Ramblings: Thoughts on Harvey-Pinard, the Tolvanen/Bjorkstrand Combo, Grubauer, Tippett and more … (Feb. 12)

Dobber

2023-02-13

It's worth noting that the only two teams that were fresh – i.e., they were not on the tail-end of a back-to-back situation – both won their games. All of Sunday's losses were by teams playing for the second day in a row.

The Oilers gave Stuart Skinner the start, which was expected because Jack Campbell played on Saturday. Campbell has a long-term contract and a pretty big one (four more years at $5M AAV) and so the Oilers have a lot invested in him as their No.1. So even though he's been terrible this year, they'll keep throwing him out there. And lately – he's actually been decent? Since January 11, in eight games Campbell is 8-0-0 with a 2.39 GAA and 0.917 SV%. Half of those have been Quality Starts. In today's NHL, a 0.917 SV% is upper-tier (he would rank 13th among goaltenders who have played at least 12 games).

Skinner gave up six goals on 30 shots. Because he's playing only sporadically now, Skinner's numbers are slowly falling. In that same span (since January 11), in four games Skinner is 1-1-2 with a 2.92 GAA and 0.902 SV%.

If Campbell is even remotely good down the stretch, he's Edmonton's playoff starter. And right now he is far better than "remotely good" so it's a certainty, barring a serious implosion.

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The Oilers got hammered despite enjoying a ridiculous amount of PP time. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman were out there on the PP for 8:17.

Evan Bouchard saw more PP time (5:42) than Tyson Barrie (4:39). Bouchard tallied a pair of assists while Barrie saw a goose egg. Given that Barrie hasn't done much over the past few weeks, this is a situation worth watching. Both players tend to be streaky, perhaps Bouchard is starting another one.

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Rafael Harvey-Pinard continues to take full advantage of Montreal's decimated lineup. Right now this is pretty much a glorified tryout for fringe players. So Alex Belzile, Harvey-Pinard and Michael Pezzetta are looking to make enough of a mark to stick next season. Harvey-Pinard is a seventh-round draft pick from 2019. Those picks are generally the 'roll-the-dice' picks, and more often than not they don't work out. And more often than not they get very little chance to succeed. Why call up the seventh-rounder when there is a second-rounder or first-rounder you want to look at more? But Harvey-Pinard, who is 24 and stands at just 5-9, gets his shot because there are so many key injuries to the lineup. Playing on a line with Nick Suzuki, Harvey-Pinard has six goals and eight points in nine games, including a goal Sunday. Smaller players either get drafted very high because they are far too good to ignore…or they sink to the late rounds even though their skill level is second- or third-round caliber. These players then need to work twice as hard to get half the respect. It takes them longer to adapt to the pro game, and if they make it to the NHL you often won't see them until they are in their mid-20s. And those that become stars won't reach that level until they are 27 or 28. If Harvey-Pinard can make enough of a mark over the next two months, he would be one to watch out for next season. But there are so many obstacles stacked against players like this, and the most likely scenario is a career like what we're seeing with Vinnie Hinostroza.

Belzile, who also scored, is in a different situation. He is 31 years old and these have been the first seven games of his NHL career. Sunday he scored his first NHL goal:

He has five points in seven games, and is playing for a contract next year – looking to land a depth role with any team next season. He once had 70 assists in the QMJHL (2011-12).

As for Pezzetta, the 24-year-old former sixth-rounder (2016) has been fighting to stay in the lineup for two seasons now. This is his chance to stick for a prolonged period of time and show that he can be a regular on the checking line.

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Eeli Tolvanen has now dressed for 19 games with Seattle and he's really forming some nice chemistry with Oliver Bjorkstrand. Bjorkstrand is a very skilled player with tremendous upside, but has disappointed us with only teasing glimpses of it to date. And upon arriving in Seattle, he's been a glorified 40-point player offensively, and one of the better defensive players and possession drivers. Tolvanen seems to be changing this. Bjorkstrand hadn't been able to find chemistry with anyone, so Tolvanen's arrival happened at a great time. In those 19 games, Tolvanen has 12 points while Bjorkstrand has 13. Neither number is eye-popping. Yet. But this is much better than what Bjorkstrand was doing before, and they seem to be getting better with time.

Since the turning of the calendar, here are the numbers for the Seattle goaltenders:

Philipp Grubauer: 3-2-1, 1.98 GAA, 0.925 SV%, 83.3 QS%, 3.040 GSAA

Martin Jones: 9-4-0, 2.62 GAA, 0.903 SV%, 46.2 QS%, -1.006 GSAA

Grubauer has clearly been the better goalie and the team is now back to trusting him every second game. But down the stretch I can see them giving Grubauer the bulk of the starts if he continues to play this well.

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With two goals on Sunday, Owen Tippett hit the 30-point mark for the first time in his career with 27 games left to play. If he plays all 27, he will have played 192 in his career. That makes next year a prime candidate for his breakout. There is still plenty of untapped upside here, and the time to strike is now or possibly this summer.

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Erik Karlsson had yet another three-point game on Sunday, giving him 73 on the season. That matches the third-highest total of his career. He still has 28 games left to play. His full-season pace right now is 111 points.

Kevin Labanc is again a healthy scratch. He has been out for eight of San Jose's last 10 games. He needs a fresh start nearly as bad as Anthony Beauvillier did.

Meanwhile, Alexander Barabanov has seven points in his last four games thanks to a two-point output on Sunday. His production has gone up like a fantasy hockey statistician's dream: 0.36 points-per-game in his first season, 0.56 last year and 0.71 in 2022-23. The latter is a 59-point full-season pace, and he doesn't seem to be slowing.

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Alex Ovechkin has just three goals and six points in his last 13 games.

Both Dylan Strome and Sonny Milano were benched for much of the second period. Strome has not been the same since Nicklas Backstrom returned to the lineup. This will often happen when a player is enjoying a good season and then a bigger name returns from injury. Yes, Strome owners should be worried – at least for the second half of this season.

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The Vegas-Anaheim game was a low-scoring affair…until they scored six in the third period. Fortunately for Adin Hill (and his fantasy owners), just one of those was from the Ducks. It was the first game since Logan Thompson's injury and all eyes were on Hill. He stopped 23 of 25, earning himself a Quality Start. While Laurent Brossoit will see his share of action, it will be Hill seeing the bulk of the workload – the Knights are in a playoff race.

Will Carrier continues his torrid pace by scoring twice. He's playing with Phil Kessel and Chandler Stephenson. The points give him eight points in his last seven games – and those points also gave him a career high (22).

Kessel also had two points, and he now has 11 in his last 14. This hot run is important because it was looking as if he wouldn't make it to 1000 career points. Before these 14 games, he was on pace for 28 points. If he ended the season with 28, I'd question whether he could get into a lineup enough next year to get the 16 points he would have needed. Now he's at 25 on the season already, and 981 in his career – 1000 is inevitable.

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Speaking of goaltender injuries, Ottawa's Anton Forsberg tore his MCL in both knees. He will be out indefinitely. With Cam Talbot not back for week or two yet, the Sens will be leaning on Mads Sogaard. Next in line – Kevin Mandolese.

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See you next Monday.

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Mar 29 - 19:03 BUF vs N.J

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