Ramblings: Thoughts on Marchenko, Markstrom, Nichushkin, Huberdeau, Lafreniere, Zadina, Brannstrom, and more … (Feb. 05)

Dobber

2023-02-06

The 15th annual Midseason Guide was released three weeks ago. Pick it up here! Second-half projections, prospects, free agents, trade block, advanced statistical analysis and more! This is probably only relevant for a couple more days, now that the All-Star Break is wrapping up, so gobble up the information while you can!

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Bo Horvat has signed an extension with the Islanders. If the last 10 years have told us anything, it's that a player's upside is severely limited on the Island. So Horvat's dynasty owners are cringing.

The deal is for the maximum eight years at $8.5 per year and a full no-trade clause in the first half and a 16-team no-trade clause in the latter half. My breakdown of the Horvat trade and fantasy implications here.

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Minor trade: San Jose has traded D Jaycob Megna to Seattle for a 2023 4th round draft pick. A bit of an overpay, if you ask me, but Seattle is starting to gear up to take this playoff run seriously (as they should).

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Filip Zadina has finished his two-game conditioning stint with Grand Rapids and has been recalled by the Red Wings. They also recalled Jonatan Berggren, and sent down Adam Erne to make room. Meaning – Berggren has stolen Erne's job. Curious to see if Berggren and Zadina play together. Zadina is a sniper and Berggren is an elite setup man. Berggren has been playing on the third line for Detroit – and so was Zadina, prior to his getting injured. Zadina needs a good setup man to help him reach his potential. This is a situation to watch.

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I'll be surprised if Joel Hofer (St. Louis) doesn't get a look. And at the rate Jordan Binnington is stumbling, Hofer could take over as starter by the end of next season. But to do that, he'll need to be the backup next year. And to do that, he'll need to impress in the NHL at some point in the second half.

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Absolutely not. If it's a dynasty, that means you keep your entire team. You don't drop goalies who are owed another $18M after this year because of one bad season, when his track record is so solid the four prior years. I think Markstrom bounces back next season. Goalies are super fickle.

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I do, but he needs a good seven to 10 games to get his rhythm back. He has missed significant time due to ankle surgery and more recently an upper-body injury. The luck metrics indicate a market correction (more points) should be coming, and his hefty contract will see to it that he gets every opportunity to make that happen.

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I would drop Hoglander. I like the upside of the other three better. Rasmussen is a 6-6 forward just starting to find his way (has 14 points in last 18 games, too).

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In the latest dynasty rankings, Huberdeau finally took a big fall as I (finally) made adjustments to his upside and 3YP. I had been giving him time to adjust to the new coaching system and teammates, but time hasn't seemed to make much of a difference. I think he finishes at a 70-point pace going forward (season-to-date pace is a 58-point pace), and then next year I see him at a point-per-game. Unfortunately, barring a coaching change, I think his 100-point days are behind him. Then again, if Calgary misses the playoffs, will said coaching change happen?

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All I could find on this is that he is indeed injured, and it happened just before Christmas. Unsure the nature of the injury.

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No, his shooting percentage is pretty ridiculous (25%). He'll start getting assists, though (but that's inevitable since he has zero so far). I think he sticks with the big club and finishes with about 20 goals and seven or eight assists.

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I don't think it's worth the move, as Hart faces a ton of shots. You can compare the two here.

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I would bet a lot of money on this happening again, and be comfortable doing it.

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I would keep Zegras, although Hischier will probably beat him next season. I think Zegras starts winning in the ensuing seasons and I think his upside is higher.

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I still consider him an elite own and I think the timing is okay. Myself, I would wait a couple of weeks for him to go on another heater (he always does).

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Cody Glass I can see settling in as a top-producing power forward who gets injured a lot. But in between injuries he could be a mid-50s player in terms of points. Too risky for my blood, I like reliable healthy guys.

Philip Tomasino should be a solid two-way center on the second line, likely getting 50s and 60s for points once he gets going. But in his late 20s I can see him popping for a lot more, likely catching all of us off guard after we had written him off as a consistent 60-point player.

I wouldn't be shocked if Gibson was dealt, but I don't think very highly of his skills anymore. For whatever reason, his confidence has eroded and I'm not sure teams are dying to acquire him. But I wonder if the Kraken would be interested…or perhaps Chicago may look to land a potential goalie to carry them through their rebuild. The teams most in need of a goalie are already in California (San Jose, Los Angeles) and I doubt they trade him to those teams.

As for the Rangers' Kid Line – I just get the feeling that those three are getting super close. They are showing lots of signs this year. Is one more year enough time? Chytil seems like he's closest, and then Kakko.

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Yes he does, and if his keeper-league owner is wavering on this – swoop in. It's worth noting that Lafreniere's first two seasons were fairly close to what Jack Hughes did in his first two seasons. Hughes, of course, then dominated in Year 3 and we're still waiting for that from Alexis. But then again, Lafreniere has a ton of talent ahead of him, allowing the Rangers to be patient with him. Whereas the Devils had no such depth last year, thus forcing them to push Hughes to reach his potential right away.

As for Norris – regardless of what number you put on the line, I think he still gets one of Drake Batherson or Brady Tkachuk, or both, to play with. So it really doesn't matter. But Stutzle's upside is higher. Think of it this way: with Norris, you wonder who he gets to have on his line. With Stutzle, you wonder who gets to play with him. Stutzle is the driver.

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I don't overly understand the nuances of this question, but I think DeBrincat remains in Ottawa for at least two more seasons. His next contract will be very interesting. And as for the Rangers getting forward help – I don't think they need it. I think the kids that they have will take another step forward (perhaps more than just one step!). All this being said, I would prefer Panarin as the player you keep.

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I would do this.

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No, but this is an interesting thought.

I do try to leverage my overall fantasy hockey knowledge (and our DFS tools) to win daily fantasy contests. If anyone is interested in challenging me, I compete over at OwnersBox under an obvious name and logo.

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Yep. I'm sold. Although, as a big (huge) player, I do worry that his shelf life is shorter than most superstars. As in – maybe just three or four years and then a quick dropoff. That being said, he doesn't play the gritty power game that tends to wear down the big men so maybe this won't happen.

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I absolutely see this. At least for a dozen games or so. The Canucks will want to see what they have here, and we all know Beauvillier has untapped upside. They're gonna want to try to tap into it. And if they can get him going then they make the trade look brilliant (similar to when they acquired JT Miller – they'd love Beauvillier to make them look as good as Miller made them look).

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I think they have that upside and I believe they'll both hit it. Give Lafreniere three years and give Byfield five.

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I would kick tires on them now. Especially after a Kane trade. I think as the deadline approaches you can still get great value for them.

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I think the likelihood is zero, barring another injury to Freddie Andersen. But Kochetkov has shown enough to earn the 1B job next season (and he'll likely takeover the starting gig by midseason).

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It depends on expectations. I like how Colorado saved Ryan Graves career, and although Graves wasn't what we had hoped for early on, he still ended up having fantasy value. So perhaps they can get Ryan Merkley going.

Erik Brannstrom, to me, needs a new start somewhere else. His upside is still very high, but he's shown us Jack and Squat so far. His pedigree (15th overall pick, centerpiece of Mark Stone trade) makes it difficult to give up on him – for both NHL teams and fantasy GMs.

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I think so, but with limited upside. He won't be a 70-point stud, but I think he can be a solid 50-point guy or a power forward who complements a star and gets even more.

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I'm okay with giving him a Mulligan for this season. I consider him a heavy 'buy low' player with 100-point potential.

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I have his upside at low 90s. As long-time readers know, my upsides are quite liberal. As to me, the word "upside" is truly a best-case number. So the best health, the best linemates, the prime of his career. Lucas Raymond should be a point-per-game player, but I think in his prime and with the right coaching system, he can achieve 90 in a few years.

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See you next Monday.

2 Comments

  1. Christopher 2023-02-06 at 08:14

    Hi Dobber! What are your thoughts about the Drysdale vs Zellweger vs Mintyukov situation? The question was asked (from@pahlsson26) but skipped! Who is the better own and what are their upsides and wait times? How do you see their PP situations playing out in the future?

  2. Marshall Thompson 2023-02-06 at 15:06

    IDK about Eichel….major back surgery and production drops, I’d wait for a streak and offload the guy.

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