Last week, my Ramblings discussed my projections that I have started cobbling together. My first run of projections covered overall value in a multi-cat league that includes goals, assists, power-play points, shots, blocks, and hits. There was a method used to value each player's contributions (or lack thereof) in each category to try and assess their overall impact in each statistic, looking for total fantasy estimates that each skater brings. My second run included positional scarcity and replacement value to try and figure out how to value a centre against a defenceman, a winger against a centre, and a winger against a defenceman. I very much encourage readers to go through both those Ramblings to see how positions can affect fantasy value and how that can be advantageous to fantasy players.

Today, I wanted to go through some of my offseason favourites and where they find themselves in my rankings. There are players that I discussed extensively in my Ramblings all summer about whom I'm excited (or not) this coming season like Seth Jarvis, Mason Marchment, Tyler Toffoli, Carter Verhaeghe, and others. Let's not give away the whole show just yet and jump into it.

A reminder that we still haven't included rookies or goalies but that's coming likely next week.  

Seth Jarvis

There are some people predicting that Jarvis will end up on Sebastian Aho's line to start the year, especially with the injury to Max Pacioretty opening a top-6 winger spot. It is what I'm expecting as well but we'll see how the next week of camp goes.

I have spent much of the offseason gushing about Jarvis's rookie year (like his scoring chance contributions) and how it portends great things in his very near future. My projection for him is muted, though, as he comes in the 90^th-ranked winger by my Standings Gained Points metric. That is roster-able as a bench winger in medium-sized 12-team leagues, with his Yahoo! ADP sitting roughly as a 14^th-round pick, his Underdog Fantasy ADP between rounds 15 and 16, and his ESPN ADP closer to the 18^th-19^th round. Different formats value different things but it's clear no one expects him to be close to a top-100 player, and the 90^th winger off the board makes sense.

Here’s where things can change: I don't have him getting many prime power-play minutes. On an 82-game basis, I have him basically repeating last year's PPP total, with a big uptick in 5-on-5 production coming from at least four months skating on the top line. If Jarvis were to start, and stay, on the top man advantage unit for an extended period, he could find himself a top-40 winger and top-100 skater. If I'm gambling on a winger outside the first 12 rounds of a 12-team league, he's near the top of the list.

Mason Marchment

There are always concerns about a player who doesn't stand out for years and then has a breakout season at the age of 26. That compounds itself when the breakout season (54 games) is about two-thirds of a full season's game total. His entire career is about one season's worth of TOI for a second-line forward, and that's not a lot.

To be sure, Marchment had a good 2021-22 season by most any metric, it's a matter of continuing what he did in Florida over in Dallas. New Dallas coach Pete DeBoer, at least by HockeyViz metrics, has become more offensive-minded over the last couple seasons, and that's great news for Marchment and the rest of the Dallas fantasy options. The question is how lines shake out, though we should expect Marchment in the top-6 unless something goes terribly wrong.

For my ranking, he's just outside the top-100 wingers by overall value in this multi-cat format. The problem is two-fold: second-line minutes with a lack of power-play time. While an overall boost in TOI is expected, like Jarvis, a lack of power-play production keeps production muted, and somewhere in the 50-point range. There is also some regression expected as Florida shot nearly 16% with Marchment and Anton Lundell on the ice at 5-on-5, which is obscenely high and had a monstrous impact on his production. Marchment and Lundell were top-10 in the league in on-ice goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (per Natural Stat Trick) and unless Marchment is the next Johnny Gaudreau or Mikko Rantanen, that will come down a lot, and affect his production in kind.

If something were to happen that Marchment gets to the top power play, his fortunes change immensely. Until then, though, I'm not sure his role and pending regression will allow for another surprise fantasy season like last year.

Mike Matheson

As the resident Montreal fan, it pains me to say just how bad their blue line looks to be. It is another rebuilding year (despite what Joel Edmundson says) and that means nothing is locked in place. Both the coaching staff and management will want to see different players in different roles, particularly in the second half once the team is firmly out of the playoff race. My initial assumption is that Chris Wideman gets the crack at the top PP unit for the Habs but I don't expect that to last, with Matheson eventually taking over.

Projecting Matheson is unlike projecting a lot of defencemen. He has 49 career goals against 138 career points, which is a very high goals/points ratio for a blue liner (0.36). For reference, Victor Hedman has eight double-digit goal seasons in his last nine years (would be 9-for-9 if not for the shortened 2021 COVID campaign) and his goals/points ratio is 0.23. With a top power-play role (hopefully) coming, and much more ice time per game than he's had in his last three seasons, I have Matheson reaching the 40-point plateau for the first time ever, ranking just outside my top-50 defencemen. The rise in TOI also brings him to triple-digit hits and blocks, providing a well-rounded multi-cat option.

It is easy to see Matheson not reaching these heights. His career-high is 31 points, achieved last year, and Montreal is likely a bottom-5 team that has had a bad power play for a while now. But he's going virtually undrafted in all but the deepest leagues and he can be valuable across the board.

Tyler Toffoli

Where Toffoli is drafted might depend a lot on your league. He is going somewhere around the 9^th-10^th round on ESPN and Underdog but much later on Yahoo!. I suspect that the ESPN/Underdog ADP is much more realistic as he looks to be lining up with Jonathan Huberdeau on Calgary's top line, has a clear path to the top PP unit, and sharp fantasy owners will know this.

When it comes to Toffoli's fantasy value, his problem is similar to T.J. Oshie's in Washington over the last few seasons. First is that while top PP minutes could lead to a hefty goal total, he's not a focal point of the power play, and won't get a lot of touches. That could limit his power-play assists, and thus his overall PPP total. The second issue is a lack of overall assists. Toffoli has never hit 30 assists in a single season so even if he gets to 30 goals – which is my projection – him getting to 60 points is far from a lock. While Elias Lindholm and Jonathan Huberdeau can score, they're not elite goal scorers, so Toffoli hitting 30 assists is a high bar for him.

With a bit of luck, I do think Toffoli can get to 70 points, but I wouldn't draft him expecting that. He is coming in around my 130^th skater on the board, meaning an ADP in the 10^th round of a 12-team league has him un-draft-able. There's just no value left at that point.

Dougie Hamilton

Coming in as the 13^th defenceman on my board, I really do think Hamilton could have one of the wider ranges of drafting we see from a top-15 blue liner. He is just outside the top-20 by Yahoo! ADP, 17^th over on ESPN, and 13^th on Underdog. We could see him go inside the top-10 rearguards in some drafts and outside the top-20 in others. That means there's value to be had here.

It isn't as if we haven't seen him be great. His 2016-17 season in Calgary saw 13 goals, 50 points, 23 PPPs, 222 shots, and over 150 hits+blocks. That was with under 20 minutes a night, too. On Yahoo!, he was the number-1 defenceman in the shortened 2021 COVID season, his final year in Carolina. He was injured for much of 2021-22, even when he was playing, and his numbers suffered because of it.

New Jersey is one of the non-playoff teams from last year that I'm highest on. All of Hughes/Hischier/Bratt/Mercer a year older, signing Ondrej Palat, trading for John Marino, a likely Calder Trophy candidate in Alexander Holtz, and the deepest blue line they've had in some time. It all comes down to goaltending, but I think the offensive upside is there for Hamilton to get back over the 50-point mark with great peripherals. He has top-5 potential in multi-cat leagues and that's not often found outside the top-12 defencemen drafted.

Ok let's get through the next five guys a bit quicker.

Carter Verhaeghe

He has been lining up with Aleksander Barkov in the preseason, as expected. The big question is whether he can lock up a top power-play role with all the new roles/faces in Florida. I have him cracking the 60-point mark based on what he's done the last couple years alongside Barkov, but the power play could unlock a whole other level of value. Not only would it help him flirt with the 80-point mark but could get him close to the 200-shot mark, which is similarly important. He's not a great peripherals guy and needs production to make up the difference. How the power play shakes out will determine whether his ADP is justified or undervalued.

Evan Rodrigues

We got word that Gabriel Landeskog is injured, hasn't been skating, and will miss the start of the season. Rodrigues was already a potential top-6 candidate, but if Landeskog is out of the lineup, the former Penguin should have a second-line role at the very least until Avalanche captain returns. For that reason, I have him basically repeating his performance from 2021-22, with 18 goals and 41 points as his projection.

Things could go very right for him, though. He shot under 8% last year and even a modest increase could get him to 25 goals. He will be playing on a team with the best puck-moving blue line in hockey and that should help his scoring chance generation. But even an optimistic projection has him around 25 goals and 50 points, which isn't anything special in medium-sized fantasy leagues, but good peripherals could help a lot. He might not be a bad option to draft at the end of a draft and make use of him until Landeskog returns.

Ross Colton

Tampa Bay's line combinations – with Anthony Cirelli injured – had them stack the top line in camp. Whether it lasts, we'll see, but my hope had been that Colton could jump into a top-6 role for this team. With his potential for 20 goals, 50 points, two hits per game, and multi-position eligibility, Colton was a favourite of mine all offseason. The problem would be if they see him more in a third line scoring role than a top-6 role; we want him with Brayden Point or Steven Stamkos, not Vladislav Namestnikov. We'll keep an eye on training camp because it's a difference between 35-point and 50-point potential, which means either waiver wire fodder or late-round pick.

Jamie Drysdale

The addition of John Klingberg hurts a lot here. The former Stars blue liner should eat all the top PP time as long as he's healthy, and that shaved 10 points from Drysdale's projection. That affects multiple categories and drops him from potential bench defenceman in 12-team leagues to the waiver wire. Even if he hits 40 points, weak peripherals are an issue in multi-cat formats. His time will come eventually, but don't expect a huge leap in fantasy value in 2022-23.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

After the trade to Seattle, my hope was to see Bjorkstrand skating alongside Matty Beniers. The young Seattle centre impressed me at the end of the 2021-22 season and he's a prospect I've been very high on for a couple years. They've been skating together in the preseason and I think it's a great position for both of them. We should remember that Bjorkstrand played significant minutes with a few different centres last year and having one consistent option for him would be nice to see. His ADP is anywhere from the 12^th to 14^th round and I have him valued at about the same. If he can be a power play monster, he could wind up a top-100 player, but that's asking a lot for a team that's still growing. I have no issues with where he's being drafted, though.

*

We got some bad news out of Vancouver as it relates to Brock Boeser:

Vancouver Canucks F Brock Boeser underwent successful hand surgery. He will return in 3-4 weeks. Boeser hurt himself at practice on day three of Canucks Training Camp in Whistler, Saturday, September 24th.

— Canucks PR (@CanucksPR) September 26, 2022

It was just the start of camp when he said he was ready to score 30 goals. If he's going to miss the first couple weeks of the season, it puts that number in even more peril. It will be interesting to see who lines up with J.T. Miller and who gets the power-play role, too.

*

Despite some early training camp combinations, Toronto is back to something close to what we expected:

Marner back with Matthews and Bunting. Malgin alongside Tavares and Nylander #Leafs

— Terry Koshan 🇺🇦 (@koshtorontosun) September 26, 2022

Denis Malgin is an interesting name to watch. The team is looking for a second-line left winger and the player with the best camp could lock it down early.

*

For their preseason game on Monday, the Islanders ran with Mathew Barzal not playing as Oliver Wahlstrom's centre:

#Isles
Parise-Barzal-Holmstrom
Lee-Pageau-Wahlstrom
Johnston-Andreoff-Clutterbuck
Kubiak-Bardreau-Durandeau
Romanov-Dobson
Salo-Mayfield
Wotherspoon-Hutton
Varlamov
Skarek

At #NYR tonight at 7pm

— Andrew Gross (@AGrossNewsday) September 26, 2022

This is not what I had hoped to see from the Islanders in exhibition. There are more games to come, and it can change quickly, but it's not a great start.

*

With Nick Suzuki on the mend, Montreal sent out Owen Beck as Cole Caufield's centre for Monday night's exhibition game:

Ce soir face aux Devils

Caufield – Beck _ Hoffman
Pitlick- Dach – Slafkovsky
Harvey-Pinard – Mesar – Richard
Pezzetta – Mysak – Roy

Mattheson – Barron
Guhle – Harris
Fairbrother – Norlinder

Allen
Primeau

— Luc Gelinas (@LucGelinasRDS) September 26, 2022

Reports from camp have been glowing about Beck. He likely won't make the team as a full-time option this year, but it certainly bodes well for 2023 and beyond.

*

Teams are going to try different combinations in training camps and Chicago is no different:

Andreas Athanasiou is skating on a line with Patrick Kane and Max Domi today.

Taylor Raddysh is with Jonathan Toews and Tyler Johnson. #Blackhawks

— Charlie Roumeliotis (@CRoumeliotis) September 26, 2022

Some of us had hopes of Lukas Reichel cracking the roster and skating with Patrick Kane. It may still happen, but this is something to watch closely as training camp persists.  

*

My concerns for Patrice Bergeron's fantasy value were if Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak skated with David Krejci, leaving a Brad Marchand-less Bergeron to skate without any of the team's top-3 wingers for a month or two. Well…

Prax lines:

Zacha-Bergeron-DeBrusk
Frederic-Coyle-Smith
Wagner-Studnicka-Lysell
Merkulov/Toporowski-Asselin-Brazeau

Lindholm-Stralman
Zboril-Carlo
Forbort-Wissman
Wolff-Berglund

Swayman
Keyser
Bussi

— Fluto Shinzawa (@FlutoShinzawa) September 26, 2022

It's not great, Bob.

*

Andrew Mangiapane was back at camp for the Flames and had an interesting line combination:

👀 Mangiapane-Kadri-Phillips pic.twitter.com/xi1MR7Ci8Z

— Derek Wills (@Fan960Wills) September 26, 2022

Calgary probably needs one of their top prospect forwards to make an impact this year to really be a contender and though Matthew Phillips is older at 24 years old, him making the team could be big for them. We'll see how this progresses over the next couple weeks.

*

An interesting wrinkle for Dallas's goaltending and salary cap situations:

Pete DeBoer said Anton Khudobin will start and play one period. Jake Oettinger will play the final two periods. With Khudobin's recovery, it's easier to have him start versus come in for the second period, DeBoer said.

— Matthew DeFranks (@MDeFranks) September 26, 2022

There was some thought in the offseason that Anton Khudobin would head to long-term injured reserve, freeing up cap space for Dallas. It would be very valuable cap space, as the team has $6.3M until the cap with Jason Robertson yet to sign. He will assuredly command more than that so how this shakes out is very uncertain.

*

Over the summer I wrote about how Reilly Smith had a strong season contributing to Vegas's scoring chances but the team just couldn't finish off scoring plays. He has been skating on what would be the team's top line all camp, though, and that persisted Monday:

Lines and pairs at morning skate:

Smith-Eichel-Kessel
Marchessault-Karlsson-Brisson
Quinney-Manninen-Rempal
Primeau-Ford-Guay

Chayka-Pietrangelo
McNabb-Theodore
Korczak-Ahac

Chayka rotating with Korczak and Pietrangelo, so perhaps Martinez goes in.

Hill/Thompson

— Danny Webster (@DannyWebster21) September 26, 2022

That is a very intriguing line combination to me.