Last week we used a custom table built from Frozen Tool reports to get an idea of some players who could be in line to disappoint if we take their 2021-22 production too seriously. This week we are going to flip the script and see what those same data points tell us about players who might be primed for a rebound.

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics: Potential Bounce Back Candidates

As a general reminder here is some background from last week to clarify what we are looking at and why.

For the purposes of these tables my target stats were personal shooting percentage, team five on five shooting percentage, IPP, and secondary assist percentage. I also was interested in time on ice, and expected goal numbers, but the table got a little unwieldy for this format so I slimmed down my criteria a bit. I chose a lot of these stats because with the exception of time on ice and expected goals (which I ended up not including), there is a lot of variance baked into the result. If players are showing deviations from their norm in these stats, chances are at some point it is going to regress back to the mean.

I used the Big Board Report to grab time on ice, games played numbers, point pace numbers, and time on ice (I used the point pace and games played numbers to account for small sample sizes and make sure we were focusing on fantasy relevant players). I then pulled the Advanced Stats report to get five on five shooting performance, IPP, and secondary assist percentage. I also used the time frame feature on the reports page so that I could compare 21-22 data to that player's recent average. I ran a report for the 21-22 season, and then a three-year report to get the reference point.

The table below shows all the candidates who had worse performances across the board in 21-22 than in their most recent three-year average.

				Change in Performance
Name	Pos	Age	Team	S%	5on5 S%	IPP	Sec Asst %
DAVID PASTRNAK	R	26	BOS	-1.3%	-0.80	-4.50	-1.67
PATRICK KANE	R	33	CHI	-0.8%	-0.40	-1.87	-3.40
JAKUB VORACEK	R	33	CBJ	-3.0%	-0.60	-0.53	-8.77
TYLER TOFFOLI	R	30	CGY	-2.7%	-1.07	-2.70	-2.00
JACK EICHEL	C	25	VGK	-1.8%	-0.30	-8.40	-10.87
NICKLAS BACKSTROM	C	34	WSH	-2.5%	-0.07	-8.70	-4.47
CONNOR BROWN	R	28	WSH	-3.0%	-0.27	-0.70	-8.73
ZACH WERENSKI	D	25	CBJ	-2.8%	-0.13	-6.00	-2.30
SEAN COUTURIER	C	29	PHI	-4.4%	-2.57	-7.73	-16.13
CAM FOWLER	D	30	ANA	0.0%	-0.07	-0.87	-11.40

To read this table we start with some basic info about a player (position, age, and team), and then we move into the changes in performance. For Tyler Toffoli his shooting percentage has dropped from about 13 percent on average over the past three seasons to just over ten percent in 21-22, a drop of about three percentage points.

David Pastrnak and Patrick Kane aren't too interesting here as all of their changes are fairly small. Nicklas Backstrom and Sean Couturier can be ignored for the moment with their injury troubles. Someone like Jack Eichel is interesting as he performed reasonably normally on his own, but his IPP and secondary assist rates were quite a bit down implying he didn't get in on as many goals as we would normally have expected. I would imagine that is something that is likely to bounce back rather than a reflection of his new environment.

Zach Werenski is the most intriguing here. He put up a career high 58-point pace, but somehow makes the list of potential bounce backs. His team rate was fine, but his own personal goal rate, and his IPP were down meaning that if his deployment sticks (which it should as Seth Jones remains in Chicago) he could be in line for another career best year.

The above list contains only players who were below average in all areas, but players aren't that specific. In the following tables I want to look at some of the high-end differences.

First up is personal shooting percentage. These players all had a shooting percentage at least three and a half percent lower than their recent career average. For the sake of space, I manually edited the list slightly. Given we are focusing on players who might bounce back, I removed players who had shooting percentage as their only outlying stat.

Name	Pos	Age	Team	S%	5on5 S%	IPP	Sec Asst %
PHIL KESSEL	R	34	VGK	-4.91%	2.30	-7.07	-3.87
T.J. OSHIE	R	35	WSH	-4.39%	-1.53	1.53	13.77
SEAN COUTURIER	C	29	PHI	-4.38%	-2.57	-7.73	-16.13
TRAVIS KONECNY	R	25	PHI	-3.79%	0.37	-3.83	-15.47
JADEN SCHWARTZ	L	30	SEA	-3.49%	-0.23	2.77	-9.07

There are a few interesting names here. Phil Kessel looked like he deserved a bit better in most cases, plus is going to a new team with the opportunity to maybe slot in in the top six/get some looks with Eichel. That certainly makes him an intriguing late round flyer.

Travis Konecny had a "down year" only if you assume his one 75-point pace season is his standard. Otherwise, his point pace matches most of the rest of his career. He did seem to deserve better though, and as a Konecny manager for much of last season, I kept waiting for 'better' to materialize. The problem this year is just Philly in general. With Couturier out and Claude Giroux gone it remains to be seen if Konecny will have anyone to play with, and I think he has made it clear he can't really go it alone.

I like Jaden Schwartz as a candidate but the big if is health. He was fine, if not spectacular when healthy, but the numbers indicate he deserved a bit better. With reinforcements in the fold in Seattle there should be more goals to go around, and the hope is Schwartz can be a part of that.

The next table includes those players whose team five on five shooting percentage decreased by more than two percent. Again, the caveat holds that some players were removed for the sake of visual accessibility if there were no other red flags (or if they were Sean Couturier – who has already been discussed and may miss the entire season anyway).

Name	Pos	Age	Team	S%	5on5 S%	IPP	Sec Asst %
ELIAS PETTERSSON	C	23	VAN	0.12%	-3.50	4.50	0.33
BROCK BOESER	R	25	VAN	-0.48%	-3.40	-2.27	7.60
PATRICE BERGERON	C	37	BOS	-3.12%	-2.53	8.10	-2.33
JAKUB VRANA	L	26	DET	3.81%	-2.07	13.40	-10.50
ZACH HYMAN	R	30	EDM	-1.84%	-2.03	0.33	-14.83

Love this for Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser. Pettersson's red hot second half certainly evened out his personal shooting percentage and IPP, but his linemates still were scoring dramatically less than usual while he was on the ice. That should rebound a bit and benefit both him and Boeser.

The final table here is those players whose IPP was ten or more points worse than their recent average.

Name	Pos	Age	Team	S%	5on5 S%	IPP	Sec Asst %
TYLER SEGUIN	R	30	DAL	1.88%	-0.23	-17.17	8.20
NIKOLAJ EHLERS	L	26	WPG	-0.99%	0.40	-11.17	-9.93
ANDRE BURAKOVSKY	L	27	SEA	-2.47%	0.43	-11.13	-2.33
RICKARD RAKELL	R	29	PIT	2.31%	0.73	-11.03	6.77
TOMAS HERTL	C	28	S.J	-0.34%	0.70	-9.93	-3.13

One oddity in this list is how different the secondary assist numbers are across the board. One possible explanation for an IPP being low is that players weren't getting in on their usual amount of secondary assists, but that is only true in a meaningful way for Nikolaj Ehlers. Other players' two or three percent isn't that big of a fluctuation in secondary assist rate. Ehlers is definitely the most interesting one here. His overall point production more closely mirrors his 19-20 70-point pace season, but the underlying numbers more closely resemble his 80-point pace 20-21 season. It doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility that he could return to that 80-point pace given these numbers.

Andre Burakovsky is the other interesting one here but given his move to Seattle and how much is going to change for him, it is hard to read into these numbers. He should get more ice and more opportunity, but it remains to be seen if he can step up into the top line role he will probably get for the Kraken.

That is all for this week

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