The 15^th annual Midseason Guide will be released on Friday, January 13! Pre-order it here. This is included in the Platinum/Gold subscriptions only, or the Ultimate Fantasy Pack (not the Keeper League Pack). Just three weeks away!

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I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and is enjoying their holiday so far. Still some family events ahead of you today I'm sure, and while you wait for your family to get their act together – here you are, standing by the front door and killing time by checking out DobberHockey. Thank you for that – I've had something here every day since 2005, including Christmas. Even Christmas 2008, the day I became a father. I actually jumped on here and posted about it!

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First, some funky stats. Ian Gooding took a look at some year-end stats yesterday, forcing me to look a little deeper and have a little fun as I got lost in the Frozen Tools rabbit hole.

Top 10 players to hit the post so far this season:

1. Vincent Trocheck (9)
2. Connor McDavid (8)
3. Alex Ovechkin (7)
4. Kyle Connor (7)
5. Tage Thompson (6)
6. Patrick Kane (6)
7. P-L Dubois (6)
8. JT Miller (6)
9. Mikko Rantanen (5) and eight others (William Nylander, Bo Horvat, Elias Pettersson, Andrei Svechnikov, Artemi Panarin, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle and Victor Olofsson)

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Top 5 players to shoot it wide:

1. Andrei Svechnikov (57)
2. Auston Matthews (56)
3. Ovechkin (54)
4. Timo Meier (53)
5. Noah Dobson (51)

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Only one player has hit the crossbar more than three times this season, and that player is Troy Terry – four times.

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Top 10 missed shots (a missed shot we will class as a shot taken that hit the post, crossbar, went wide or went over the net):

1. Ovechkin (69) – hey, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take!
2. Svechnikov (65)
3. Meier (63)
4. Matthews (62)
5. Terry (59)
6. Dobson (57)
7. David Pastrnak (55)
8. Filip Forsberg (53)
9. Trocheck (53)
10. Mika Zibanejad (52)

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What can we take from all this? Well, not too much since we already knew these are great players who generally take a lot of shots. The only surprise to me is Trocheck, who has just 12 goals on the campaign. But I wonder if that number is going to spike in the second half, given the info above. His 5on5 S% actually suggests a stronger second half is coming, and given his overall shot volume (and shot attempts), you have to think he's an excellent buy-low candidate. This is even though his 66-point pace is actually pretty solid.

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Here is an interesting one. Which players have had their shots blocked the most so far this year? Well, the answer isn't even close. Erik Karlsson has been blocked 95 times. Ironically enough, his former compadre is at No.2…

1. Karlsson (95)
2. Brent Burns (88)
3. Roman Josi (86)
4. Dougie Hamilton (85)
5. Ovechkin (84)
6. Pastrnak (84)
7. Cale Makar (84)
8. Dobson (71)
9. Jason Robertson (67)
10. Miro Heiskanen (67)

Not surprising that this particular list is dominated by defensemen, who obviously shoot from further out than forwards.

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Just seven players who have played more than 20 games have points in 80% of their games or more:

Connor McDavid (31 of 35 games), Mitchell Marner (30 of 34), David Pastrnak (29 of 33), Leon Draisaitl (29 of 35), Josh Morrissey (28 of 34), Nikita Kucherov (26 of 32) and Jason Robertson (28 of 35).

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Taking a look at the Individual Points Percentages that are notable across the league, we can mine for potential. IPP is useful in finding players on the third line who are performing too well for that line and deserve looks in the top six. That means – there is potential for those players to have a strong second half as the coach starts to recognize and reward their talent. I go over advanced stats in articles here and here, if you want to brush up on the IPP. A player on the first line is going to likely be an established star. The better ones will have an IPP of 75% or higher, but there is flexibility there. However, if you see a top-liner with an IPP of say 40%, there would be some concern that said player loses his spot on that big line.

On the flip side, as noted already, if a player is on the third line and putting a high IPP, it indicates that he is by far and away the driver on that line. When goals are scored while his line is out there, he is playing a major part in those goals.

For example, Derek Ryan has an even-strength IPP of 100% for the Oilers. He is on their fourth line and the line has scored nine points with him out there. He has five goals and four assists – in on all nine of those points. If Ryan was 20 years old, I'd earmark him straight away as a potential for promotion to the second line and a stronger second half. But he's 35. Still, he's clearly capable of handling a bump the third line and getting the chance to chip in some more offense.

Check out the IPP report here.

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Now let's get to it. I'll check out the ES IPP for interesting observations:

Mason McTavish – The IPP for McTavish really drills home what we want to see. His overall IPP is 80%, indicating that he's a little too good for the players he is generally out there alongside. However, his PPIPP is 69.2%, which tells us that the PP unit he is with is about right. His ESIPP is 91.7%, which is nuts. At evens, he is out there mostly with Brett Leason and Max Jones, so – duh. Of course he's going to be the catalyst when it comes to those guys. But on the PP, he is mostly out there with Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry. The moment this guy gets ES ice time with quality linemates, watch out.

Juraj Slafkovsky – His IPP is 90.9% overall and he's been in on 100% of the PP goals scored when he's out there (a total of two, but still…). Slafkovsky's linemates have been mostly Jake Evans and Josh Anderson. Yeah. Now, as a bigger forward, he is probably going to take a couple of years before finding his true mojo. But this indicates that he is ready to at least post at a 50-point pace if he would ever get placed on one of the big lines. But perhaps the Habs see what has happened with Jesse Puljujarvi when the Oilers push him alongside Connor McDavid, and they don't want that kind of pressure on their 18-year-old stud.

Kent Johnson – Johnson's ESIPP is 85.7% says that he's not playing with strong enough players. Or, more accurately, when the team scores with him out there, he has the goal or an assist 85.7% of the time, which is abnormally high. It implies that he's doing most of the legwork. But his top linemates are: Jakub Voracek, Jack Roslovic, Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. In that order. He is also seeing plenty of time lately with Cole Sillinger and Kirill Marchenko. Perhaps it's when he is on the non-Gaudreau lines that his IPP starts ticking upwards – the data, unfortunately, doesn't break it down like that. Either way, his future looks very bright.

Yegor Sharangovich – With an IPP of 85%, you can immediately see that he is the key cog on his line and probably assume that he can play on a better line. The fact that his linemates are actually not too bad (usually Jesper Boqvist and either Dawson Mercer or Alexander Holtz) tells me that he could probably complement the top line. He did it last season and posted 46 points – he could easily build on that number.

Cody Glass – An IPP of 80% (77.8% at ES) indicates that he deserves a promotion. Nino Niederreiter, Tanner Jeannot, Eeli Tolvanen and Cole Smith are his top-used linemates. On the plus side, his ice time is climbing bit by bit, so he'll get his break soon enough.

Sonny Milano – Milano is playing with pretty good linemates consisting mainly of Evgeny Kuznetsov. Milano's 75% ESIPP tells us he's not just along for the ride – he's been a key part of the offense created at even strength. With Tom Wilson on the verge of returning, Milano will take a step backward before he takes a step forward. But he's certainly earned more ice time.

Jesse Puljujarvi – Here is an example of a solid player according to the metrics. But in using other factors involved in the situation, we know we can't really trust when that big turnaround will happen – if it ever does. He's earned the promotion, but we know that he probably squeezes his stick too hard when he's playing with McDavid. It's at the point now where the coach doesn't even bother anymore. Puljujarvi makes things happen when he's on the ice, driving possession. But – at least for now – he needs to be the top dog on his line. His ESIPP is 72.7% playing mostly with Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod. But on the power play with some of the top guns he has a PPIPP of 0%. So when you see a positive indicator like Puljujarvi's ESIPP, do a little research and find out some background. It will help keep you grounded.

Jonatan Berggren – Berggren has a 71.4% ESIPP playing mostly with Joe Veleno. He's a driver on that line for sure, and deserves a look on a better line. He's a master setup man and in future seasons I think we'll see this at the NHL level.

And now let's look at some of the 'bad' ES IPP indicators…

Kirby Dach – A big player at 6-4 and a former third-overall draft pick, Dach is having a career year alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. But does he belong there right now? He's only 21 and generally a 6-4 player comes into his own later (already noted above with Puljujarvi and Slafkovsky). Dach's ESIPP is 51.9%, which means that his linemates are passing pucks back and forth to each other and potting the goals – often leaving him out of it.

Joe Pavelski – This name jumped out at me. Is he finally slowing down at 39? Playing with one of the top offensive players in the NHL (Jason Robertson) could conceivably prop his numbers up like this. Pavelski's ESIPP is just 50%! And even on the power play, it's at just 52.2% despite his having 12 PPPts. He's compiling a lot of points, but the players around him are producing even more. I would be very wary of acquiring this guy. He has just five points in his last 10 games, too.

Sam Steel – As good as Steel has been on the Kirill Kaprizov line, especially lately, no matter how well he does he'll never be nearly as good as Kaprizov. His 48% IPP at even strength is starting to rise, but it will probably never be at a level that keeps up with the stars on his line.

Kailer Yamamoto – His ESIPP is just 46.7% playing with the likes of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Matias Janmark and before that – Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane. He's not keeping up with those guys and I can't help but wonder if he was rushing into the NHL. He has certainly been stunted in his development by injuries. Yamamoto is 24 years old now and has crossed his 200-game Breakout Threshold. It's time for him to become a bigger part of the offense when he's out there, but his IPP is saying he should be demoted to the third line or worse.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Still only 22, Kotkaniemi has just a 46.2% ESIPP playing mostly with either Martin Necas/Andrei Svechnikov… or Teuvo Teravainen/Seth Jarvis. Those are great linemates, and they're putting points on the board without Kotkaniemi's help right now.

Artturi Lehkonen – No surprise seeing Lehkonen's name here. His main linemates have been Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen – so of course he's going to be less a part of their magic when they get going. He'll still get tons of points on that line, but many of them will be by accident. His ESIPP is 45%.

Keep in mind that these are statistics. And we are only 35 games into the season. That's a small sample size. If any of the above players have two great games and are in on five out of five goals that their line scores – suddenly that 45% turns into a palatable 60% just like that. And on the flip side, if a player gets promoted to the second line and that line picks up three points that he doesn't get a point on – his 80% slips to 70% in an awful hurry. These should be only used as indicators, and taken with whatever logic you and fill in around it such as age, linemates, his role, etc.

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My thrice-rescheduled meeting with Ontario's Minister of Finance, Peter Bethlenfalvy, took place last Monday. I presented my case for changes to the sports wagering laws in an effort to break the DFS portion of that law into its own category, or amend the law along the same vein. Details:

Had a meeting today with Ontario's Minister of Finance Peter Bethlenfalvy regarding the new sports wager laws in the province, and how #DFS is included under the same blanket.
Overall, a very positive discussion.

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— Dobber (@DobberHockey) December 19, 2022

The hope here is to treat Daily Fantasy Sports separately from sports gambling. That means revisiting the liquidity issue, adjusting the fees and tax rates, etc. Eventually bring #DraftKings and #FanDuel DFS back to the province.

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— Dobber (@DobberHockey) December 19, 2022

Mr. Bethlenfalvy remembered me from a meeting we had several years ago. He also knows my wife, who is in the government sector.

(It also helps that one of his assistants is a regular DobberHockey reader and user of the tools!)

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— Dobber (@DobberHockey) December 19, 2022

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See you next Monday.