Ramblings: Thoughts on Steel, the Kid Line, Kochetkov, Kahkonen and more … (Dec. 19)
Dobber
2022-12-19
In case you missed it: The 15th annual Midseason Guide will be released on Friday, January 13! Pre-order it here. This is included in the Platinum/Gold subscriptions only, or the Ultimate Fantasy Pack (not the Keeper League Pack).
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I know we've talked about Sam Steel on here quite a bit over the last two weeks, but I really like what the Wild did with him. He didn't get just a game or two on the big line. They didn't even quit on him when he started slowly with seven or eight games of not doing much. In fact, Dean Evason stuck with him throughout and now he's comfortable. Secure. And finally – productive. Two more assists Sunday gives him five points in three games. With Ryan Hartman's return, the team is still sticking with Steel. This is how you do it. You can't give a young player just a half-game to show what he can do. Or a full game. Or even five games. You have to stick to the plan, if you see any kind of chemistry there and the young player has skill and upside. I know it might cost you a couple of wins. But long term, you are possibly creating a star for your team. The alternative, by doing it the other way? Well, if you give the young player his one game or two games, and then you give up on him…well, maybe you snag some extra wins by pulling the plug. But you don't create that star. And so you spend the next couple of years trying to find that star via free agency or trade, often failing. I think it's worth the sacrifice. Give the guy 20 games and see if you can create a star. Steel isn't there yet, but he's starting to look awfully good for it and we've always known he has upside.
There have been times in the past where this same strategy was employed, but did not work. I remember a few years ago when the Islanders tried Cory Conacher for about 12 games alongside John Tavares. That one failed. But that's the kind of effort you need to put in. You can't try just a few games, such as when the Penguins tried Zach Boychuk alongside Evgeni Malkin briefly. Or, circling back to Tavares, the Leafs try Denis Malgin there on that line. He needs more than just a game here or there to truly find out if it works. But you can find examples of this a hundred times per season across the NHL. But you don't find enough examples of what the Wild just did (and are doing) with Sam Steel.
Once in a while, I circle back to my Steve Sullivan example. Over the years I've probably told this story five or six times, but for newer readers here it is again. He was played alongside Mats Sundin and Jonas Hoglund here there for the odd game. He would show well, but would lose that spot whenever a more established player returned to the lineup. So then he would be pushed down to the line with Tie Domi and Kris King and – wonder of all wonders – he had trouble producing on that line. Early in 1999-2000, the Leafs signed Dmitri Khristich as a free agent and had to send a player to the minors. They sent Sullivan, but had to put him on waivers first. The Blackhawks claimed him – and the rest is history. We know all about Steve Sullivan after that. Had the Leafs stuck with Sullivan on a top line for the proper length of time, they would have had a much better star than they got in Khristich.
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Calen Addison had six points in the first four games, but as impressive as he's looked – bottom line is that he's only tallied nine points in his last 26. I suspect it's only a matter of time before Jared Spurgeon starts taking on that top PP job. Spurgeon has eight points in his last 11 games. His PP time is down to a third of what it was last year, from about three minutes to one minute per game average. But that average is closer to two minutes over the last seven or eight games so you see where the trend is heading.
Hartman's return upgrades Matt Boldy's linemate at least.
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Brady Skjei is on a heater. He now has seven points in his last seven games, bringing his numbers in line with last season and on a full-season pace of 37 (finished with 39 last year).
Pyotr Kochetkov continues to make a case to stay in the NHL. He's still exempt from waivers (someone had mistakenly reported that he was placed on waivers and cleared them early this season but that is not true) and will remain exempt for another 40 games. When Frederik Andersen returns from injury, I tend to think that Kochetkov will play in the AHL to get into game action. But what will Carolina do next summer? Keep in mind, Kochetkov is only 23 years old and he only played 17 NHL games in his entire career. Is it smart to saddle such a player with your starting job? You can try it, and maybe it will work. Or maybe you end up Carter Hart-ing him. I suspect that if Andersen will re-sign for a short-term contract, they go that route and let Kochetkov back him up and play about 40 games next year.
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As expected, the Rangers' offense feasted on Chicago's fringe-NHL team. Artemi Panarin posted three points, Adam Fox broke out of his mini-slump with three of his own (and what better medicine for a slump than playing the Blackhawks?). But what's worth noting the most in fantasy (to me) is that the Kid Line is starting to heat up again as they did at the end of last season. Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere each had a pair of points. Give Chytil and Kakko each with five in the last four games. Lafreniere has six in his last seven. Chytil is on pace for 56 and I think he'll get to 50 if he can stay healthy (see below). The other two are on pace for significantly less (Kakko on pace for 35, Lafreniere for 40), but I'd love to see them reach 45.
Lafreniere is primed for a breakout next season and if the other two can continue chemistry on his line, he'll drag both of them upwards along with him.
Chytil left the game with an upper-body injury. No word on the extent.
This is how Chicago's lineup looked in our Frozen Tools box scores:
I have never seen so many 'cold' indicators (the snowflake), and not a 'hot' indicator (a flame) in sight. Just found that funny. How will this team look after they trade Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane? Yikes.
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With two more assists Sunday, Josh Morrissey pulled into a tie for fourth place in the entire league for that statistic.
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In the last three weeks, Dillon Dube leads the Calgary Flames in scoring with 10 points in 11 games.
I have this feeling that Flames are going to have a big second half. Call it a hunch. This team had a lot of key players come and go, and you have to think that takes 20 or 30 games to get the Darryl Sutter system all figured out. I bought low on Noah Hanifin 10 games into the season when he had just a single point. And now I will be inquiring about other Flames such as Jonathan Huberdeau (who played his 700th career NHL game Sunday) and Nazem Kadri.
I feel bad for Kaapo Kahkonen, who I thought played well when the team in front of him didn't on Sunday. But then in the third period the dam burst, and Kahkonen seemed completely rattled after giving up two quick ones. He's having such a bad season. I think he needs the Cal Petersen treatment. Sneak him through waivers and get him some AHL action. Get his confidence back. He is a former AHL goaltender of the year.
Erik Karlsson picks up his 700th career point here:
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By the way, Petersen is still flying for the Ontario Reign. He's 4-1-0 with a 0.947 SV%, including a shutout victory on Sunday.
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Last week I discussed the biggest trade of my fantasy hockey career, and there were a few comments criticizing the move. I think there were probably hundreds who agreed with those who criticized, but I also think they were in the minority. They just didn't understand the style of league.
Let's simplify.
In terms of my 12 keepers, here is what they were before the trade (with points-per-game under this league's format in brackets):
Nathan MacKinnon (2.53)
Tage Thompson (2.75)
Jesper Bratt (1.57)
Kevin Fiala (1.54)
Clayton Keller (1.49)
Victor Hedman (1.31)
John Carlson (1.52)
Erik Karlsson (1.86)
Morgan Rielly (1.34)
Oliver Bjorkstrand (0.90)
My 12 Keepers Now:
Tage Thompson (2.75)
Sebastian Aho (1.72)
Jesper Bratt (1.57)
Kevin Fiala (1.54)
Clayton Keller (1.49)
Tomas Hertl (1.49)
JT Miller (1.56)
Victor Hedman (1.31)
John Carlson (1.52)
Erik Karlsson (1.86)
So from a keeper standpoint, I lose. But how much do I lose? MacKinnon, Rielly and Bjorkstrand are out. Aho, Hertl and Miller are in. MacKinnon to Aho is a 0.8 drop and that's obviously the biggest cost. Bjorkstrand to Miller is a 0.66 rise. Hertl and Rielly are close, and I'd rather have a defenseman than a forward. Not a terrible cost overall, and this deal gave me options for those last two keeper slots. If Noah Hanifin continues to produce, then I can keep him over Hertl, for example. So at this small cost in terms of keepers, I have a team that can take a run at the title. I don't like going more than a few years without a title in keeper leagues.
I didn't have depth with high-caliber producers as it is a deep league. Now, every player on my active roster are reliable and big producers. The worst active center is Hertl. This is a 15-team league that needs four active centermen. To have Hertl as the worst? Nobody else has this firepower. The worst active wingers on my team are Jamie Benn, Jared McCann and Kevin Hayes. After that, it's Carter Verhaeghe. My worst defenseman is Sean Durzi? Alex Pietrangelo on my bench? I have by far the best defense corps in the league.
And my bench now has Alex Pietrangelo, Gustav Forsling, Kevin Labanc, Morgan Frost (or waiver wire) and Artturi Lehkonen. Just as important as this depth though – I have healthy players. MacKinnon, Demko and Rielly are out!
Anyway, since the trade I have moved up to third. As I write this, I'm two points out of second. And then there is a gap to catch first. He has Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Tristan Jarry. I needed to load up to take that run. Now I have a powerful active roster and tremendous bench depth for spot starts on those four-game vs. two-game weeks and I think by February I can catch him.
We'll see. Wish me luck!
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On Friday, thanks to the Frozen Tools DFS Subscription tools, I finally took first prize in the OwnersBox Shootout contest ($200). I had won money many times (also won 'zero' a lot), but never the big one in about six or seven weeks of playing. So that felt great. Was exciting to watch Clayton Keller pot a late goal to seal the win for me. And then on Saturday I took a top five prize, pocketing another $50. So the tools are on a bit of a run. Of course, you have to use your brains along with them. On my winning team Friday, I didn't want the tool-recommended Brock Nelson and instead replaced him with Robert Thomas. That decision put me into first instead of third. I made it because I had Nelson in another contest and I try not to double up.
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And speaking of DFS, my thrice-rescheduled meeting with Ontario's Minister of Finance, Peter Bethlenfalvy, takes place this afternoon (Monday). I will be presenting my case for changes to the sports wagering laws in an effort to break the DFS portion of that law into its own category, or amend the law along the same vein. Let's get DraftKings and FanDuel back in Ontario for DFS.
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See you next Monday.