Ramblings: Habs and Isles Top Lines, Dach, Maccelli, Ruzicka (Nov 13)

Ian Gooding

2022-11-13

Alex DeBrincat led the Senators with a pair of power-play goals in their 4-1 matinee win in Philadelphia. The goals were the Cat's first in seven games. I saw someone on Twitter making a case that DeBrincat has struggled early in his first season with the Senators. Maybe in the goal-scoring department, but he's now a point-per-game with 13 points in 14 games. Get away from the panic button.

Thomas Chabot left Saturday's game after taking a hit. Sens coach D.J. Smith did not provide an update after the game, which leaves Chabot's status up in the air for next week. Jake Sanderson led Senators' defensemen in power-play minutes in this game, so his value might receive an uptick if Chabot misses time. Chabot scored a goal before leaving the game.

In his first game back in Philadelphia since being traded last season (complete with video tribute, of course), Claude Giroux recorded two assists.

Aaron Ekblad returned to the Panthers lineup on Saturday after missing nearly a month with a lower-body injury. Ekblad was held without a point while leading the Panthers with 23 minutes of icetime.

Even with Ekblad's return, the Panthers have decided to keep Brandon Montour on the first-unit power-play along with Ekblad and use only three forwards on the first unit. This is the same team that once experimented with using five forwards on that same unit, but obviously Paul Maurice has different ideas. There's no point in dropping Montour, at least for the time being. Only four defensemen currently have more points than Montour (15 PTS in 13 GP).

Sam Bennett scored a pair of goals for the Panthers while firing six shots. After a slow start, Bennett has multiple points in back-to-back games as well as goals in three consecutive games.

Tyson Barrie scored twice for the Oilers in their win, extending his point streak to four games. I know fantasy owners have been waiting and expecting Evan Bouchard to take on first-unit power-play minutes for the Oils, but Barrie is still locked in that role and getting the job done. Barrie has 12 points in 16 games including seven power-play points (only two defensemen currently have more), while Bouchard has yet to score a goal all season and has been held without a point in six games. I made a point to add Barrie in my salary cap league recently, and I'm glad I did.  

Connor McDavid recorded an assist, extending his assist streak to 10 games.

If the Montreal Canadiens are in a rebuilding state, then the future looks bright for their top line. Here are the league's three most productive even-strength lines, according to Frozen Tools:

Line CombinationTeamPOSGF
JOE PAVELSKI – ROOPE HINTZ – JASON ROBERTSONDALF15
MARK STONE – CHANDLER STEPHENSON – JACK EICHELVGKF11
NICK SUZUKI – KIRBY DACH – COLE CAUFIELDMTLF10

Nick Suzuki scored a goal and added an assist on Saturday, giving him seven goals and 12 points over his last seven games. Cole Caufield also scored a goal on Saturday, giving him 11 points over his last nine games. Caufield also took six shots, giving him an average of nearly five shots per game over his last eight games. Both players have averaged around a point per game since Martin St. Louis took over as head coach midway through last season, so there's a larger body of work beyond the early-season sample size.

Entering the season, the biggest unknown of this trio was Kirby Dach, who had averaged around a 30-point pace over his two previous full-ish (60+ game) seasons. Perhaps Dach was the victim of high expectations too early, as he jumped straight to the NHL after being drafted third overall in 2019. Fast forward three years later and Dach is near a point-per-game pace (14 PTS in 15 GP) on a new team. Dach has multiple points in each of his last two games, including two assists on Saturday. If you've been patient with him for three years in a keeper league, you're starting to reap the rewards.

Something to be wary of with this line: All three of these players have a lot of red in their Frozen Tools advanced stats, which indicates a potential sell-high opportunity. They are all young players (Suzuki is the oldest at 23), so their trajectories all point upward anyway. Just be prepared for some games where all three fail to find the scoresheet. I have both Suzuki and Caufield on one of my rosters, so this is something I need to be particularly careful of. This is a challenge to note if you have two players from the same team (and more importantly, the same line) on your roster.

With his overtime winner, Mike Hoffman now has goals in three consecutive games and four goals over that span. He's also been firing the puck lately with at least three shots in each of his last five games. His career has been on a downward trajectory over the past couple seasons, and I'd be hard-pressed to think he can reach 25 goals and 200 shots on this Montreal roster – particularly if he's not on the top line. That being said, Hoffman is showing that he might have something left in the tank.

The last time Tristan Jarry recorded a quality start was October 22. He's started five games since then and has been splitting starts with Casey DeSmith over that duration. Ideally, he falls into the "bench but don't drop" category. He's known for bouts of inconsistency but previous results have shown that he should eventually find his game.

The line combination that is tied for fourth on the previous section's table (not listed) is the Islanders combo of Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, and Anthony Beauvillier with nine even-strength goals. Nelson deserves particular mention on Saturday, as he led the Isles with a pair of goals while firing 10 shots. After being held without a goal in his first seven games, Nelson has eight goals over his last nine games. He's also at a point-per-game pace with 17 points in 16 games. He's a perpetually underrated player who is rostered in just over half of Yahoo leagues. A 37-goal scorer last season, Nelson is worth making room for if he's still on your league's waiver wire.

Remember what I told you about Jake Bean yesterday? Bean chipped in two assists – one of which was on the power play – while logging 21 minutes and first-unit power-play duties. He's there because Zach Werenski is expected to miss the rest of the regular season. Not good for Columbus or Werenski owners, but at least the replacement is widely available (4% Yahoo/29% Fantrax).  

The decision to start Erik Kallgren on back-to-back nights paid off, as he made 27 saves in a 3-2 win over Vancouver. Kallgren has started each of the Leafs' last four games, although Matt Murray may be ready to return for Tuesday's game against Pittsburgh. Sheldon Keefe decided that Keith Petruzzelli wasn't quite ready to make his NHL debut, which wouldn't be an easy spot for him as he has played in only 11 AHL games.

Quinn Hughes has assists in 10 of the 11 games he has played this season, although he has not yet scored a goal. Hughes would qualify for a nine-game assist streak if the streak wasn't broken up by an injury.

Akira Schmid made his first start of the season, making 16 saves in the Devils' 4-2 win over Arizona. That brings New Jersey's win streak to nine games and counting. Vitek Vanecek is expected to travel with the Devils on their upcoming road trip, so how many games Schmid will start seems up in the air. Regardless, Schmid is worth adding in many formats for a red-hot Devils team that will play games in Eastern Canada (Montreal, Toronto, Ottawa) next week.

The rookie scoring leader isn't Matty Beniers or the once-hot Shane Pinto, as you might expect. It's actually Arizona Coyotes forward Matias Maccelli, who with an assist on Saturday has 10 points in 14 games. He had a strong first AHL season last season with 57 points in 47 games, which should automatically create an opportunity on a team like the Coyotes. He hasn't been boosted with star linemates, as his most frequent even-strength linemates have been Lawson Crouse and Nick Bjugstad. Seven of his points have been on the power play, where he is averaging second-unit minutes.

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Between the lack of even-strength production and lack of proven scoring options surrounding Maccelli, I'm skeptical that he will be able to keep his spot among the top rookie scorers. He won't help you much next week anyway, as the Coyotes play just one game. For more about the upcoming schedule, check out Looking Ahead.

Juuso Parssinen scored his first NHL goal in his first NHL game for the Predators. In this week's Journey article, Ben introduces you to Parssinen if you're not familiar with him. Of note is the fact that Parssinen was on a line with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund in his debut.

Otherwise, the highlight of the Rangers/Predators game was provided by two heavyweights that you might be familiar with from bangers leagues.

At the top of the Frozen Tools Hot Players table, you'll find Mikko Rantanen. Why? How about seven goals and seven assists in his last five games. That includes the goal and three assists that Rantanen added on Saturday. Rantanen has multiple points in four of his last five games. This after failing to record a point in the previous four games.   

The Jonathan Huberdeau injury has resulted in Adam Ruzicka being promoted to the top line and first-unit power play in Calgary. Ruzicka made the most of that opportunity, scoring a goal and adding an assist in helping the Flames snap a seven-game losing streak. Ruzicka is rostered in a super-low number of leagues (less than 1% Yahoo/5% Fantrax), so he's worth an add in a deeper league while he's on a line with Elias Lindholm and Tyler Toffoli. Ruzicka and Lindholm assisted on each other's goals on Saturday.

Highlight from that game, courtesy of Jacob Markstrom:

In earning the win, Markstrom earned his first quality start in his last six tries. The number of starting goalies that are struggling over the first month of the season seems astounding. I'm sure the poor results will be corrected for many of these goalies as the season wears on, but I'm glad (so far) that I opted for a Zero G strategy.

With a goal on Saturday, Pierre-Luc Dubois has goals in four consecutive games and six points over that span.

In his 13th game of the season, Ryan O'Reilly managed to double his point total with a goal and an assist. The assist was his first of the season. With three points over his last three games, O'Reilly is starting to show signs of life.

Although the Blues ended Vegas's winning streak at nine games, a few of their scorers still remain on the cool side. One particular player of concern is Pavel Buchnevich. Since his return from injury, Buchnevich has failed to record points in six of the seven games he has played and he has just four points all season. Moreover, he's taken fewer than two shots per game since returning. Maybe it's lingering effects from the injury or just a slow start, but keep Buchnevich on your bench for now if you have surplus players on your busy nights.

Let's finish with something fun… a goalie goal!

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

2 Comments

  1. Jake Blumes 2022-11-13 at 14:08

    Always enjoy your analysis, Ian. Which Frozen Tool report gave you the top lines you wrote about from Vegas, Dallas and Montreal?

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