It seemed to be a matter of when, not if, Vancouver would be trading centre Bo Horvat. That trade went down Monday as he was sent to the New York Islanders in exchange for young winger Aatu Räty, winger Anthony Beauvillier, and a first-round pick in 2023. Dobber had a breakdown of the trade here.

This is a big deal so I'll give my full thoughts in Thursday's Ramblings (there's not much hockey this week). For now, I'll say I think this is fine for both sides and now the pressure is on New York to get to the postseason.

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As of Monday afternoon, Buffalo was one point out of a playoff spot, just behind Pittsburgh, and only two points behind Washington with three games in hand. They can ill-afford injuries to key players, which is why it was good to see Dylan Cozens and Mattias Samuelsson on the ice for their practice on Monday:

#Sabres just starting practice downtown — and Cozens and Samuelsson are both here. pic.twitter.com/Rk49hitcEg

— Mike Harrington (@ByMHarrington) January 30, 2023

There was concern about a concussion for Cozens and those can be career-derailing, so it's great to see him on the ice for the Sabres. The team is at home to Carolina on Wednesday before taking 10 days off for their All-Star break.

Tage Thompson was not on the ice for practice and is considered day-to-day. He was on the bench in street clothes, though, so it doesn’t seem anything serious.

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Remember that teams are now on their All-Star break/bye so the NHL scheduled has lightened considerably. I wrote about what this means for fantasy owners last week while Andrew Santillo went much more in depth on this for his 'Looking Ahead' column. Check those out if you're looking at what to do for the next couple weeks in your fantasy leagues.  

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Thomas Chabot was not practicing for Ottawa on Monday:

There's no Thomas Chabot on the ice #Sens He left with what appeared to be a back issue Saturday but then returned to finish the game.

— Bruce Garrioch (@SunGarrioch) January 30, 2023

He is still expected to play on Tuesday in Montreal.

Artem Zub was practicing but something to monitor for the near-term.

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Robert Thomas was not in the St. Louis lineup on Monday night:

#stlblues projected lineup vs. Winnipeg tonight, per Blues:

Saad-Schenn-Kyrou
Barbashev-Acciari-Tarasenko
Neighbours-Brown-Leivo
Toropchenko-Alexandrov-Pitlick

Leddy-Parayko
Krug-Faulk
Mikkola-Bortuzzo

Binnington

* Optional skate today, so there could be changes.

— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) January 30, 2023

He skated very briefly at the optional skate, talked with the coaches, and went off the ice. Following that away game last night against Winnipeg, the team is off for 12 days so giving Thomas the extra time to heal makes sense.

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Things are very slow in the NHL right now and will be for another week. This feels like the couple weeks before Christmas 2021 when the NHL was cancelling games left and right, leaving us with maybe a few games each day for a while. That is a feeling I was looking forward to never experiencing again.

Anyway, I thought it'd be worth looking at changes in performance. There are three indicators to look for: ice time change, shot rate change (iCF/60) and individual expected goal change (ixG/60). With teams somewhere in the 48- to 52-game range, it gives us a neat cut-off for being so close to the two-thirds mark by looking from December 2^nd and earlier compared to December 3^rd and onward. Let's look at some of the biggest risers and fallers in the areas mentioned with data at all strengths from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick. We are going to limit ourselves to players with at least 200 minutes on each side of our sample, to at least try and reduce the noise.

5ebastian Aho (D) Skating More

The other Sebastian Aho – sometimes known as 5ebastian Aho – is quietly on the rise for the New York Islanders on their blue line. It has been a slog for him as he first appeared in the NHL way back in 2017 (seriously!) but had just 61 regular season games to his name heading into the 2022-23 campaign. He has been skating 19:13 a game over his last 25 games, posting seven points and 38 shots in that span. That is thanks to having one of the largest TOI increases over the last couple of months due to the injuries on the Islanders blue line. The problem is the team is allergic to scoring so the production hasn't been stout. It is good news for his future, though.  

Matt Boldy Shot Rise

The $49M-dollar man from Minnesota isn't very far off from his rookie effort. He has 16 goals and 20 assists in 48 games this season compared to 15 goals and 24 assists in 47 games a year ago. He has seen a big shooting rise, though, as he's sitting just shy of 3.1 per game on the campaign. Part of this is due to a large shot rate increase of late: the fourth-most shot attempts per 60 minutes over the last eight weeks, trailing only David Pastrnak, Alex Ovechkin, and Timo Meier. Unfortunately, he's shooting 8% in that span, so it's worked out to just seven goals in 26 games. Imagine what he could do if he weren't playing with checking-line forwards?

Kevin Fiala Shooting Again

Kevin Fiala is on pace for 27 goals and 82 points, but it sure doesn't feel like it sometimes. His 2.7 shots per game through his first 26 games would have been a four-year low for him had it persisted. Of course, it isn't persisting, and he has the 10^th-largest shot rate increase in this sample, ranking just outside the top-20 forwards overall. He is managing 3.5 shots per game over his last 26 contests but is shooting under 10% in that span. Imagine if this guy could get back to the 12-13% he was posting in Minnesota? He could finish the year with 30 goals and 90 points.  

Aleksander Barkov Down Across The Board, Kind Of

It's funny how fantasy hockey works sometimes. Aleksander Barkov played 19 games in the first half of the sample, posting 18 points, landing 3.4 shots per game, and was skating 22:42 per contest. He has seen some injuries since, but he's down to 20:19 per game over his last 23 games, falling all the way to 2.2 shots per game. And yet, Barkov has nine goals and 29 points in those 23 games, wildly outproducing the other half of this comparison. It is a nice reminder that percentages rule the game and we're still at the mercy of randomness.

Blake Coleman Up Across The Board

At the other end of the spectrum is a winger who has seen across-the-board increases in the areas we're discussing. Over the last two months-ish, Blake Coleman has seen the second-largest increase in shot attempt rate, the largest increase in individual expected goals, and has added nearly a minute to his TOI/game rate. He has seven goals and 14 points in his last 27 games, averaging 2.8 shots per game and landing 22 hits. Coleman is one-third of a formidable third line but one of his fantasy calling cards – lots of hits – isn't something that's part of his profile this year.

Barrett Hayton's New Groove

Thanks to some injuries and underperformance, Barrett Hayton has been skating on the top line for Arizona for a few weeks now. Obviously, this has helped him grow his ice time and shot rates as he's seen increases across the board. He has 12 points in his last 18 games dating back to Christmas, with six goals on 43 shots mixed in there. If he can be a permanent fixture of the top line, then Arizona just needs to worry about filling out around them. Though it's also fair to wonder if this is really a long-term solution.

Jake Guentzel's Lowered Expectations

It is hard to make heads or tails of the Penguins. Sometimes, they look like genuine Cup contenders. Other times, they look like the 10^th-best team in the East. Jake Guentzel has mirrored that divide for the Penguins as he posted 12 goals and 23 points in his first 20 games, averaging 3.1 shots per game, but has eight tallies and 23 points in his last 25 outings, averaging 2.5 shots per game. He has seen the second-largest drop by ixG/60 (only Dawson Mercer has dropped more), producing 23% fewer total expected goals in the second sample despite an extra five games played. Injuries on the blue line may have played a factor but he, and the rest of the team, need to turn around their play in a hurry.

Jason Robertson ixG

One of the quieter declines of late has to be Jason Robertson's. The first portion of the sample saw him with 22 goals and 39 points in 24 games, landing 4.3 shots per game. He has still been good of late, but 11 goals and 27 points in his last 27 contests, landing 3.5 shots per outing, is a huge decline from what he had been doing. The splits have given him the fourth-largest drop by ixG/60 compared to earlier in the season, dropping from fourth in the league to tied for 78^th. He doesn't need to pace for over 70 goals, but a rebound from here on out would be nice to see for himself, the Stars, and fantasy owners alike.

Tage Thompson Shooting

On the topic of shot drops, everyone's favourite Very Large Centre has seen the fourth-largest decrease in shot attempt rate over the last eight weeks, and ninth-largest ixG/60 drop. Even as he's started to slide of late, he still has 13 points and over three shots per game in his last 13 contests. If that is a downturn, it speaks to the upside he still has. However, we should note that Buffalo moved Jeff Skinner of his line in their last game as the coach starts to prioritize the postseason. Thompson should still be very good but part of what made him elite was having two great wingers. Something to keep an eye on.

Gabriel Vilardi's Rollercoaster

It has been a precipitous drop for Gabriel Vilardi, who has four goals and 12 points in his last 20 games, managing a shade over 1.5 shots per night. He has seen the ninth-largest declines by iCF/60 and ixG/60 in the second half of our sample, losing nearly a minute of TOI per game. He has been injured of late, so maybe he was playing through an injury before that, but he's certainly hit some sort of wall. Now, if he can be a 15-goal, 50-point middle-6 forward, that is still a good player, but he looked to be at a higher level earlier in the year. We'll see after the All-Star break if he can regain that earlier form.

Damon Severson TOI

The largest ice-time increase between our two samples is from New Jersey's Damon Severson, adding over six full minutes per game to his repertoire. It hasn't led to much shots-wise, but has helped his production, even if it is still meagre with nine points in 24 games. Curiously enough, the Devils are 22^nd in the league by expected goal share at 5-on-5 in that latest span, worse than teams like Nashville and Ottawa. Correlation does not equal causation, but they are a team to monitor for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is how they treat their pending free agent blue liner.

Josh Anderson

The fifth-largest ice-time increase among forwards in this sample belongs to Montreal's Josh Anderson, adding over 2:30 per game as the team has endured a lot of injuries. Looking more recently, he has skated at least 17:30 in six straight contests, at least 18:00 in four straight, and averaged 19:02 over his those last half-dozen appearances. He has 23 hits in his last four outings and more ice time could mean a 25-goal/82-game pace with a pile of hits. Anderson is someone to keep in mind for multi-cat leagues, even on a team that is inept offensively.

Tony DeAngelo TOI

There are a bunch of defencemen with large TOI decreases, notably some Arizona rearguards as they've often skated 11-7 over the last several weeks. Tony DeAngelo has the eighth-largest decrease overall, losing three and a half minutes per game. He has still been very productive, though, with 19 points in 23 contests over this second sample, with four points in his last four games. The Flyers aren't an awful team and for all his flaws as a defenceman, DeAngelo is a very good puck mover so he shouldn't be dumped in the fantasy game unless plus/minus is a big factor.