Frozen Tool Forensics: Bounce-Back Candidates for 22-23, Including Schwartz, Pettersson, and Werenski

Chris Kane

2022-09-23

Last week we used a custom table built from Frozen Tool reports to get an idea of some players who could be in line to disappoint if we take their 2021-22 production too seriously. This week we are going to flip the script and see what those same data points tell us about players who might be primed for a rebound.

This week on Frozen Tool Forensics: Potential Bounce Back Candidates

As a general reminder here is some background from last week to clarify what we are looking at and why.

For the purposes of these tables my target stats were personal shooting percentage, team five on five shooting percentage, IPP, and secondary assist percentage. I also was interested in time on ice, and expected goal numbers, but the table got a little unwieldy for this format so I slimmed down my criteria a bit. I chose a lot of these stats because with the exception of time on ice and expected goals (which I ended up not including), there is a lot of variance baked into the result. If players are showing deviations from their norm in these stats, chances are at some point it is going to regress back to the mean.

I used the Big Board Report to grab time on ice, games played numbers, point pace numbers, and time on ice (I used the point pace and games played numbers to account for small sample sizes and make sure we were focusing on fantasy relevant players). I then pulled the Advanced Stats report to get five on five shooting performance, IPP, and secondary assist percentage. I also used the time frame feature on the reports page so that I could compare 21-22 data to that player's recent average. I ran a report for the 21-22 season, and then a three-year report to get the reference point.

The table below shows all the candidates who had worse performances across the board in 21-22 than in their most recent three-year average.