Ramblings: Dahlin to ASG, Thompson Injury, More on Horvat Trade (Feb 3)
Ian Gooding
2023-02-03
Although Sunday through Wednesday featured a very light schedule, Thursday was the first day without any games, signifying the first day of the All-Star break. If you're into the All-Star Game itself or the skills competition or any of the other festivities, enjoy. If anything All-Star is not your bag, then use the time to catch up on other non-hockey related interests. Or get those chores done you've been putting off! After you read the Ramblings, of course…
After being held back because of the constraints of naming players to rosters, Rasmus Dahlin was finally named to the All-Star Game. Tage Thompson's upper-body injury cleared the way for Dahlin, who is having a monster season with a career high in points (55) in just 49 games so far. Only Erik Karlsson has more points than Dahlin, who will no doubt receive some Norris Trophy consideration this season. It seems like a joke that Dahlin would not be included in the league's showcase event with those numbers. Yet when every team has to be included and two teams have been split into four teams to accommodate divisions, squeezing him in wasn't so easy.
Of course, there should be concern about Thompson, but his injury is not expected to be long term. The Sabres are on their "bye week" after the All-Star Game, which means they don't play again until next Saturday (February 11). That should give Thompson plenty of time to rest the injury if it is truly minor. That being said, weekly leaguers may want to err on the side of caution and leave Thompson on the bench next week, even though that might be tough to do given his production this season. If possible, check for injury updates, which you can find on the Dobber News Twitter feed and Injury Ward article on Wednesdays.
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The NHL trade deadline is still one month away (March 3), but the recent trade by the Canucks and Islanders might spark some other trades to be consummated by the end of February. We have some time to digest what happened and what it means, so here's my take on what will happen with two of the key principals: Bo Horvat and Anthony Beauvillier.
I'm in agreement with the analysis that the New York Islanders might be one of the worst places for Horvat's fantasy value, as mentioned in the Fantasy Take. The Islanders are known as a defensive-minded outfit, currently in the bottom third in the league with under three goals per game. Barry Trotz is no longer coaching the Isles, but his fingerprints are still all over this roster.
Yet one silver lining is that Horvat should get to be the guy on Long Island. In fact, word is that Mathew Barzal will be moved to the wing to create a true first line for the Isles. In Vancouver, Horvat was often on the second line behind Elias Pettersson and would even get pushed down to the third line when J.T. Miller was used as a center. That might not have been the case in a place like Boston or Carolina, as those teams already boast considerable depth as playoff teams and might even try to take advantage of Horvat's defensive strengths to a significant degree.
In that regard, Horvat has never been a 50%+ OZ start player in any of his nine NHL seasons. He has been a 48 OZ% player this season, which was considerably higher than the 39-43% that he averaged over the previous four seasons. In contract, is a sky-high 77.6 OZ% player this season and hasn't been below 59 OZ% over his last four seasons. It's probably not a huge deal over half a season, but it's something that could matter should Horvat choose to sign a long-term deal with the Isles.
It's easy to suggest that Horvat will regress for the Islanders, but the fact was that he already has been on that path. He has finished his time with the Canucks with just one goal in his past seven games after scoring 30 in his first 42 games. (It should be mentioned that Horvat assisted on four goals in what turned out to be his final game with the Canucks.) The 21.7 SH% has also been brought up as a reason that the goals won't come as easily going forward, as will a 10.9 5-on-5 SH% and 3.2 PTS/60. He's a sell-high now if you can, but you were probably better off trying that last week without knowing where he would be moved.
With the addition of Horvat, expect Jean-Gabriel Pageau to be moved off the first-unit power play. That being said, I'd hardly consider that a reason to drop Pageau, who is a Swiss army knife-type player in multicategory leagues. Pageau is in the top-20 in hits in the entire league, with Brady Tkachuk being the only player that has more hits and more points than Pageau. In addition, Pageau is fifth in the league in both total faceoffs (1014) and faceoffs won (571), and he's been over 50% in faceoffs won for the past eight seasons (56.3% this season).
In contrast, I absolutely love this trade for Beauvillier's fantasy value. You can dunk on the Canucks for a million different reasons for how they've stumbled both on and off the ice, but at least they've been a reliable source of fantasy value in the scoring department. They're a top-10 offense and a middle-of-the-pack power play that seems capable of even more. With Horvat departed and both Tanner Pearson and Ilya Mikheyev also out for the season, Beauvillier should have room to be slotted in on a scoring line. He's only 2 percent rostered in Yahoo and 18 percent rostered in Fantrax right now, but I'd expect those numbers to climb.
One caveat: I'd like this trade even more if Bruce Boudreau were still the head coach. If Rick Tocchet is trying to establish a certain identity on the Canucks, then I don't know that Beauvillier fits that profile. That being said, Phil Kessel isn't the most physical player, and he and Tocchet reportedly connected. Beauvillier was in desperate need of a fresh start, and there seems to be a real opportunity in Vancouver.
One ripple of this trade will be who takes Horvat's spot on the first-unit power play. Miller will probably take the faceoffs, while one of Beauvillier, Brock Boeser, or even Conor Garland could fill that first-unit spot. I have a feeling Boeser will get that spot back, since he's had some success there in the past and he's sometimes been used on PP1 this season. Yet because the Canucks will likely be playing out the string (referred to as another death march here in Vancouver), Beauvillier will likely receive his cuts on the first unit. At the very least, expect him to break the goose egg that currently sits in the PPP box of his statline.
Coincidentally, both Boeser and Garland are on the trade block at the moment. The Canucks are top-heavy with salary at the wing position, especially after the Andrei Kuzmenko extension, so trading one of Boeser or Garland could make sense if the Canucks are serious about making major changes.
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