Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 team, points-only league where defensemen are coveted, a GM has to drop four players of the following players. Who should the drops be?

F – Jonathan Huberdeau, Vladimir Tarasenko, Evgeni Malkin, Mark Scheifele, Jesper Bratt, Jake Guentzel, Ryan O'Reilly, Ivan Barbashev, Brayden Schenn, Tage Thompson, Patrick Kane, Cole Caufiled

D – Jared Spurgeon, Sean Durzi, Samuel Girard, Jakob Chychrun, Kris Letang

G – Connor Hellebuyck, Frederick Andersen

I think the team needs to shed at least two of its St. Louis forwards. For sure Barbashev is not a keeper, as he doesn't have a shot at major PP minutes and his SH% was stratospheric, meaning he'd be hard pressed to reach the 60-point mark again. What about the other two – Schenn and ROR? As we saw in 2021-22 the Blues seem to be wanting to run three scoring lines, and still should be able to do so despite losing David Perron. Also, Schenn and ROR have ostensibly been overtaken in the center pecking order by Robert Thomas. Yes, Schenn had a strong second half and ROR a solid Q4 and playoffs; but when looking at the other forward keeper options all are locked into the top six and major PP1 minutes. If choosing between Schenn and ROR, I'd likely go with Schenn, as ROR lost Perron so it's less clear how he'll fare.

I'm also dropping Durzi. Yes, his skill on the PP could net him major man advantage minutes, freeing the aging Drew Doughty to concentrate on the "heavy lifting" aspects of playing D. In other words, although Doughty can still run a PP and many true #1 D-men do so, the fact that Durzi is there and showed he can fare well on the PP might prompt the Kings to shift Doughty's focus more so on preventing the other team from scoring rather than helping his own team score. Why not keep Durzi then? Because his stats are well disguised, making him a redraft.

The last cut, to me, is Spurgeon, notwithstanding that D are coveted. He has been running the Wild PP more so by default, and I believe that Calen Addison is primed to do in Minnesota what Moritz Seider did last season in Detroit, namely waltz in as a rookie and claim the PP1 QB role, as, like Doughty, Spurgeon's value is more as an all-around defensemen and he essentially was QBing PP1 because no one else was a better candidate, which, make no mistake, Addison is. Take away PP1, and Spurgeon is a point per every other game d-man, which won't cut it.

I realize that Girard had a poor 2021-22 and seemingly would appear to be more of a drop than one or perhaps even both of those two. However, we saw what Girard can do in 2020-21 and chances are he gets traded due to the emergence of Bowen Byram, plus the presence of Cale Makar and Devon Toews. On a new team, if he were to get moved, Girard could explode. His upside is too high to not keep, so the drops should be Spurgeon, Durzi, Barbashev and ROR, although a case could be made for it to be Schenn over ROR – they're that close.

Topic #2 – What is the view on whether being traded caused the value of Jonathan Huberdeau, Kevin Fiala, Alex DeBrincat, or Tony DeAngelo to increase, decrease, or stay the same?

Huberdeau had more SOG per game than in all but one prior season, and still shot slightly above his career rate, plus had more PPPts per game and his highest ever TOI per game, all to go along with career bests in IPP both overall and on the PP. Had everything merely remained the same it'd have been difficult for him to come close to duplicating his production; yet he's now on Calgary, a team which scored almost a half a goal per game less than the Panthers with Johnny Gaudreau, who's now gone. Huberdeau scoring at a 91-93 point pace for three seasons in a row prior to the 2021-22 campaign is difficult to ignore as well. My forecast for Huberdeau's scoring rate for 2022-23 is 5% chance of under 80 points, 30% between 81 and 90 points, 55% from 91 to 100 points, and 10% over 100 points. Long story short, he's likely going to see a decrease.

Fiala tallied 85 points despite only 17 on the PP, with the next lowest PPPt total for any of the 21 skaters with more points in 2021-22 being 26. He also had an identical shot rate and SH% as his 2020-21 season that saw him score at a 66-point pace. Also, his overall IPP was in the 78-80% range for the third straight season and his IPP on the PP a four season low. LA will give him all the PP time he can handle, and the level of talent with which Fiala plays should be much better, as he'll likely be centered by Anze Kopitar, who, even at 35 when the puck drops on 2022-23, figures to be better than Frederick Gaudreau, who was Fiala's main center this past season. I have Fiala's at 5% to finish under 70 points, 15% in the range of 71 to 80 points, 45% in between 81 and 90 points, and 35% for 90+ points. Most likely he should see an increase.

DeBrincat had 41 of Chicago's 213 goals, for a percentage of 19.2%, which was the highest rate for anyone who scored as many goals as him. His 14 PPGs for a team that had a total of 47 man advantage goals was the second highest percentage of anyone who had as many PPGs, behind only new teammate Josh Norris. DeBrincat's situation in Chicago is he got all the ice time he could handle due to him and Patrick Kane being the only sources offense. Ottawa figures to slot DeBrincat on a PP1 that should rival any in the league, and on the second line alongside Tim Stutzle, who, despite season totals that don't look superb, had 31 points in his last 27 games, and Claude Giroux, who, in Florida, had 23 points in 18 games. DeBrincat might not factor into as many goals, what with more talented teammates, but the Sens should score a lot more goals in total, such that it should be a net positive. I project DeBrincat at a 5% chance of under 70 points, 20% in between 71 and 80 points, 45% in the 81- to 90-point range, 25% from 91 to 100 points, and 5% over 101 points. Pencil him in for an increase as well.

As for DeAngelo in Philly, I think it will be a feast or famine situation, with little chance of him having just an okay season. Cutting against success will be a fear that John Tortorella being a hard-line coach will not mesh with the strong personality of DeAngelo. On the other hand, the two could find a happy medium, with DeAngelo thriving in response. The other concern is Torts will realize that Philly, as presently constituted as a team, is not going to win games by piling on points; so he might implement a defensively-focused system, which not only could hurt DeAngelo's production but also increase the chances of discord between the two. My points projection for DeAngelo is 35% under 40 points, 10% in between 41 and 50 points, 10% in the range of 51-60 points, 35% for 61-70 points, and 10% for 71+ points. As I said, it's a feast or famine situation, making it so not only is he a major risk/reward play but also it difficult to say whether he's due to see an increase or decrease.

Topic #3 – In a weekly H2H dynasty, keep 10 league starting 6F, 3D, 1G plus 10 bench spots and with categories of G (5), A (3), PPG (1), SHG (1), PIM (0.2), W (5), SO (5), SV (0.2), GA (-1), a GM is leaning toward keeping Artemi Panarin, Elias Pettersson, Johnny Gaudreau, John Tavares, Trevor Zegras, Cale Makar, John Carlson, and Andrei Vasilevskiy, but is torn on which other two to keep between Robert Thomas, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Chris Kreider, Noah Dobson, Mason McTavish, Quinton Byfield, Alexander Holtz, Thatcher Demko, and Jeremy Swayman. Do the eight denoted keepers make sense? If not, who should be swapped out? If so, who should the other two be?

I think that the younger players are too young – and the number of keepers too small – for them to be kept, even though they could be kept forever. If this was a keep 20 league, or guys like Byfield, Holtz, and McTavish were a year or two into their career, then maybe they might enter the conversation. As it stands I think Zegras is almost a stretch, so keeping true rookies here seems like too much to sacrifice.

I'm also not keeping another goalie, as this is a 1G league and Vas is good enough that having Demko would be superfluous. Swayman would not have a lure as a keeper either since it's weekly starts. Vas, plus a drafted lower tier goalie, should be more than enough. And add Kuznetsov to those I'm not keeping, as he's fine to have on one's team but given his age his upside is limited and Washington might start to slow as a team, in which case that should be at least somewhat guarded against by keeping only Carlson.

That leaves Kreider, Thomas and Dobson for the last two spots. With Kreider never having once even scored at a 60-point pace in a prior season, his 78-point pace for 2021-22 rightfully seems high. Here's the thing – even in past seasons Kreider was good for a goal per every three games, and in 2020-21 he had 11 PPGs in 50 contests. He's also been a PIM per every other game guy until recently. As great as Thomas' 2021-22 was, he would've had a total of 276 fantasy points. Compare that to Kreider's 2018-19 when he had a mere 52 points but due to his goal total and PIM and his fantasy points would've been 229. Let's assume Kreider won't come close to duplicating his 2021-22, when he had a whopping 369 fantasy points; even if he drops to only 40 goals and 15 on the PP though, that'd likely put him ahead of Thomas, who, in getting 20 goals, shot well above his career rate such that only two players (teammate Ivan Barbashev and Marcus Foligno) had more goals despite taking fewer shots. In this format, I favor Kreider, as the categories are directly in his wheelhouse and his "spot" in New York is ironclad.

Then who to keep between Dobson and Thomas? It would seem like an easy Thomas; however; if one does a deeper dive one sees that Dobson put up 47 points in his final 64 games, including 36 in his last 47. He also had all his 13 goals in his last 67 games. And this occurred in a Barry Trotz "defense first" system. Moreover, Dobson won't hit his 200-game breakout threshold until this season, which happens to coincide with a new coach at the helm who, although supposedly a Trotz disciple, realizes that what Trotz was doing didn't work, so offense likely will be given a higher priority, to the benefit of Dobson.

I think that Thomas' type of game is just not well-suited enough for this scoring system to make him a better keep than Kreider or Dobson, or, most likely the other eight who were identified. If the GM doesn't want to lose Thomas though, I could perhaps see not keeping Tavares or Zegras, although I believe both of them make more sense to keep, leaving Thomas the tough omit.

Topic #4 – In a keep 16, H2H league where 12F, 6D and 3G start and scoring is points only for skaters and wins only for goalies, a team is pretty set on 12 of its keepers (Sebastian Aho, Leon Draisaitl, Jack Eichel, Jordan Kyrou, Brad Marchand, Auston Matthews, Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, Noah Dobson, Miro Heiskanen, Morgan Rielly, Frederick Andersen) and needs to pick four others, plus a "rookie" who must have <25 games of NHL experience, from the following list: Matt Duchene, Jesper Wallstedt, Jack Quinn, William Eklund, Matt Boldy, Bowen Byram, Jamie Drysdale, Conor Garland, Neal Pionk, Michael Bunting, Bo Horvat, Scott Perunovich. Do the 12 make sense? If not, who should be removed? And either way, who are the additional keeps?

First off, I have zero qualms with the list of 12. Perhaps one of them is not better than the other choices; however, no question all of these 12 deserve to be among the final 16.

Looking first at the <25 game rookie, Wallstedt is a ways away from making an impact, and even then it's not automatic he'd be a major success. Look no further than the last ten goalies who were taken in the first round: Jack Campbell, Mark Visentin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Malcom Subban, Ilya Samsonov, Jake Oettinger, Spencer Knight, Yaroslav Askarov, Wallstedt and Sebastian Cossa. Not even an average of one per year. Vas became a true #1, but wasn't a starter until four seasons after he was drafted, as also occurred with Oettinger. Campbell was a journeyman for many seasons, Samsonov has not yet made a reliable impact, Subban and Visentin were busts, and the jury is still out on Knight. I'm not keeping Wallstedt here, especially with the other options available.

Eklund impressed in his brief time with the Sharks last season and is all but assured to be walking into top six minutes this season. Quinn dominated in the AHL, but Buffalo has several wings angling for top six time, and he might find himself on the outside looking in, although if he does land a spot, the team stands to be better than the Sharks in terms of scoring. Still, as I've preached in my columns, when deciding between two players who are close enough in skill give me the one with a secure spot on a bad team in most cases, and this is one of them. Do I prefer Eklund to Perunovich though? Yes, as St. Louis seemingly has its top four in Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, Justin Faulk and Nick Leddy. Perunovich could force the issue, but I'm afraid he won't get the minutes to do well in the near term, so I prefer Eklund as the <25 game rookie.

For the other four keepers, the list of 12 includes eight forwards and three defencemen. That is relevant because it consists of two-thirds of the forwards necessary to start, but only half the defensemen. Given that, plus no positional requirements at forward and the added depth pool of forwards versus d-men in general, I'm inclined to keep Byram, who I believe will do well enough to force a trade of Samuel Girard and is a 50+ point d-man as soon as this season, and Drysdale. While Drysdale won't get great deployment this season given the signing of John Klingberg, he stands to improve alongside the Ducks as a team, such that both should be in great shape come 2023-24.

That leaves two more spots, and I see the contenders as Matt Duchene, Matt Boldy, and Bo Horvat. Bunting I don't like because if he's not tethered to Toronto's best then his stats likely would crater. Garland is tempting, but I fear he just isn't the special player we thought he might become. Boldy has such great upside that even with Kevin Fiala being gone he should be one of the two. For the other spot I'm taking Duchene now that Filip Forsberg is indeed staying in Nashville. We finally saw Duchene show up in a non-contract year so I think he can replicate his success. Horvat is a tough omit, especially given he had 26 points in his final 24 games; but I like the other two a bit more.

Topic #5 – Is there a forward who has a chance to come from nowhere and be a multi-cat beast along the lines of what Tanner Jeannot did in 2021-22?

I think the odds of someone replicating the across the board success of Jeannot are unlikely, as he was so valuable in several key categories. Still, there are several forwards who could stand to make noise in banger leagues and might be off the radar of poolies except perhaps those in the deepest of those leagues.

Two are on the Canucks. The first is William Lockwood. He had better than a point per every other game in the AHL last season; and although he didn't tally a point in 13 NHL games he had one SOG per game, 49 hits, plus nine blocks and nine PIM. So if he makes the team, he could be one to watch. Another Canuck forward to watch is Dakota Joshua, who likewise had better than point per every other game scoring in the AHL and nice banger stats in 30 contests of 31 SOG, 77 hits, 16 PIM, ten blocks, 40 FOW and even was a +6.

As for those on other teams, there's Mark Kastelic, who, although he was used sparingly by Ottawa and didn't manage to log even 10:00 of ice time per game, did have four points in 16 contests, with 11 SOG, 51 hits, 14 PIM, ten blocks, and even 70 FOW, and that was on top of 28 points in 64 AHL games. Another one to watch is Anton Blidh, who appeared in 32 games for the Bs, with 24 PIM, 28 SOG, 82 hits, and 17 blocks while skating 10:44 per game, and could be used for grit in Colorado. I'm also intrigued by Jack McBain, who only played ten games but had three points, 13 SOG, 33 hits, nine blocks and 35 FOW; and he had 33 points in 24 games for Boston College, suggesting he could be more than just a banger, especially on a weak Arizona team.

Who else might fit the bill? There's Alexei Toropchenko, who skated in 28 contests for St. Louis, but 17 in Q4 alone, with 43 SOG, 69 Hits, 21 blocks and 15 PIM on the season; and he was just below the point per every other game mark in the AHL. If we're looking for someone who did the best in the AHL, it's A.J. Greer. Yes, he's played parts of five NHL seasons and never skated in more than 17 games and might just be a full time AHLer; however, if he does get a chance in the NHL he could make waves, as last season in nine games he had 20 hits and 14 SOG. Given how depleted Chicago is, there might be room for Reese Johnson to skate in more games than his 37 in 2021-22 and for more time than his 10:38 per game. If so, he could put up very nice stats, what with 141 hits in those games, plus 16 PIM and 107 FOW. Lastly, there is Mason Geertsen, who only made it to the NHL last season at age 27 and had zero points in 25 games, but in those contests had 77 PIM and 58 hits – so not really a threat to be a scorer, but a major banger contributor.

Long story short, I don't see signs of anyone among this bunch who is likely to replicate what Jeannot did, as he seems like a true unicorn. Perhaps lurking among them there's the next Keegan Kolesar, Austin Watson, Nicolas Deslauriers, or Brandon Duhaime.

Topic #6 – In a 12 team, keep 8, weekly H2H (but daily line-up changes) league with starting lineups of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, plus 5 bench and 4 IR and categories of G, A, PPPts, +/-, SOG, PIM, GWG, HIT, W, SV%, GAA, a team wants to keep Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, and Kyle Connor, leaving four spots left to fill from Jack Hughes, Tim Stutzle, Trevor Zegras, Rasmus Dahlin, Juuse Saros, and Connor Hellebuyck. Which two of the six don't make the cut? Given the categories, does it make sense to retain both, one, or neither of the goalies?

As was pointed out in the Forum thread, goalies may represent only 17% (i.e., 2/12) of the starting line-up spots; however, their categories account for 27% (i.e., 3/11) of scoring, and 27% of eight keepers equals two, suggesting both goalies should be retained. But it's not that neat and tidy, as only one of the three goalie categories – Wins – is volume-based, whereas the other two – SV% and GAA – are skills-based. In fact, if you had a guy like Hellebuyck on your team in this league last season he hurt you more than he helped due to his poor GAA and not great SV% in logging many minutes. It's unclear whether Hellebuyck will rebound. Yes, for what it's worth Hellebuyck has never really had two terrible seasons in a row, although he's also now 29 years old so his ability to bounce back might be less certain than if, say, he was a couple years younger. Let's label Hellebuyck as a maybe for now, and let's lean yes for Saros, who's a workhorse but also has solid peripherals.

No question Hughes is one of the four. He had 48 points in his last 36 games on a Devils team that had, at best, an average supporting cast of wingers, plus his ice time, PPPts and even SOG could all still rise in the normal course, as could his production if/when some of the younger Devils wingers come into their own. Hughes is a cornerstone keeper.

Dahlin, although not at Hughes' level just yet, finished with 16 points in 20 games for the Sabres, who averaged 3.4 goals per game in those 20 contests – versus 2.79 per game on the season as a whole – and that was despite being shut out twice. Yes, the Sabres have Owen Power, but it is Dahlin who is the more prototypical offensive defenseman. He has 60-point downside and his upside is well into the 70s and, depending on his teammates, perhaps even 80+ points. He's just that good.

That leaves Stutzle, Zegras, Saros, and Hellebuyck for the last two keeper spots. I think it'd be unwise to retain no goalies, so Saros makes the cut. Stutzle has appeal because he posted 31 points in his last 27 games and that came with the likes of Alex Formenton, Connor Brown and Adam Gaudette mainly lining up alongside him. Fast forward to now, and suddenly Stutzle could be centering Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux. The downside is those two likely will push Stutzle off PP1; however, the Sens will have one of the best second units in the league and I figure the points he stands to lose on the PP he'll more than make up for at even strength. Zegras will the be top line center at ES and on the PP, and the Ducks figure to be a lot better on offense, what with Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano signed this offseason. Still, I can't see how Anaheim has the same firepower as Ottawa in the near term, and Zegras might not get better to an extent that he'd overtake Stutzle down the road, so between those two I'd go with Stutzle.

Then is it Stutzle or Hellebuyck as the final keeper? Keeping Hellebuyck would allow the team to not need to worry about snagging a goalie; however, as noted above Hellebuyck is a workhorse in a league where that does not benefit the majority of goalie categories. I think if it was Saves instead of SV% or if Winnipeg had hired Barry Trotz as had been rumored, maybe Hellebuyck would have more lure. Given the current realities though, I think Stutzle is the better keep, making it so Stutzle, Saros, Hughes and Dahlin are the keepers in addition to MacKinnon, Rantanen, Makar, and Connor.

Topic #7 – What does the future hold for Rasmus Andersson? Is his place on PP1 solidified and what are his realistic projections?

Andersson, who won't turn 26 until October, has seen his scoring rate, SOG rate, TOI and PPTOI increase three seasons in a row, as did his IPP on the PP. But is this a case of a player succeeding because his team didn't have other viable options, or is he "for real?"

One key is while Noah Hanifin was posting 20 points in his final 20 games, Andersson's overall TOI was the highest it had been all season long, and his PPTOI tied for his best of any quarter. It appears the team was content to let Andersson continue to occupy his role despite the surge from Hanifin, who, of course, was a much more highly touted prospect and whose break out was only a bit later than the 400-game mark when many defensemen, especially those who were in the NHL very young, tend to do so.

Andersson's IPP, OZ%, and secondary assist percentage have been virtually unchanged as he morphed from a 26 point scoring pace in 2019-20 to a 50 point pace scorer in 2021-22. One area that gives me optimism is Andersson's number of big games, as he had 11 with two points and one with three, meaning he had only 23 other games with one point, such that his 50 points came in just 35 games. The result was Andersson had the 13th most multipoint games among all defensemen. Looking at the four who had more total points but didn't get a point in at least 60% of their games, we see Charlie McAvoy, Rasmus Dahlin, Aaron Ekblad, and Devon Toews. Three – Toews, Ekblad, McAvoy – had very high secondary assists percentages, perhaps calling into question their ability to keep up their scoring pace. That was not an issue for Andersson or Dahlin, with Dahlin being an up and comer who should take his game to the next level soon, perhaps this season. Given this data, Andersson's ability to produce big games without any other unsustainable good luck, paints the picture of a d-man who's indeed for real.

Is Hanifin a threat, or even newly acquired MacKenzie Weegar? I'd say no for Weegar, who did not sniff PP1 time even when Aaron Ekblad was hurt. As for Hanifin, yes he shoots more than Andersson; however, my take is unless Andersson falters on PP1, the gig is his, with Hanifin being more of an all-around defenseman. Is it likely that Andersson received a boost from the Calgary offense, with his being a boat that was lifted amidst an overall rising tide? Yes, but as long as Andersson keeps his PP time, his metrics are solid and his scoring explosiveness suggests that his downside is 45-50 points and he is more likely to reach or even exceed 55 points than fall below the point per every other game mark. I'd say he is a solid tier two fantasy d-man.

Topic #8 – What do Detroit's offseason signings mean for Jakub Vrana? Can he still become the top player many thought he'd be?

The excitement surrounding Vrana a couple of seasons ago was justified. After all, before Vrana met the criteria in 2019-20, the last forward who scored at a .75+ points per game pace despite skating for less than 15 minutes per game was some guy named Nikita Kucherov in 2014-15. Since then, Vrana has shown flashes of superb play, like 11 points in as many games while firing 32 SOG after being dealt to Detroit in 2020-21, although that was on a 25% SH% percentage. His SH% was still high – 20% – in 2021-22; however, it was offset by a mere 16.7% secondary assist percentage, meaning he had both unsustainably good and bad luck in 2021-22, likely meaning his scoring rate, which for the third season is a row was between 59 and 62 points, is a good barometer. That consistency though raises questions as to whether Vrana has more in him than what we've seen, and, even if he does, whether his propensity to get injured will endanger his "spot" in the line-up and/or negatively affect his talent level.

One positive about Vrana's 2021-22 season was six PPPts in 26 games, translating to a rate of more than one per every five games for the first time in his career. That having been said, three came in contests when his percentage of his team's PP minutes was 57% or higher, meaning he was on PP1. Chances are, though, that David Perron, who stood ninth in PPPts among forwards over the past three seasons despite only taking the ice for the 58th most PP minutes, will be a PP1 staple, as, presumably, would be Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Lucas Raymond. That would leave Vrana on PP2, which, although not ideal, likely would be a decent unit consisting of himself, plus three of Andrew Copp, Dominik Kubalk, Robby Fabbri, and Filip Zadina. Moreover, the Wings don't lean on their top unit nearly as much as many teams, meaning Vrana, even if on PP2, realistically could take the ice for ~40%+ of his team's PP time.

That same depth also would serve Vrana well at even strength, where he'd likely slot with Perron, an elite performer since his rebirth in Vegas, and Copp, who's seen his point pace increase six seasons in a row. Just as with PP time, the Wings didn't put their top line out there as much as other teams, with none of Larkin, Bertuzzi, or Raymond skating for 20:00 a game. Vrana could succeed even if not playing with top tier linemates, as in three of his last four seasons Vrana's overall IPP has been above the 70% mark I equate with fantasy success. In fact, last season it was 90.5% overall and 85.7% on the PP, suggesting that if he is not put with the best players on his team he can find a way to carry a line by factoring into the scoring.

Let's also not forget that as highly touted as he is, and as outstanding a rookie season as he had, 29 – or more than half – of Raymond's 57 points, came in his first 31 games, meaning he tallied only 28 in his final 51 games, including two in his final nine. While the most obvious explanation was him hitting a rookie wall, the Wings likely would not have qualms about moving Raymond to the second line should he underperform or Vrana excel. The problem is not only would those things have to occur, but Vrana would need to stay healthy, which is something he has found it tough to do these past two seasons. Plus, with the Wings being keenly aware of the IPP numbers for Vrana last season, they might rather have him create offense on the second line, making it so his IPP success could actually work against him in a way.

If Vrana is deployed on the second line at ES and on the PP, chances are he produces in the 50s, or perhaps a bit above. If he can stay healthy and somehow elbow Raymond off the top line at ES and/or on the PP, then he should be able to sleepwalk to a career best 65+ point pace. But those are big ifs, plus, as noted, Vrana's performance as a Wing has come with an elevated SH% and high IPPs when playing with less talented guys, such that the Wings could be content to let him fill that role and surround Raymond, who, let's face it, is more highly regarded than Vrana at this point, with the best Red Wing forwards.

If you have Vrana in a keeper, I'd hope that somehow he finds a way to the top line and, with that, better numbers. If that doesn't happen I'd not be too worried about his scoring pace dropping despite his high SH%, as his IPPs are outstanding and he'll be on a line with better players than last season and on a team which doesn't lean heavily on it's top line at ES or the PP.

Topic #9 – In a salary cap league where forward positions do matter and the categories favor goals – A(2), G(3), GWG(1), SHG(1), Hat Trick(1), Overtime Goal(1), Shootout Goal(1), +/-(0.5), PPA(1), PPG(1), SHA(1), SHG(1) – who has more value now and down the road, Brayden Point or William Nylander?

First off, although I do agree that goals definitely matter in this league, I wouldn't say they're weighted too much. Perhaps the most notable stat is plus-minus, as a player who's very plus or very minus can definitely affect one's team. Fortunately, neither of these guys fits that bill, so they can be assessed based on their stats. Salary also matters a lot though, and Point is locked in a $9.5M through the rest of this decade, while Nylander earns $6.9M this season and next, then will be due for a raise; and although it's highly unlikely he'd receive $9.5M, if he chooses to hit the open market rather than trying to stay with Toronto, he could come close. Still, if that comes to pass then Nylander will be more of a focal point player, so perhaps his stats would improve compared to what they project to be on Toronto.

As for the next two seasons though, I'm giving Nylander the advantage, and not just by a little. Point's subpar 2020-21 seemed like a fluke, and at the time could be dismissed due to Nikita Kucherov not playing in the regular season; but Point essentially produced at the same level in 2021-22. It can't be blamed on Kucherov's missed time, as Point had 28 points in 29 games in Q1 and Q2 when Kucherov appeared in only 11 total contests, while when Kucherov had 52 points in 36 games in the second half, Point produced only 30 in 37 games. To make matters worse, Point's 2021-22 marked the second season in the last three where his IPP wasn't only below the 70% mark I like to see from a player to consider him a likely fantasy success – he didn't even hit the 60% mark. On top of that, his secondary assist rate was 50% or higher in two of the last three seasons, including both a sub-60% IPP and over 50% secondary assist rate for the 2021-22 campaign. This suggests he is not integrally involved in the offense and the points he did manage to have were to some extent unsustainable. All this occurred when he had a career high 2.7 SOG per game, so expecting improvement there is unlikely.

Meanwhile, Nylander finally was installed on the top PP unit in Toronto, which clicked at a rate of 27.3%, which not only was tops in the NHL in 2021-22 but represented the fourth highest rate of any team dating back to 2010-11! And with the success that occurred coinciding with Nylander seeing lots more PP time, I'd look for things to continue, and lack of PP1 time was all that seemed to be holding Nylander back from being an 80+ point player. Yes, Nylander also topped his career best SOG rate; however, his SH% stayed within his normal range, so that isn't a concern. Also, Nylander's PP IPP didn't budge from his usual 60-65% rate; so even as he was finally sharing the ice with the best of the best on Toronto's PP1, he still factored into man advantage scoring at the same rate. As for his overall IPP, unlike Point it's never been below 62.8% and in two of the past three seasons it was above 70%. That puts to rest any concern that Nylander was being carried by the Toronto stars, as does the fact that Nylander had 22 points in 19 games in Q4 when his most frequent linemates at ES were Pierre Engvall and David Kampf!

Point's early career and playoff success seem to be looking more like that isn't the real him, as he is a passenger who can't find a way to factor into the scoring enough for his production to rebound. Nylander, on the other hand, is now a PP1 star and produces whether alongside the best of the Toronto best or less talented players. As if those weren't enough to tilt the scales to Nylander, there's the fact that he plays wing, which is a far less deep position than center, at which Point is only eligible. He also scores more goals, and his salary is considerably less the next two seasons and should stay low if he wants to keep the Toronto core intact. I'm taking Nylander here, and it's a lot less close then I thought it would be before I did a deep dive.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for a few more questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or email [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line