Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. The season is well underway now. We have fanbases panicking, parades being planned across half of the continent, and a whole bunch of news to cover.

Meanwhile, on a fantasy level: Roto leaguers are just starting to get a sense of what categories they may need to patch up and which they have some excess in, while in points-only leagues, it’s still way too early to really react too much. Keeping a level head early on is tough, but it will pay off in the long run.

If season-long leagues aren’t your thing, then there’s always some DFS options to try your hand at. If you need some help getting started, there’s a tool for that, and you can find it here. (oct19)

2. The easiest place to start overreacting to is goaltending and this year is no different. That said, the only name goalie that I am not giving any attention is John Gibson. The team in front of his is not a defensive one, and from last season they have replaced the reliable Josh Manson with the offensively gifted John Klingberg. In other words, they may score a lot of goals as a team, but that will balance with a lot more opportunities against. That doesn’t bode well for Gibson who has struggled more and more often the last few seasons, tailing off earlier and earlier into the year. Typically he starts the year well though, but with a slow start now, I don’t have a lot of confidence in any kind of turn-around. (oct19)

3. I made one in a dynasty cap league yesterday, sending out Thomas Chabot in exchange for Tyler Bertuzzi. I’m not very worried about making the playoff this year (I’m fairly confident I will make it) and so jumping at the chance to get Bertuzzi made sense. I had defensemen to spare, and getting another 70-point forward was something I was having trouble finding otherwise in the trade market in that league. Check in on those injured players like Matt Murray, Bertuzzi, Patrik Laine, Nick Schmaltz, etc. It can be a good way to kick a stone loose. (oct19)

4. As a result of both Aaron Ekblad‘s injury and Mackenzie Weegar‘s departure, both Brandon Montour and Gustav Forsling are seeing a sizable increase in value. Returning from a two-game absence, Montour recorded two assists. Forsling has five points over his last four games and has played at least 22 minutes in each of his five games. They’re also Florida’s first defense pair at the moment, so they should continue to log major minutes for the next little while. Montour is the one less likely to be rostered in your league (just 20% Yahoo/49% Fantrax) compared to Forsling (69% Yahoo/83% Fantrax). Combine that with the fact that Montour is receiving more power-play minutes than Forsling and the decision of which one to pick from your waiver wire should be made easier. Florida appeared to run a five-forward first-unit power play, as they have done at times in the past. (oct22)

5. Dominik Kubalik was one of those players that the Blackhawks parted ways with in the offseason. Facing his former team on Friday, Kubalik scored a goal and added an assist while taking four shots. He’s off to a fast start with the Red Wings, scoring five points over his last three games. He was a 30-goal scorer (in just 68 games) just three seasons ago, and he’s seeing even-strength time with Dylan Larkin and David Perron. That's a good thing because he's a linemate-dependent player, with that 30-goal season coming while alongside a more productive version of Jonathan Toews. He’s also playing in his fourth season, and he's widely available in fantasy leagues (14% Yahoo/32% Fantrax). (oct22)

6. Eric Staal is officially back for one more season. Following a professional tryout, the Panthers have signed Staal to a one-year contract worth $750,000. He wasn’t in the lineup for Friday’s game against Tampa Bay, but he should make his season debut on Sunday. Staal last played in the NHL in 2020-21, when he split time between the Sabres and Canadiens. Although he has built up a solid Hall of Fame argument, Staal shouldn’t be on anyone’s fantasy radar at this stage of his career. (oct22)

7. The Jets have placed Nikolaj Ehlers on IR with an undisclosed injury (or at least I couldn’t find it anywhere). Ehlers has missed a total of 29 games over the past two seasons, so he might be on the verge of Band-Aid Boy territory. As a result of the injury, Mason Appleton has been elevated to a scoring line with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, so he might be one to watch for some short-term value. (oct22)

8. Looking to maximize your head-to-head results at the end of your week? Look no further than the Frozen Tools Schedule Planner. Then set the date range to Custom Date Range, and enter the dates from Saturday to Sunday. Four teams play on both Saturday and Sunday, while every other team plays once. I’ll focus on potential waiver-wire pickups for those four teams playing twice. (oct22)

9. Most forwards typically land anywhere from 55-65% of the shots that they take. That is the ratio between shot attempts and shots on goal. Last year, roughly three-quarters of all regular forwards fell in this range and just 9 of 402 forwards in the sample were under 50%. No one was below 47%. In other words, if any player goes through a small stretch where they’re landing under 50% of the shots they take on goal, that probably won’t last very long.

As of last Thursday, Michael Bunting had 23 shots attempts but just seven of those have hit the net. That low hit rate of 30% is clearly something that will not persist, and if he were in a normal 60% range, he would have 14 shots in four games, a very stout total.

Things will be a lot better once he starts naturally hitting the net a lot more. The only question is if he stays where he is given the Leafs’ sluggish start to the year. As long as he’s skating with Auston Matthews, check the waiver wire to see if he’s been dropped yet. He very easily could see a big upturn coming in very short order. (oct21)

10. It seems there are a lot of young, promising players are not doing well right now. Alexander Holtz was scratched last Thursday night, Arthur Kaliyev has been up to the third line but playing 10 minutes a night, Connor McMichael needed several injuries to crack the lineup, Jack Quinn has been scratched, and so on. It’s a reminder how hard it is to play heavy minutes consistently in this league and how rare it is for most young players to stand out early. (oct21)

11. The player with the most shots on goal without scoring (as of Wednesday afternoon) was San Jose’s top winger Timo Meier. He had 21 shots on goal with registering a tally yet, a worrying start for his fantasy owners (especially since he's now 0-2-2 after seven outings).

One problem with Meier’s scoring over his career is an inability to convert at a high rate. He averaged 10.5% from 2017-22, a span of 360 games. Of the 14 forwards that landed at least 11 shots per 60 minutes in those five seasons, Meier is 11^th in shooting percentage, and tied for 11^th in goals per 60 minutes as a result. That kept his goal scoring relatively modest until 2021-22 when a huge ice time jump helped him set a career-high with 35 goals. (oct20)

It's his last season that is instructive here. Meier had three different stretches where he landed more than 21 shots on goal without scoring: early December where he landed 29 in seven games without a goal, late January-early February where he landed 24 in six games while failing to register a marker, and early April when he posted 25 shots in five games without scoring. He still finished the season as one of the top fantasy skaters. It would be a concern if he weren’t shooting, but he’s still top-20 in the league in shot rate. Those with the Swiss flank on their roster need patience, and perhaps others can buy low on him. (oct20)

12. My big offseason concern with Vancouver was their determination to run a three-center lineup with Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller, and Elias Pettersson on different lines. It could have left them spreading out their wingers a bit too thin and would make Andrei Kuzmenko someone they’d need to find success. On Thursday, he had 12 shots in four games, with a pair of points, so he was off to a fine start.

What is more important to note here is he was seventh among 182 forwards with at least 50 minutes played in expected goals generated per 60 minutes (2.25). He had scored just once though, giving him the second-lowest goal-scoring rate of anyone in the top-10, with only T.J. Oshie faring worse.

The test here for fantasy players is that we don’t have a track record from the 26-year-old Russian. It is his first season in the NHL and transferring goal scoring from the KHL to the NHL isn’t always a straight line (ask Vadim Shipachyov or Dmitrij Jaskin, though injuries were a big factor for the latter). But the concern would be if Kuzmenko weren’t shooting or getting to good areas for his shots. Neither is true, and HockeyViz showed us where he’s been shooting from. There are a couple from distance, but most are in the slot or in tight.

There are mitigating circumstances that could suppress his offense, as he’s not earning a lot of ice time and the spectre of Brock Boeser supplanting him on the power play looms. Playing 14-15 minutes a night and being bumped off the PP could crush his fantasy value, but it won’t be because he’s not generating offense. He is doing that, and we have to monitor whether he keeps it up. (oct20)

13. There are any number of reasons for a player to go in this direction and there is no need to speculate. All the best to Jakub Vrana and whatever he's dealing with. 

14. Hockey fans across the league had been wondering what’s up with Gabriel Landeskog and we got some clarity on Wednesday: arthroscopic surgery on his knee yesterday and will miss 12 weeks. This clarifies things for the Avs and as long as they keep up their current level of play, it’s much more important for Landeskog to be healthy five months from now than it is in November. The team also moved Valeri Nichushkin to the top line. I've been saying all offseason that Mikko Rantanen would likely end up the 2C at some point. He’s not there yet, but it does seem to be very plausible very soon. (oct20)

15. Flyers' Scott Laughton is having a decent start in his own right. Two goals through five games, mostly playing left wing on the top line with Kevin Hayes and Travis Konecny. He has some upside for 50-points, and excellent peripheral production, he just needs this top-line gig to stick. He’s making the best of it so far. (oct19)

16. Though Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko haven’t been playing together this season, they are all standing out individually. Of the three, Kakko that has been the revelation for me. He seemed to play well in his own end last year but just could not generate a lot offensively. That has not been the case this season as he’s been a standout on the top line alongside Mika Zibanejad. It seems every game the Rangers play, Kakko makes a play that makes you sit up in your seat in wonder. His confidence with the puck seems to have grown by leaps and bounds and it’s nice to see the 2^nd overall pick from 2019 look like he’s starting to find his game in the NHL.

These three players are the crux of the Rangers’ upside as a team. They need these guys to fulfill their potential and between growth last year and hopefully breaking out this year, all three are really bringing the depth this team needs outside its veteran stars. (oct18)

17. One area the Ducks needed help with was finding puck-moving defensemen, and preferably one that could run a power play. John Klingberg was brought in for those reasons and the returns have been promising early. For example, through the team's first two games, the Ducks generated over 52 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice time at 5-on-5 with the former Stars blueliner on the ice. That is way too high to be sustainable, but it shows that he’s doing what he was brought in to do. The defense remains questionable though he wasn’t brought into be a stalwart in his own end. How good Anaheim will be defensively is very much in question, but Klingberg’s offensive impact is being felt and hopefully it’s just the start of more good things to come.

18. All the lineup changes meant a brand-new second line for Calgary of Dillon Dube, Nazem Kadri, and Andrew Mangiapane. My hope was that the dual-threat nature of both Kadri and Mangiapane would find instant chemistry with each other, and Dubé would be the beneficiary from the increased ice time and line mate quality. So far, so good: they have looked excellent as a second scoring trio for the Flames.

Calgary looks great again this year as the new pieces seemed to have fit in with no issues. The fantasy concern with Kadri is, as expected, he’s lost a lot of ice time going to Calgary, where they spread out ice time far more than in Colorado. That should hurt his production and peripherals across the board, but it should mean very good things for the Flames. If they can keep up this level of play, the Flames are as dangerous as they were a year ago as they get deeper scoring-wise. (oct18)

19. Now 35, Sidney Crosby is going to continue to be a top productive option for at least three more years, yet he will continue to see his fantasy value slip as owners believe the bottom will drop out any minute. No, still three more years. That makes him great value as you pick him up 50th or 60^th in leagues. His ADP in Fantrax this year was 28^th. As for Evgeni Malkin, I kept saying all summer that this will be a rebound year. Generational players last longer. Just needs to stay healthy. (oct17)

20. Tony DeAngelo‘s best offensive seasons are still ahead of him. I’m not sure why I get so many arguments on social media when I say he’s one of the few defensemen who can get a point-per-game over an entire season. The Flyers may not have a great team, and maybe they only have one player reach 65 points this year, but if anyone gets over that mark – my money is on DeAngelo. He’s a legit power-play savant. In the Fantasy Guide I have him leading the Flyers with 57 points, but that was over 72 games. If he plays the full 82, he’s getting well over 60.

With DeAngelo as his ES partner, Ivan Provorov is really cashing in as well. He has three assists already and I am starting to think I undershot his projection (40 points). I didn’t put Provorov down in the Guide as a sleeper, but I now realize that I should have. I did accurate project him to be TDA’s defense partner, so you’d think I would have taken that a step further and put him in as a sleeper. Kicking myself. (oct17)

21. Wyatt Johnston has so far made the Dallas Stars, but these first nine games are absolutely key. He’s playing with Jamie Benn (good) and Denis Gurianov (bad), and so far the line is performing poorly. Johnston’s lone point has come on the power play. To me, it doesn’t look like he’ll play that 10^th game. He’ll go back to junior rather than the Stars burn a year of control, barring a sudden surge in his performance. Right now he is playing at the expense of Jacob Peterson. And while Peterson will never be a top sixer, the Stars don’t really need a top sixer for Johnston’s spot. Johnston needs to legitimately seize a top nine role. (oct17)

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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