Ramblings: Top 15 Interesting Players on Waivers, thoughts on Staal, Kostin, ZAR, Vesey and more … (Oct. 10)

Dobber

2022-10-10

The last update for the Fantasy Guide was Sunday. Seven times. And I'll keep updating until Wednesday morning. Then I'll call it. After that, refer to our Frozen Tools player profiles for game logs, 'on pace' stats, links to articles they are mentioned in, rankings (all of our rankings) advanced stats and more.

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Lots of minor paperwork being done throughout the NHL over the weekend that will cause (and has caused) pretty big waves in fantasy hockey.

Minor Trade

In a swap of promising prospects who were drafted fairly high but haven't yet panned out – the Blues traded forward Klim Kostin to Edmonton for Dmitri Samorukov. Both had already cleared waivers. The Blues get a left-shot offensive defenseman who was drafted in the third round in 2017. His transition to the AHL has been mediocre at best. I doubt we see much NHL action out of him, other than a couple of cups of coffee. Kostin, on the other hand, is a 6-3, 215-pound forward. And what do I say about big forwards like that? He needs time. He was drafted 31st overall in the same draft. The big players are often put on waivers because at the age they lose waivers exemption they aren't ready yet. If the Oilers can develop him properly in the AHL, or even loan him to the KHL for two years and bring him in when he's ready – this could pan out. A strong middle-six winger could come in handy in 2024-25. It's a long shot, but a long shot is better than a no shot.

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Waiver Claim

I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw that the Flames placed Juuso Valimaki on waivers. A 16th overall pick who has seen his development severely stunted because of poorly-timed injuries, Valimaki is a 21-year-old in a 24-year-old's body. That's how I see this guy (he turned 24 last week, actually). He has missed so much time during key development years that he isn't as far along as he should be. And unlike some players who just play so poorly that they get casted off (Olli Juolevi), there are some players who just had bad luck. On a team like Arizona, who need all the high-end upside they can get, this is a great fit. The Coyotes claimed him on Sunday. And although he's a left shot and so is Jakob Chychrun and Shayne Gostisbehere – I think Chychrun gets traded within the next month, and I think 'Ghost' gets moved by the deadline. In the meantime, I'd like to see Valimaki just stay healthy and get 17 minutes per game of ice time and second-unit PP time. If so, he can still salvage a career that meets his potential.

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Placed On Waivers

Wow. As always, the waivers list at this time of year is chalk full of interesting names. Sunday was the final day to waive a player if a team wants to send them down in time to finalize their rosters under the cap. Here are the most interesting names, in 'my' order:

15. Adam Gaudette, Toronto – Not too surprising, as he was relegated to depth status with Ottawa last year. It was pretty clear at this point that Denis Malgin has won a spot with the big club – and well deserved. If he can ever get sustained top-six opportunity with this deep team, Malgin can and will surprise.

14. Josh Leivo, St. Louis – Leivo is another example of a player who has had injuries hurt his development. He had a great camp and I actually thought he might have won a spot. But in the end the team feels that Jake Neighbours is ready.

13. Will Butcher, Dallas – Yes, Butcher has been a fringe NHL player for some time now, but he actually got four points in five preseason games including three on the power play. I thought it was enough to earn a spot.

12. Philippe Myers, Tampa Bay – The Lightning turned Luke Schenn into a decent defenseman by bringing him along carefully within a talented lineup. I thought they would do the same with Myers. To be fair, I think the team is just pushing him through waivers for cap reasons and once that is all resolved he will break the season with the big club.

11. Jansen Harkins, Winnipeg – Lauded for his hustle and effort just two years ago, Harkins just couldn't find a way to hang onto a bottom-six spot. The team likes what they see in Morgan Barron, and Sam Gagner is proving to be a solid PP specialist as advertised. Harkins will probably be up and down several times this year.

10. Aleksi Heponiemi, Florida – The 23-year-old was the 40th overall draft pick in 2017 and has finally settled in as an AHLer. It was thought that the Panthers would keep him up due to his change in waivers eligibility, but apparently not. He had a very good training camp and has probably made the team as a depth player, but due to cap reasons the Panthers had to risk losing him. The rumor is they want to clear enough cap space to sign Eric Staal (more on that below).

9. Chris Tierney, Florida – Tierney has slowly faded down NHL depth charts, and now he's finally faded right off them altogether. A two-way forward who at one time I had figured had 60-point upside, now finds himself likely going to the AHL when he should be in his prime at 28.

8. Henrik Borgstrom, Washington – Still only 25, Borgstrom has yet to translate his college and Swedish League success to the NHL. But we shouldn't be too surprised, as he couldn't get regular duty in Chicago's lineup last year. This move indicates that Joe Snively and Alexei Protas have made the team. Snively has intriguing upside, but we'll never see it unless he can sneak into the top six via an injury to Anthony Mantha or TJ Oshie (I say those two because they tend to get hurt).

7. Wayne Simmonds, Toronto – On one hand, Simmonds should have been waived three years ago. On the other hand – the Leafs keep signing him and keep playing him. So I thought that would never end. But apparently it finally has. Simmonds is finally off the roster, which means Nicholas Robertson has finally made the squad. The talent level on this team just spiked.

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6. Josh Mahura, Anaheim – A prospect with tremendous promise and upside, Mahura is just taking too long at the pro level. Last season was the first time he showed any signs of being a potential PP quarterback. But he needed to reach that level at the age of 22, not 24 (his age now). He didn't win a spot with the Ducks, but perhaps a team will claim him. I thought the Ducks would work with him and bring him along slowly, since he played 38 games last year with 24 of them in the second half. Perhaps they still will do that. Sometimes teams just run a player through waivers so they don't have to worry about doing it a couple of weeks later.

5. Mike Reilly, Boston – After posting 27 points (all assists) in 55 games, Reilly slipped to 17 in 70 last year, which was the first on his three-year contract at $3M AAV. His xG% last year of 57.7% is one of the better ones I've seen and his possession metrics also looked solid, though he was just a little sheltered. However, the Bruins obviously feel that his AAV isn't worth the value added and perhaps are hoping for a team to take that contract off their hands. I doubt that a team will do that.

4. Mason Shaw, Minnesota – This kid has gone through hell and back, fighting through injury after injury in key development years. And when it was all said and done, he was fantastic for Iowa last year in an agitator role with 52 points in 106 PIM in just 62 games. He looked great with the Wild too, posting six hits and seven SOG in just 27 minutes of action over three games. He had three points and 12 Hits in four exhibition games. But he was beat out by Connor Dewar and Marco Rossi. A team in need of a promising agitator could do worse than giving this guy a shot.

3. Emil Bemstrom, Columbus – A pretty good goal scorer in Sweden, the 23-year-old has yet to make his mark in North America. He's had 117 games in the NHL at this point and just 19 goals to show for it – at a rate that seems to be dropping with each passing month. He needs to show something at the AHL this season and earn that call-up or risk the 'bust' label.

2. Nick Foligno, Boston – Last season the signs were there. Foligno averaged 15 minutes per game in the first quarter, followed by 13:33 in the second, 11:46 in the third and in the final 19 games he averaged 10:56. His playoffs? He averaged just 9:59. As steady a decline as you'll see. He turned 35 in a couple of weeks.

1. Connor Ingram, Nashville – Surprised at this. Not just because I think he's a very good prospect goaltender who is now hitting the age where you can start to have NHL expectations (he's 25), but also because I really don't think highly of Kevin Lankinen. And I say this after Lankinen had a pretty good game on the weekend over in Europe. Take away his first seven or eight games in the NHL, and his numbers at that level have been horrific. But Nashville would rather risk losing a quality prospect for nothing? I mean, Arizona recently claimed Jonas Johansson, and Ingram is twice the goalie he is. The Blackhawks need to take a serious look here.

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Signings (or Soon to be Signed)

Zach Aston-Reese, Toronto – I think he'll be a pretty good depth add in multi-category leagues. ZAR gets injured a lot, but if he can play even 70 games I think he brings over 200 Hits and 20 points to the table. He has the grit the Leafs need and to me that made Simmonds even more expendable.

Jimmy Vesey, NY Rangers – Vesey never did reach his potential. Nor come anywhere close to it. Remember, fans of teams like the Sabres took out billboards in their city trying to woo Vesey to sign with them. But for the second straight year he has signed a contract after a PTO. The Rangers keep trying him in their top six so his production may be inflated early on.

Anton Stralman, Boston – Stralman offers veteran depth and he's probably a key reason why the Bruins waived Reilly. Stralman, of course, has no fantasy value.

Eric Staal, Florida – Staal is a former star in this league but he turns 38 in a couple of weeks and took all of last season off. But the last time we wrote him off he dedicated himself to a seriously rigorous offseason workout regiment and revised his career with the Wild. He jumped from 39 points up to 65 and then 76. Did he do that again over the past year? He'll be buried on this Florida team, but he should be more effective than Joe Thornton was last season.

Derick Brassard, Ottawa – A veteran of 951 regular season games, it appears as though Brassard has earned that contract and should sign it today. Last year he started off on the second line with the Flyers and notched 11 points in his first 17 games. Something like that with the Sens is certainly possible again, but don't expect that production to be sustained no matter how strong a start he has.

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The Sharks sent both William Eklund and Thomas Bordeleau to the minors. Each of those two needed to be in the top six or the team didn't want to waste time keeping them – which is how it should be. I wish more teams thought that way. For now, Luke Kunin is playing on the top line. If that experiment ends and he goes back to the third line, look for one of those two prospects to get called up and get inserted right in there.

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Good luck this season! Thank you very much for your support in buying the Guides and keeping these websites running.

See you next Monday.

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2022-10-10 at 10:32

    Arz may be awful, they will be better this season by standings points but still be 1 of the worst teams in the league but who sits so Valamaki can play until these 2 trades you have taking place occur?

    Gositisbehere, Mayo
    Chychurn, Stetcher
    Nemeth, Timmins

    Ironically Timmins has had the same path as Valamaki, constant injuries, although I believe Timmins are concussion-related so far more concerning that still leaves Moser although he can clear waivers, Dineen, Brown, and 2 other decent to solid D prospects have already been sent down respectively in Kolyachonok and Soderstrom.

    I assume when Chychurn is moved 1 of the assets returning will be a young waiver-exempt Dman that is not quite NHL-ready but close. Arz’s future D is crowded but well worth the risk as to early to write off and never mind the injuries Covid has significantly impacted player development as it is.

    The 2 teams we have heard constant rumors about for Chychurn are Edm and Ott. The names banded about include Broberg, Thompson & JDB. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another team we haven’t really heard much from recently slide in and secure Chychurn well these 2 decline to meet the asking price.

    • Dobber 2022-10-10 at 15:47

      I see you didn’t grab my guide this year? I have Timmins missing 30 games with injury (and that’s optimistic!), Nemeth missing 20 for the same reason, Mayo missing 18, Stecher missing 22. Chychrun is a lock to miss over a dozen, that guy is Band-Aid Boy King. I even have Moser playing 60 games and Dineen/Kolyachonok getting looks. The defense corps in Arizona is keeping the medical system in business (and Valimaki will only help in that area too). There will be plenty of games to go around.

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