player page here. I like Zegras for the upside and Batherson because he's also very productive and is decent for Hits and PIM. So those are my two.
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Not bubble players for our purposes this week (and as an aside, a Keep 3 league to me is not really a keeper league but pretty much a full redraft). But for what it's worth, I always lean defensemen and Fox is a Top 3 fantasy D. Keep him.
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Kaapo Kakko and Eli Tolvanen have the most upside, but Kakko is likely a longer wait while Tolvanen has some risk. Keep Kakko but understand that it's for the 2025 payoff and not the 2023 payoff.
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I would keep Robert Thomas over either of those guys. Better pedigree and higher upside. Yes, there is a risk of injuries, but he'll be worth it.
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Jakob Chychrun all day long. I have lost faith in Pulock's ability to ever get to 50 points, and barring a trade I don't even think 40 will happen. Whereas Chychrun has very high-end upside and is not even at his prime yet.
Evander Kane, due to the McDavid factor.
Jack Campbell, because you don't pick the goalie you pick the team. Lots of wins to be had.
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I wouldn't consider Vitali Kravtsov in this one. As for the other two, what a great question. I like Troy Terry for the coming season, but Kailer Yamamoto for all future seasons. Yamamoto also doesn't have Terry's injury track record. So I go Yamamoto.
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I keep the three defensemen, even though you can only keep five in total. Those are three of the top four defensemen to own in fantasy hockey. I also keep Kirill Kaprizov and Nikita Kucherov, potential top five scorers both. If you aren't comfortable keeping three D, swap Pastrnak in for Hughes. But I like the three D.
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This one will come down to injuries. Both have taken big steps forward over the latter half of the season (when healthy). Both have equal obstacles to step over to get significant playing time. Both are highly-valued and highly-drafted prospects in Toronto's system. I'm leaning Liljegren due to his being a year older and better Pts/60 rate.
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Flip a coin on this one, but I'm leaning Eklund. Our FPR has these two with the same upside and a 3YP (points likelihood) that his also extremely close (McTavish with the slight edge there).
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Thank you everyone who responded to my Tweet. Enjoy the rest of Bubble Keeper Week here on the site.
See you next Monday.
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that was so useful. thanks.