Ramblings: Petersen to AHL, Hedman Worries, Demko Injured (Dec 2)

Ian Gooding

2022-12-02

Cal Petersen being placed on waivers wasn't something I had predicted before the season, even if he wasn't going to unseat Jonathan Quick as the Kings starter. Yet with an .888 SV% and negative GSAA (goals saved above average) dating back to the start of last season, it was becoming more and more apparent that Petersen hasn't been helping fantasy teams for over a season. Entering Thursday's play, Petersen and Quick's combined .879 SV% was the worst of any team's goaltenders in the NHL. Obviously a 9-8 pond hockey match doesn't help matters, but only five teams had allowed more goals per game than the Kings prior to Thursday.

Finding a reliable goalie isn't a worthwhile option when you already have nearly $11 million in cap space invested in goalies. Giving Petersen some time to clear his head in the AHL might be the best option for all involved, knowing that a team likely won't take his $5 million salary given his recent body of work. Petersen should be considered droppable in single-season formats at this point. Don't give him a look again until he can prove that he can string together some quality starts at the NHL level.

Maybe I'm giving more time to Petersen in particular because I specifically traded for him in my keeper league this offseason. The price was Tyler Bertuzzi, who has struggled with injuries this season and coincidentally was placed on injured reserve on Thursday. Sometimes trades work out for neither team (at least so far with this one). Anyway, goalies continue to be frustrating and hard to predict.  

Alex Formenton was not signed by 5 pm ET RFA deadline on Thursday, so he is ineligible to play this season. The offseason additions of Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux were likely going to push Formenton down the Senators lineup anyway. Neither Formenton nor any of his representatives has not addressed the gang rape that members of Canada's 2018 World Junior team are accused of taking part in, so it's possible that this incident is affecting Formenton's situation behind the scenes.

There's reason to be at least mildly concerned about Victor Hedman and his lack of production and power-play time so far. Hedman has scored just one goal all season and has been held without a point over his last four games. As you've probably heard by now, Hedman has moved to the second power-play unit to give hotter hand Mikhail Sergachev the prime power-play opportunity. Should this arrangement continue, Hedman's run of at least 20 power-play points over each of the last six seasons (including the COVID-shortened ones) will be in serious jeopardy. That will cut into his production, although his usual even-strength production shows that he has a long, long way to fall before he should be considered droppable in fantasy leagues. Remember, he reached a career-high 85 points last season. You won't find a defenseman with that kind of upside on your waiver wire, plain and simple.

Nick Paul scored twice for the Lightning on Thursday, giving him five goals and seven points over his last five games. Since being held without a point over his last five games, Paul has scored at a point-per-game pace with 18 points (including 11 goals) over his last 18 games. He's found himself to be a regular linemate of Steven Stamkos while averaging over a minute more per game in Tampa than he was during his time in Ottawa. The icetime and linemates may ease a potential regression, which will likely happen given some much-higher-than-normal advanced stats (25.6 SH%, 13.2 5on5 SH%, 2.7 PTS/60, 1062 PDO).

It’s time to make room for Dylan Cozens in single-season leagues. Cozens sniped a power-play goal and added two assists on Thursday, giving him four goals and six points over his last three games and 13 points over his last 11 games. Moreover, he's pushing into point-per-game territory over the season (21 PTS in 24 GP). He will probably cool off given his advanced stats (14.3 SH%, 11.5 5on5 SH%, 3.1 PTS/60), but his overall icetime is up a minute per game while he's regularly taking a turn on the first-unit power play. If you like to compare prospects, Cozens is currently fourth in scoring among 2019-drafted players.

Jeff Petry wasn't really a hot draft commodity this season, even with a trade to Pittsburgh. But now that Kris Letang will be sidelined after another stroke, Petry is making the most of his opportunity. Petry has recorded an assist in each of the two games, and he's reached 26 minutes in icetime in both of those games. He's also been adding to his physical game with 11 hits over those two games. Yes, there's also the power-play opportunity with Letang out, but Petry had been used on the first unit with Letang for a few games prior to Letang's stroke.

Bryan Rust is back on the cold list. No points in his last six games, and no points in 13 of his last 14 games (he recorded two points in the other game). To Rust's credit, he took six shots on Thursday. As well, he's back on the first power-play unit after a brief spell on the second unit. There's too much scoring talent around him in Pittsburgh, and his advanced stats (7.5 SH%, 1.4 PTS/60, 20.0 Sec Asst%) show he's a potential buy low. I'd hold, even if the constant goose eggs in the boxscore are hard to stomach.

The 2022-23 season just went from bad to worse for Thatcher Demko. After allowing three late first-period within a one-minute span, Demko was forced to leave the game with a leg injury, needing assistance to get off the ice. Demko has just three wins and three quality starts in 15 games this season, but he appeared to be turning a corner recently with two of those quality starts coming over his last four games (including Thursday).

Although the Canucks' lack of defense has made their goalies a risky start regardless of who's in net, Spencer Martin deserves a pickup in many league formats (14% Yahoo/28% Fantrax). Martin has the superior all-around numbers to Demko in nearly as many starts, which explains why Vancouver goaltending has gradually turned into a timeshare. Martin has just one Really Bad Start in 10 games compared to Demko's 5 RBS, so he's been half decent even if he's not an elite-level goalie. If Demko stands to miss time, expect onetime Dobber favorite Collin Delia to be recalled from the AHL. Delia's AHL numbers (3.85 GAA, .888 SV%) don't state a strong case that he'll be able to unseat Martin.

Another day at the office for Jason Robertson. A hat trick on Thursday gives him a league-leading 22 goals, while he's racked up 20 of those goals and 32 points in his 17-game point streak. Never mind the Rocket Richard Trophy, there's now talk of Robertson in the Hart Trophy race. I'm going to really have to hike this guy up the Top 100 Roto Rankings when they next appear in mid-December. And yeah, not a good week to face him in head-to-head. Props to my opponent, who added Robertson as a prospect late in the season several years ago when his team was out of the race.

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Alexander Holtz's overall season production (2 G in 6 GP) might not grab your attention. However, he scored a power-play goal on Thursday while getting a shot on the Devils' first unit. Holtz has yet to make any major ripples at the NHL level, but he's been a point-per-game player in the AHL over the past two seasons. He could be one to add to your watch list. With a shot like this, he might score a few more goals this season.

Matty Beniers needed overtime to extend his point streak to six games, but he wasted little time in scoring once the game got there. Beniers is flying high with 12 points over his last six games. He leads all rookies in scoring with 21 points, which is six points ahead of the next-highest rookie.

With two more assists on Thursday, Andre Burakovsky has a five-game point streak of his own, which includes five goals and 10 points. Burakovsky has been a successful free-agent signing for the Kraken so far, leading the team with 25 points in 23 games.

By the way, that next-highest-scoring rookie is Matias Maccelli, who has back-to-back two-point games. Only Clayton Keller has more points among Coyotes players. There's a good chance you've never heard of Maccelli, which means it might be the right time to find a place for him on your roster (2% Yahoo/27% Fantrax). I placed a successful bid for him recently in one league knowing that he'd probably be flying under the radar.

Antti Raanta was pulled after allowing three goals on 15 shots over the first two periods against St. Louis. In came rookie Pyotr Kochetkov, who allowed a goal on 11 shots in backstopping the Hurricanes to an eventual win. Kochetkov was expected to be the third-stringer for the Canes with Frederik Andersen expected to carry the bulk of the starts. Yet with Andersen injured, Kochetkov has jumped over Raanta as the goalie receiving the regular starts. That's one thing that we take into account when breaking down goalie situations in the Midseason Guide, so look for more of that when the Midseason Guide is ready in mid-January.

A Jordan Martinook hat trick… bet none of you had that. Good night.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

One Comment

  1. Jake Blumes 2022-12-02 at 12:36

    I picked up Dylan Cozen in my keeper league and will start him next week :)
    How gòod do you think he will be in the future?
    I see him rising up the Top 300 Keepers big time each month.

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