This week on Frozen Tool Forensics we are going to be focusing on even strength production, and more specifically the production of individual lines. While it usually takes power-play deployment to put up superstar numbers, solid even-strength production creates the baseline. Players with strong even strength production are valuable as they are putting up production at the most common play state, but also have the potential to jump leaps and bounds when/if they get access to a top power-play.

For process this week we are pulling a report titled Top EV Line. To further filter, I used the drop-down menus on the reports page to pull only forwards and to adjust the time frame. For the purposes of this article, I am focusing on line performances since the new year, so a bit over a month's worth of action.

One slight caveat with this report format; if a line has been inconsistently deployed, they won't show as highly on this list. For example, a line that has generally consisted of a pair and a shuffled third wheel might be listed here several times. Luckily for us there has been a lot of stability in these reasonably successful lines.

The table below is pretty self-explanatory. We see the player names and the team, and then total goals for and against, which is then represented by a percentage with goals for percent (GF%). I then included Corsi For, Corsi Against, and Corsi For Percent as a way to capture the general flow of the possession rather in addition to straight goal scoring.

One thing I noticed right away is that the "battle of the third lines" is well represented here. Calgary, New York, and Seattle are all ranked very highly in total goals for over the last month plus. By pure scoring Seattle and Calgary take the cake, while New York (which is the kid line of Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, and Alexis Lafreniere) is tied for 7th with 10 total goals for. By both goals for and Corsi for though Calgary's Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman, and Andrew Mangiapane crush the competition. The David Pastrnak line out of Boston, and then further down in total goals, the Jason Robertson line in Dallas, are the only lines that come close in goals for percent, but are running significantly behind in Corsi for percent. The only line that comes close in both percent metrics is the Nathan MacKinnon line in Colorado, but they only have eight goals at even strength.

Calgary

In large part these Calgary (and it will be true for the Seattle players as well) all fall into the 40–50-point range and don't see a ton of power-play time. That definitely limits their long-term usefulness, but all are certainly worth a look while on their run. The hottest, though lowest producing season long is Coleman who has put up nine points in his last eight games. He also occasionally throws a few hits. Backlund has been doing it a little bit longer and has 11 in his last 11. He, more so than Coleman has a history of doing this. He will run hot for a few weeks, and then disappear as soon as you take a swing on him.

A bonus for Backlund right now are the peripherals. He has shot 11 times in his last three games, has put up six hits, and takes face-offs. In some leagues he is worth a gamble for those alone, and if he can hang on to the magic a little longer could be extremely valuable. That leaves us with Mangiapane. He is a little hard to figure. He has somehow has managed to go pointless in three straight – even while Backlund and Coleman have still been productive, but did have 13 in 13 prior to that. He has still been shooting which is great, and has higher upside than the other two, but currently seems a bit stuck.

Seattle

Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde, and Eeli Tolvanen have been all but inseparable since Tolvanen played his first game for the Kraken at the beginning of January. They have often seemed like Seattle's most effective line, and like with Calgary, a big part of why we haven't seen their rostered numbers rise consistently is a lack of production on the power-play. The problem there has actually been Seattle's inconsistent power-play and moving pieces around. In their last game (which was played without Andre Burakovsky) both Bjorkstrand and Tolvanen were on what seems to be a top unit (though the units are often a bit more 1A and 1B than is entirely helpful in fantasy).

Bjorkstrand has seven points in his last eight games so has been increasing production lately, and his inclusion on that power-play certainly makes him interesting. The player grabbing any headlines out of Seattle as of late has been Tolvanen, though. He has nine goals in 20 games as a Kraken, and now has points in three straight and in six of his last eight games. The goal scoring (plus the shooting that accompanied it) made him worth a look in some places, but if he can hang onto that power-play time and keep getting some assists to go with those goals he could be a valuable add going forward. Last but not least is Gourde. By far the coldest of the lot, he has no points in his last seven games, but did have a nice run of 13 points in 13 games prior to that. He has struggled to get significant power-play time this season, so given that and absent production at the moment, he would be the lowest on my list.

Arizona

Finally I wanted to touch on Arizona's line of Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller, and Barrett Hayton. It isn't just that they are on this list for even strength scoring, they are officially hot, and have something our Calgary and Seattle lines don't consistently have: top power-play time. Keller has nine points in his last five games though only have three over the prior seven (it was a hat trick though for whatever that is worth). Schmaltz has been on an even longer heater with 14 points in his last nine games. Both are seeing more than 70 percent of the team's power-play as well. Hayton has been a little cooler with six points in his last eight games. He also puts up some occasional peripherals, and some faceoffs if that is worth something in your league.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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