In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss a few players to avoid because of their high ADPs (average draft positions) in upcoming fantasy drafts. Keep in mind, Yahoo's ADPs aren't the most accurate at this point in the offseason. As a result, we won't pay too much attention to the ADP itself, but we'll use it as a stepping stone to discuss players being overvalued.
Although I think the Senators are a much better team this year than they were last year, and I do believe Claude Giroux is still an impactful player, I have a hard time justifying his current Yahoo ADP of 56. I'm hesitant to pay such a high price because there are so many unknowns involved. Ottawa's forward group will look different this year following the offseason additions of Alex DeBrincat and Giroux. Most lineup projections have DeBrincat and Giroux skating together with budding star Tim Stützle. On paper, that's a really good line, but we've never actually seen them play together and it's entirely possible they don't mesh well. I remember being so high on Taylor Hall when he signed in Buffalo to play with Jack Eichel, but that didn't exactly work out.
Another point to consider is that players joining new teams often need time to adjust to new systems and get familiar with new teammates. Let's say Giroux needs 10-15 games to develop chemistry with new linemates in Ottawa. He probably won't be producing at a high rate during those games, and that could be end up being the difference between him finishing the season as a 60-point player or a 70-point player. Would you really be happy drafting a 60-point player with the 56th overall pick?
One more unknown which makes Giroux's fantasy value hard to gauge is Ottawa's power play. The team has six forwards capable of playing on the top unit, but there's only room for four of them as Thomas Chabot will likely be the fifth member, manning the blueline. Power-play production has been a big part of Giroux's output throughout his career. Even though Ottawa's second unit boasts more talented than most other teams, Giroux's offensive ceiling will be limited if he's stuck in a secondary power-play role. The way I see it, Giroux's fantasy valu