21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles
Dobber Sports
2022-10-30
Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber
—
1. My thoughts on Valeri Nichushkin and his white-hot start to the campaign: I think they guy is for real. Obviously not a 150-point player, but he’s exploding for 70 points in 70 games as a 27-year-old in Todd Bertuzzi-like fashion.
Yes, it’s a little out of nowhere, but big players like this almost always break out at 26, 27 or even 28. He showed signs that this was in him in 2020-21 – especially late. And in 2021-22, though he missed 20 games, Nichushkin finally surged ahead with big points (and big minutes on both special teams). He’s ascended to point-per-game status, though I am as of yet not convinced he can be relied on to regularly play 80 games.
Many of his owners are thinking they could sell him high right now, but I’m of the opinion that even trading a 70-point player for him would actually be selling low. I don’t make these knee-jerk reactions easily. At this point he’s the driver on his line, not a passenger. (oct24)
2. It isn’t really a big surprise that Jesper Bratt is faring well to start the year; he was a guy often discussed, positively, in these Ramblings in the offseason. The surprise is just how well he is faring to start the year: tied for fourth in the league lead in points, tied for second in assists, doing that skating just 17:14. It has just been an unbelievable start to the year for Bratt, even as the team has struggled at times (particularly in goal). Even with regression built in, Bratt is well on his way to superseding point-per-game status this year. What could he do if he were skating 20 minutes a night and not 17:14? I hope we get to find out because this is a superstar taking flight and I’d like to see how he can handle heavier minutes. My guess is: just fine, thank you. (oct27)
3. Danton Heinen is a Dobber Darling. Even though I had to give up on him a couple of years ago, I always keep an eye on my darlings and root them on. And if and when they eventually do break out, I don’t get surprised because that’s why they became darlings in the first place – they just took longer to get there. But at this point, to me, a “break out” for Heinen would be 50-plus points.
Excellent depth for the Penguins, and a great player to have when you need a spot-fill on the Crosby or Malkin line. Right now he’s filling in on the Sidney Crosby line. He’s a great temporary fill-in for fantasy owners as well, but ride the hot streak while you can. His high 5on5 S% (15.8) entering Saturday indicates it’s unsustainable. (oct24)
4. Jamie Drysdale (upper-body injury) has played eight games this season and has yet to record a point. He's probably droppable at this point if you can’t move him to IR+, while John Klingberg, who is now without a point in his last seven games, can probably be benched when the Ducks play on a busy night.
Heck, dropping Klingberg in a shallow league isn’t the worst idea either. In fact, most Ducks players should only be considered for off-night streaming at the moment, with only Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras rosterable on a everyday basis. On a related Ducks' note: After winning the Ducks’ first game of the season against Seattle, John Gibson has now received either an L or an OTL in six consecutive games. In allowing four goals on 18 shots Friday, Gibson now has as many really bad starts (2) as quality starts (2). With a GAA north of 4.00, Gibson shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineup right now either. (oct29)
5. Linus Ullmark has been a major component in my 'Zero Goalie' strategy this season, as he is rostered on two of my teams. Ullmark pitched a 30-save shutout against the Blue Jackets on Friday, upping his record to 6-0-0.
Ullmark seemed to fall in fantasy drafts because of two assumptions: 1) The Bruins would struggle because of their injuries, and 2) Jeremy Swayman is the better goalie and would start more often. As it stands, Ullmark has a sub-2.00 GAA this season while holding the larger contract, and Brad Marchand just returned from injury (although he was given a scheduled load management game on Friday). Ullmark has posted a sub-2.70 GAA and .915+ SV% over his previous three seasons dating back to his time with the Sabres, so I’m more inclined to hold than I am to try to sell high. (oct29)
6. Earlier than originally projected (but maybe not because he’s a fast healer), Brad Marchand made his season debut on Thursday. He didn’t disappoint, scoring two goals and adding an assist with four shots in a 5-1 win over Detroit. Marchand’s ADP on Yahoo was 117, so the early return means that he could provide some big-time bang for the buck for those who took the chance in drafting him.
BTW: Marchand didn't play on Friday because the Bruins don’t want him to play back-to-backs just yet. The next back-to-back is November 12 and 13, but then the Bruins don’t have another one until just before Christmas. His missing those games is part of the plan, so nothing to worry about.
Pavel Zacha was expected to benefit from the Marchand absence, but he recorded just one point in six games. He’s droppable with Marchand returning unless he can make his way back into the top 6. Also watch for Taylor Hall to potentially lose value, as he was on the second-unit power play and was held to under 15 minutes of ice time on Thursday. (oct28)
7. I’ve been asked multiple questions this week about what to do with Thatcher Demko, so I’ll expand on his situation here. I was prepared to suggest that the Canucks were overworking Demko if they were playing him in both games of a back-to-back, but they decided to give Spencer Martin the nod against the Penguins on Friday. It was the right call, as Martin earned the win (stopped 34 of 35 shots) and Demko received his much-needed rest.
Even though Martin is a solid goalie in his own right (no regulation losses in 8 GP as a Canuck), you can probably assume that Demko will be among the league leaders in starts again. Only Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck played in more games than Demko (64 GP) last season, and those same two goalies were also the only two with more saves than Demko (1799 SV). Another 60+ game season seems likely again with the unproven Martin or possibly Collin Delia as his backup, so Demko is a great option if your league emphasizes volume stats.
Although the Canucks’ start to the season couldn’t have gone worse, expect them to pick up a bunch of wins as the season goes on. At this point I’d expect something similar to last season, where they won’t make the playoffs but will still be picking at around 15th overall (the NHL’s mushy middle). Demko could still finish in the top 10 in wins, although he will be at the mercy of the Canucks’ porous defense as far as ratios go (especially goals-against average).
According to Yahoo’s Trade Market feature, Demko is being exchanged for the likes of Zach Hyman and Ryan O’Reilly. Not exactly top-tier forwards, but forwards that have a place on rosters anyway. He obviously still holds value, so I wouldn’t drop him. Perhaps watch his matchups more closely for the time being, though it's worth mentioning that the Canucks have now won two in a row after that nightmare start. (oct29)
8. While we’re on the subject of the Canucks, they exchanged 23-year-old prospects with the Bruins late Thursday. The B's acquired one-time goalie prospect Michael DiPietro, while the Canucks added Jack Studnicka. DiPietro’s development had been stalled because of COVID, and he had even become the odd man out on the Canucks’ AHL affiliate. He’s still young enough to develop into an NHL goalie at some point. As for Studnicka, don’t be surprised to see him fill a fourth-line role for the Canucks right away with the recent injury to Curtis Lazar and possibly move up the lineup. The Bruins have given him top-6 minutes in the past, so there’s scoring upside as well. (oct28)
9. Elsewhere, Kieffer Bellows was claimed on waivers by the Flyers on Thursday. Bellows was a 2016 first-round pick of the Islanders with potential bangers league value (103 hits in just 45 GP last season). The Flyers could have an opening for Bellows this season because of their lack of snipers, which might be something to keep an eye on if this team is a better fit for him than the Islanders. If not, he is now 24 years old and may be running out of NHL options when his contract expires this season. (oct28)
10. Patrick Kane started the season with just one point in his first four games, which no doubt worried fantasy teams that drafted him given the lack of scoring on the Blackhawks. Now he has eight points in as many games. Max Domi (4-3-7) has benefitted from playing on Kane’s line. Before you rush to the waiver wire to add Domi, keep in mind that his four goals come on just 11 shots. He’s obviously in a great spot with first-line duties and solid power-play minutes, although the situation in Chicago hardly seems settled. Domi is also on a one-year contract, so expect the Hawks to trade him for futures at some point this season. (oct28)
11. Erik Karlsson is making it look like old times again, as he’s been very productive so far with 11 points in 11 games. Of course, Karlsson is always just an injury away, as he has not played 60 games in a season since he was an Ottawa Senator. Maybe a bit of a sell high for that reason? (oct28)
12. I should have seen this coming. Once Jay Woodcroft took over last season, Evan Bouchard‘s ice time fell from 21:41 a night to 17:33 a night. My assumption was that Bouchard’s talent would force the coach’s hand and push him up the depth chart in 2022-23. That has definitely not happened as Bouchard sits at 18:16 per game, with zero goals and four assists in nine contests. On the bright side, the peripherals are very stout. He has 20 shots on goal and 16 hits in those six games. There should be concern about his shots/game, but still managing 2.5 shots per game with 18 minutes a night is a good performance. (oct27)
13. Traded to Montreal this past week, Nicolas Beaudin, Chicago’s first-round pick in 2018, played just 22 games with the Blackhawks, failing to crack the roster in 2022-23. In his 2017-18 draft year in the QMJHL, he tied Noah Dobson for second in points among defensemen with 69. That never really translated to success in the AHL, posting 42 points in 137 games. Further to that, 10 of his points came in 9 games during that COVID 2021 year when AHL depth was thinned out. So, he had 32 points in his other 128 games. Not great.
Whether he becomes an NHL regular is open for debate, but these are the types of reclamation projects a rebuilding team like Montreal needs, particularly on the blue line. He was a very good puck-mover – at least our Dobber Prospects team thought so – early in his career so getting that touch back is important. If he can develop well, there will be ample opportunity for him to reach the NHL on a roster that needs blue-line help. (oct27)
14. Ottawa Senators fans and fantasy owners got very bad news regarding Josh Norris:
From Ian Mendes: D.J. Smith says there is no timeline yet on Josh Norris. But it's going to be "long-term". They are still debating surgery option. Decision will be made in the next few days, but Smith sounds like Ottawa will be fortunate to have Norris return at some point this season.
That the team just hopes he can make it back this season is an indication of how serious this is. The immediate replacement was Derick Brassard, obviously, but whether that’s still the replacement in January is a whole other question. I can’t help but wonder whether we see Shane Pinto see an increased role sooner rather than later.
This is also a tough break for Claude Giroux fantasy owners. He loses a goal scorer on his even-strength line and is the odd-man out on the power play up front, at least for now. (oct27)
15. Winnipeg has been very inconsistent thus far and that has affected everyone throughout the lineup. For example, Kyle Connor‘s ice time and shot rates have dropped slightly this year. Entering Sunday, he was only shooting 3.3%, more than three times lower than his career average. Even out his shooting percentage to his career average with an extra two goals and he is pretty close to his usual self. Nothing to worry about here, especially with the easy schedule Winnipeg has coming up over the next couple of weeks. (oct26)
16. The nagging injury that kept Pavel Buchnevich out of the lineup for games two through four of the season has been tough for poolies, but Buch returned to the lineup yesterday (Saturday), although he was held without a point and was a minus-2. The issue is that when day-to-day injuries stretch out for longer than anticipated, they almost always end up being a background issue for the rest of the season as the player decides to just play through it.
Rick has a deeper dive on Buchnevich in this week’s Forum Buzz. He also needs a few more questions for this month’s monthly mailbag. To get your question to him, you can either private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums, or send an email to [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line. (oct26)
17. Miro Heiskanen has missed the last three games with an undisclosed upper-body injury and Nils Lundkvist has seen his ice time jump – on the power play, too. He's at four points in nine games and if Heiskanen is out for any length of time, then Lundkvist’s scoring pace should jump above one point every two games. (oct26)
18. I’m not kidding, Blackhawks' Alex Stalock is the most entertaining goalie I’ve seen in a while. Very aggressive, and just always making himself seen when the puck is around him.
I’ve added him in two leagues already, as he’s winning his share of games and seeing a massive volume of shots. He’s been out of the NHL for a while now with some heart issues, but he looks healthy, and in peak-form right now. He has never strung together two straight solid seasons, but he does pop off for an exceptional 30 games or so every four years.
As someone that hates spending any kind of high draft capital to draft a goalie, and refuses to give up a solid skater for an equivalent goalie, Stalock is exactly the kind of hot goalie that I love to ride for 20 games or so until the next shiny goalie comes along. (oct26)
19. Both Tom Wilson (ACL surgery) and Nicklas Backstrom (hip resurfacing surgery) did some light skating this past week for the first time since their respective injuries. This is still part of the rehab and doesn’t indicate anything close to an imminent return. That they’re both skating is a good sign, though, and perhaps he can return with meaningful time left in the regular season. (oct27)
20. Dylan Strome was moved to the top line this past week in Washington, playing between Alex Ovechkin and Conor Sheary. He has been off to a solid start to the season with six points in eight games, but four of those have come on the PP. They need more from Strome at 5-on-5 offensively and we’ll see if the move next to Ovechkin helps.
Connor McMichael was once again scratched, as he’s been out of the lineup for seven of eight Washington games this year. Despite the injuries and underperformance elsewhere, he just can’t get regular minutes. An intrepid NHL GM would make a phone call to see if the team may be ready to part with him. (oct25)
21. Keep an eye on goaltender Daniil Tarasov. I’m a huge fan of Elvis Merzlikins, but I’m also high on Tarasov. I do think Tarasov is a little young at 23 to become a starter, but he was outstanding at times lately and Elvis has been struggling. (oct24)
***
Ontario DFS fans – I’ve just discovered a DFS company that operates in the province. OwnersBox started out as a weekly fantasy site (so I guess…WFS?) but expanded to the DFS format and maintain operations in Ontario. You can visit them here, and you can have a free DFS play if you use promo code “DOBBER”.
We have made OwnersBox our fourth DFS company that we provide tools for with our DFS subscription. For $99.99 you get access for the full season and playoffs to these tools for four big DFS sites – including our patented hot/cold and weighted average formulas that optimize your lineups, as well as our stack generator (which helps you stack your DFS lineup if you want to focus on a certain team). You can get the subscription here.
***
Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!
Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.