The NHL season starts this weekend with the Sharks and Predators in Prague for a pair of regular season games. It is crunch time for drafting and for anyone that has left their prep until the last minute, picking up a copy of the 2022-23 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is a great way to get all the information you need. There are projections, depth charts, lineup combinations, long-term outlooks, prospect discussions, and a slew of articles. It will be updated until the season starts so go get what you need to get a leg up on your competition!

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With the season around the corner, it's time for some predictions. As usual, we will have our Dobber Panel Prediction column coming soon, which gets the temperature from all the Dobber editors and writers. We discuss our award winners, division winners, Cup winners, and more.

Personal predictions are another matter. In the spirit of generating some discussion, we are going to skip the milquetoast selections and go with some spice. Let's go over 10 hot takes for the upcoming season, ranging from skaters to goalies to teams to awards. Let's get some Scotch Bonnets in our meal and bring the temperature up to 600° F.

Troy Terry Scores 50 Goals

There have been numerous articles from both myself and the writers across the Dobber team about Terry's breakout 2021-22 season. He scored 37 goals in 75 games, more than doubling his career output to that point (15) in 54 fewer contests. The trepidation is normal but I wrote back in June why I believe Terry's explosion is, in a couple words, for real. He had excellent underlying stats before the 2021-22 season, and everything finally came together. However, getting to 37 goals ins one thing and cracking 50 is another entirely.

Terry shot nearly 20% last year and assuredly he won't shoot that again. But how he got to 19.3% shooting is a story in itself. He shot a whopping 32% on the power play, scoring eight times on 25 shots. That was fourth in the NHL among regular PP forwards. That is our outline for how he can add a lot of goals: his 5-on-5 shooting percentage was high (15.4%) but in a higher-scoring NHL environment, that wasn't even 90^th percentile. That is repeatable and if he can see another increase in shot rate, he can add a lot of even strength goals. The power play percentage will come down but with a (hopefully) more consistent top PP role on an improved roster, he could even add to his eight PPGs despite a decline in shooting percentage. This is the year he cements himself as a high-end goal scorer in the league.

New Jersey Wins The Metro

It is really hard to look at the 2021-22 Devils and draw significant, over-arching conclusions about the direction of the team. Jack Hughes missed over 30 games, Dougie Hamilton missed 20 tilts (and was playing hurt for many of his remaining 62 appearances), while the goaltending tandem of MacKenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier started just 32 games. That means the team had 50 starts from their non-NHL goalies. Here is something fun, though: they still scored just six fewer goals than Boston.

When Hughes was in the lineup – late November until early April – the Devils were 15^th in the league in expected goal share (per Natural Stat Trick), ahead of playoff teams like Washington, the Rangers, and St. Louis. What sunk them was relying game in and game out on AHL goaltending, and perhaps a blue line that wasn't very deep that had Hamilton injured. Well, the goalies are healthy, so is Hamilton, they added Jonas Siegenthaler at the deadline, and acquired John Marino in the offseason. Throw in the signing of Ondrej Palat and the (hopeful) emergence of rookie Alexander Holtz, and this is a completely different team.

My belief is the Devils have two excellent scoring lines, good forward depth, a much-improved defence, and healthy goaltending. They are not the favourites in their division, not by a long shot, but if everything breaks right for them, there is a lot to like.  

Igor Shesterkin Wins The Hart Trophy

This might be a bit more muted as far as hot takes go, but I was looking at Hart Trophy winners going back decades, and goalies are a bit of a rarity. Since the expansion in 1967, three goalies have won the league's MVP: Dominik Hasek (x2), José Theodore, and Carey Price. The latter two are the only ones to do it this millennium. We've been getting basically one goalie per decade win it but if there's one guy who can do it, it surely is King Igor.

(And for anyone picking Cale Makar or Roman Josi to win the Hart, only one blue liner – Chris Pronger in 2000 – has won it in the last 50 years. It's an uphill climb for rearguards.)

One big roadblock with Shesterkin winning this trophy is just the depth of elite talent in the NHL. If this was 6-7 years ago when guys like McDavid and Matthews were just starting their careers, it'd be one thing. But if they're healthy, the Rangers goalie has to contend with 125-point and 60-goal forwards. It's not the same league as when Taylor Hall won it posting 93 points.

With all that said, Igor is the best goalie on the planet, will get a lot of starts, and if he repeats his performance last year, he'll be in the Hart mix again. Can we get a coronation at the awards show, please?  

Jack Eichel Reaches 100 Points

How hot this take is might depend on the person. A lot of people believe in Eichel rebounding from last year, which makes sense given his limited games played and meagre (for him) production. On top of everything, his 82-game pace for PPPs was just 19, which is very off for him, considering he averaged 27 every 82 games in his five full Buffalo seasons. But rebounding from 0.74 points per game in 2021-22 to roughly 1.22 points per game in 2022-23 would represent a massive turnaround.

A lot depends on health, and not only his own. He likely needs Mark Stone to play 75 games, if not for even-strength scoring, but to add a necessary dimension on the power play. The addition of Phil Kessel is likely going overlooked, too. He's not the player he was 4-5 years ago, but he's still good in transition and finding teammates. That playmaking dimension is something this team, and Eichel, needs.

I am assuming Eichel is easily over 20 minutes a game this year with expected rebounds in a number of offensive categories. There is a lot of variance in how his season finishes but a bit of good fortune could see him set a career-high in points by a wide margin.

Seattle Is A Playoff Team

Last year was how most expansion seasons are supposed to go for teams, but it's not to say Seattle was outright bad. They were actually good defensively, keeping the middle of the ice clean for their goaltenders (from HockeyViz):

The problem was a lack of forward depth and awful goaltending. The team had one player reach 50 points (Jared McCann) and one player score more than 21 goals (also McCann). Being unable to score and also posting a league-worst save percentage is a bad mix, it appears.

Seattle is a much different roster this year, though. Matty Beniers had a good showing at the end of the season and brings a much-needed dual threat centre. They traded for Oliver Bjorkstrand and signed Andre Burakovsky. With McCann, Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, and Yanni Gourde, the team now has the pieces for two good scoring lines, even if someone's injured. Add in Shane Wright to go with middle-6 options like Alex Wennberg, Joonas Donskoi, and Brandon Tanev, this team is now three lines deep. Maybe not any line being elite, but all being good, and that matters.

Philipp Grubauer will be the difference. If he can regain form from prior to 2021-22, this is a whole different team. Good defence, much-improved offence, and radical progress from the net could see this team sneak in the wild card.

Quinn Hughes Is A Top-5 Fantasy Defenceman

Peripherals are what keep Hughes from ever being truly elite in multi-cat fantasy leagues. The blue liner has never managed two shots per game for a season, and he has a grand total of 136 hits+blocks in his last 132 games. In that regard, it's just not enough to make him a truly top-end option. It is an open question whether his hits and blocks ever get up to snuff to make him an across-the-board fantasy performer.

To that end, he needs to pick up the shooting. A lot. And there have been offseason reports about both he and the team wanting him to add that dimension. It is something the top-end blue line producers like Roman Josi and Cale Makar do. Even Victor Hedman, who shoots less than those two, has averaged over 2.5 shots per game spanning his last three seasons. If Hughes can post 200 shots, his goal scoring will climb, his point totals should increase, and that will push him to another level in the fantasy game.

Quinn Hughes has zero PP goals in the last two seasons. He also has never scored more than eight goals. If these things climb, we could see an 80-point season for him, and have him among the next-to-elite of fantasy defencemen.

Dylan Larkin Goes 40-50

Even in a higher-scoring league, there were just six players to reach the 40-goal, 50-assist marks last season. There were the two ex-Calgary wingers, Edmonton's dynamic centre duo, Kirill Kaprizov, and Steven Stamkos. That's it. It is a lot to expect of anyone but I think Larkin finally has the team around him to do it.  

It isn't as if it's an outlandish idea as far as assists go. He posted 47 assists back in 2017-18, followed that up with 41 assists in 2018-19, and his 82-game pace last year for 44 assists. That is with never posting a season with at least 10 PP helpers. With Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond a year older and a deeper offensive team, there is more help and less pressure on Larkin to be a superstar. That seems like a great condition for him to be a superstar.

Last year his 82-game goal pace was for 36 tallies. That was with rookies being relied upon heavily and Tyler Bertuzzi missing 14 games of his own. With a full roster and growth from the kids, this could be the year Larkin explodes offensively.

Andrei Svechnikov Is A Top-10 Multi-Cat Fantasy Skater

This has been the hope of a lot of us for a while, right? Once he posted a 24-37 season in 68 games, posting 116 hits, many of us had fantasy superstardom pegged for Svechnikov. While he's certainly been a very good option, he hasn't yet hit that next level we hope he can reach.

One big problem is ice time. Carolina likes to spread things out: no Carolina forward played 19 minutes a game in 2021-22 while Sebastian Aho was the only player over 18 minutes. This is just my feeling – based on maybe just a lot of hope – but I think that changes this year. The team lost very good depth in Vincent Trocheck and Nino Niederreiter while the guy brought in to replace some scoring (Max Pacioretty) is out until 2023. My thinking is this team will have to rely on its stars more this year, and that means more ice time for guys like Svechnikov.

For the young Russian to be a top-10 fantasy skater, he needs something like a 40-40 season with 25 PPPs, 275 shots, and 180 hits. I think it's doable if he does get that TOI increase. We will find out.

Tyler Toffoli Reaches 80 Points

Speaking of players I think can post 40-40 seasons, I present Calgary's top right winger. Throughout camp, he's often been seen on the top line and top PP unit. If he can move into the 17-18 minute range will getting all those prime offensive minutes, well, the mind wanders.

Even when considering his brief tenure in Vancouver, Toffoli has never had a playmaker like Jonathan Huberdeau on his line (few players have, really). Having a world-class passer feeding Toffoli all year long, at all strengths, has me wondering if we don't see him smash his previous career-high of 31 goals.

The issue of assists is obvious, having never had more than 27 in a season. But with all the top minutes coming his way, even if he's not lining up with elite goal scorers, a career-high in assists seems plausible as well. A wrench could be thrown in if he's demoted from either the top line or top PP unit, but that's why this is a hot take. I think we see Toffoli have a career year.

Adam Fox Reaches 90 Points

This could depend on what people think of Fox, especially where he's coming off a 74-point season. Adding 16 points might not seem like a huge jump, but Roman Josi's 2021-22 season is the only time since the 2005 lockout that a defenceman has posted at least 90 points. Fox reaching that level would be, more or less, historic.

Where my belief comes from is the emergence of the Kid Line. When Fox was on the ice last year at 5-on-5 without one of Mika Zibanejad or Artemi Panarin (i.e. the top two lines), the team scored 2.0 goals per 60 minutes. It's not awful, but it can be better, and I believe it will be this year. Filip Chytil is burgeoning offensively while Alexis Lafrenière seems to have found his scoring touch. The Rangers having another good scoring line should mean more points for Fox at even strength.

On top of that, the Norris contender did not score on the power play in 2021-22. Adding a few man-advantage goals, on top of a productive Kid Line, could give him the boost he needs to get to 90 points.

Alright, those are my hot takes for the year. There is sure to be disagreement, but I think the reasoning is solid. Let us know in the comments.

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Cam York has been sent down to the AHL:

Cam York is among #Flyers' cuts.

— Sam Carchidi (@BroadStBull) October 5, 2022

This is a wild turn of events. To my eyes, he had a good audition last year with the Flyers, especially considering the poor quality of the team. The addition of Tony DeAngelo would keep York from the top PP unit, but I thought he seemed primed for a full season of third-pair, second PP duties. It appears John Tortorella has other ideas.

Of course, this is not a death knell for York's career or anything. We saw Cole Caufield go through this just last year. But it is a death knell for any fantasy value we had hoped he could have.

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It is worth mentioning that Andrei Kuzmenko continues to skate alongside Elias Pettersson both at 5-on-5 and on the power play:

PP units

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Kuzmenko
Miller-Horvat-Pettersson
Hughes

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Podkolzin
Garland-Pearson-Höglander
OEL#Canucks @Sportsnet650

— Brendan Batchelor (@BatchHockey) October 5, 2022

Brock Boeser is skating and shouldn't be out a lot longer, but I do wonder if Kuzmenko could eventually supplant someone on the top PP unit? Maybe Bo Horvat? It seems like a stretch but he could force the hand of the coaching staff. Something to monitor, at any rate.

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Brayden Schenn lined up as the 3C in a full-ish Blues practice:

Here's how #stlblues running lines today:

Saad-O'Reilly-Kyrou
Buchnevich-Thomas-Leivo
Neighbours-Schenn-Walker
Highmore-Acciari-Kostin

Krug-Faulk
Leddy-Parayko
Mikkola-Bortuzzo
Rosen

Binnington
Greiss

* No Tarasenko, Barbashev, Brown, Toropchenko among forwards

— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) October 5, 2022

He had some third-line duties last year but the offensive group has thinned out a bit and there should be concerns about his fantasy value. His power-play role isn't in doubt, and that helps a lot, but his raw points upside is worrisome.