In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss a few players to avoid because of their high ADPs (average draft positions) in upcoming fantasy drafts. Keep in mind, Yahoo's ADPs aren't the most accurate at this point in the offseason. As a result, we won't pay too much attention to the ADP itself, but we'll use it as a stepping stone to discuss players being overvalued.

Claude Giroux

Although I think the Senators are a much better team this year than they were last year, and I do believe Claude Giroux is still an impactful player, I have a hard time justifying his current Yahoo ADP of 56.  I'm hesitant to pay such a high price because there are so many unknowns involved. Ottawa's forward group will look different this year following the offseason additions of Alex DeBrincat and Giroux. Most lineup projections have DeBrincat and Giroux skating together with budding star Tim Stützle. On paper, that's a really good line, but we've never actually seen them play together and it's entirely possible they don't mesh well. I remember being so high on Taylor Hall when he signed in Buffalo to play with Jack Eichel, but that didn't exactly work out.

Another point to consider is that players joining new teams often need time to adjust to new systems and get familiar with new teammates. Let's say Giroux needs 10-15 games to develop chemistry with new linemates in Ottawa. He probably won't be producing at a high rate during those games, and that could be end up being the difference between him finishing the season as a 60-point player or a 70-point player. Would you really be happy drafting a 60-point player with the 56^th overall pick?

One more unknown which makes Giroux's fantasy value hard to gauge is Ottawa's power play. The team has six forwards capable of playing on the top unit, but there's only room for four of them as Thomas Chabot will likely be the fifth member, manning the blueline. Power-play production has been a big part of Giroux's output throughout his career. Even though Ottawa's second unit boasts more talented than most other teams, Giroux's offensive ceiling will be limited if he's stuck in a secondary power-play role. The way I see it, Giroux's fantasy value has skyrocketed to reflect the best-case scenario playing out in Ottawa, not necessarily the most likely one. Such a high cost leaves more room for disappointment than satisfaction.

Tony DeAngelo

DeAngelo saw his fantasy stock fall when he signed with the Flyers during the offseason, leaving a talented roster in Carolina behind for a lacklustre group in Philadelphia. When a player's team gets worse during the offseason, we often develop a negative bias against them. During the offseason, we don't actually get to see what the player looks like on their new team, so our perceptions become centered around storylines. It's easy to see that a player's situation got worse, so it's easy to conclude that their production will drop off accordingly. In many cases, our perception of the player's situation ends up being worse than the actual situation, and we overestimate the player's drop-off.

Before fantasy drafts began, I expected that the description above would apply to DeAngelo, since most of the news surrounding him painted a bleak fantasy outlook. He was joining one of the league's worst teams – a team whose leading scorer posted a measly 52 points last year. A team that would be run by John Tortorella – a tough coach who places an emphasis on defensive discipline and does not have a reputation for fostering offensive creativity. It's intuitive to think that an offensively focused/defensive liability like DeAngelo would end up in Tortorella's doghouse this season, leading to reduced minutes and fewer offensive opportunities.

Based on those factors, I thought DeAngelo might drop to the 150-200^th picks of fantasy drafts, leaving lots of room for him to outperform such a low ADP. However, his current Yahoo ADP of 120 is a little too rich for my blood, so I'd prefer to avoid him this year. DeAngelo is an offensive defenseman whose best seasons came while quarterbacking talented power-play units in New York and Carolina. While he'll probably see many minutes with the man advantage in Philadelphia, it's hard to envision him producing at the same level considering (1) the Flyers had a league-worst 12.6% success rate on the power play last year, and (2) they lack the superstar talent that DeAngelo benefitted from playing with in the past. I could see him having a good year, but given where he's being drafted, I'd much rather go for a safer pick like Thomas Chabot (ADP = 115).

Sam Bennett

Now, with an ADP of 143, the price to draft Bennett isn't astronomical. However, I think he's overvalued because he's being selected ahead of better center options like Dylan Larkin (ADP = 146), Nick Suzuki (ADP = 158), and Mathew Barzal (ADP = 158). Bennett is coming off a career-best year that saw him tally 28 goals and 21 assists in 71 games, for a 57-point pace. After averaging fewer than 14 minutes of action per game in recent years, Bennett was trusted with 17 minutes a night last season and enjoyed a 42% share of Florida's power-play time. Although a secondary role on the man advantage doesn't seem like the best opportunity, it was certainly an upgrade on the 20-30% share he'd seen in Calgary. The overall increased role brought his offensive output to new heights, and we could see him score at a similar rate this year as he's poised to play a prominent role again.

Bennett has potential to outperform expectations this season if he can crack the top power-play unit – which is certainly a possibility. However, I think he'll face competition from Carter Verhaeghe and maybe even Anton Lundell for that role – a role that could eventually go to Anthony Duclair later in the season, when he returns from an Achilles injury. Outside of the power play, I think it's worth noting that Bennett spent a lot of his even-strength minutes beside superstar Jonathan Huberdeau last season. With Huberdeau in Calgary now, Florida's new line combinations likely leave Bennett with less talented linemates than he had last season, which may make it slightly harder to produce at a similar rate.

Overall, I think a lot of people see Bennett taking on a bigger role this season, and expect another step up in production. I don't believe that's the most likely outcome and I think there are safer center options, so I'd prefer to avoid him in fantasy drafts.