Ramblings: Evgeni Malkin’s Still Got It. Can Patrick Kane Make the Same Boast? … (Mar. 13)

Dobber

2023-03-13

After falling dangerously close to the bottom of the wild card race, the Penguins are really surging, going 7-1-1 in their last nine. Sidney Crosby, who is now 35, has 11 points during that run while 37-year-old Evgeni Malkin has 12. If this season isn't Pittsburgh's last kick at the can with these players, it's certainly one of their last two. Crosby is signed until 2025, but you have to think that if this team doesn't go anywhere in the postseason this year or next, then management will (finally) admit that the Penguins are in need of a rebuild. But for now, this team has been playing great, they have a top goalie in net, and plenty of Cup experience throughout the lineup. It's really hard to see them getting past Boston, Carolina, Toronto, Tampa Bay or the Rangers.

Some tweets I found from last summer after Evgeni Malkin signed his contract.

Malkin's points-per-game average is sitting at 1.06 and last summer I boldly stated he’d bounce back to 1.10. It will be close! He had a pair of assists Sunday and has 26 points in his last 20 games.

Pittsburgh's line combinations Sunday:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
13:2825.6CROSBY – RUST – GUENTZEL00010471.4181064.3
13:0925.0MALKIN – ZUCKER – NYLANDER02-210855.6171258.6
9:1617.6RAKELL – GRANLUND – O’CONNOR0003260.07750.0
6:5213.0CARTER – ARCHIBALD – HEINEN000040.0090.0

That's Alex Nylander, who played in his third straight game after spending quite a bit of time in the minors (nearly two full seasons). He's still only 25 and his expected goals ratio during those three games have been impressive. If this experiment works, the Penguins actually have four very good lines. I'm interested in how this plays out as Nylander has upside – and that upside gets amplified if he plays with Malkin.

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Most overtime goals by defensemen in NHL history:

  1. Brent Burns 16
  2. Scott Niedermayer 13
  3. Kris Letang 11 (after Sunday's)
  4. Seth Jones 10
  5. Mike Green, Erik Karlsson, Dougie Hamilton (9)

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The Rangers got a great deal on acquiring Patrick Kane (since, I'm guessing, Kane left Chicago no other choice). But I worried that Kane's possession metrics wouldn't fix themselves on a new team and that he would disrupt New York's chemistry. He also has a skill set that they didn't need. But…how can they turn down a chance to get Kane for so cheap? They couldn't. And honestly it feels like they are a worse with him than they would be without him. He's a square peg and they are trying to jam him into a round hole. He still has sublime offensive talent, but can the coach give protected minutes to both him and Vladimir Tarasenko?

Kane's xG% at 5v5 is 38.1%, which is 15th worst among all forwards who have played more than 20 games. In each of his last three games prior to Sunday, his xG% 5v5 is 35.7, 42.5, 20.6. Sunday's xG numbers weren't in when I wrote this blurb, but his line's CF% was a dismal 31.3%. When his line (with Filip Chytil and Alexis Lafreniere) was on the ice it gave up eight shots on goal while taking only one. It's hard to say that if the Rangers lose it will be Kane's fault – or even that it would be the fault of management for acquiring him (since they had little choice). But I didn't like this fit for the Rangers when the trade went down and I don't like it now. I like it 'instead of Tarasenko' but not 'along with Tarasenko'.

In five games since Kane joined the team, Vincent Trocheck, Tarasenko and Chris Kreider have two points each.

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The Bruins are hoping that Tyler Bertuzzi turns out to be a better answer for the Patrice Bergeron line than Jake DeBrusk. On Sunday, Bertuzzi saw 5:55 on that line while DeBrusk was there for 4:27 (mostly in the first half of the game). DeBrusk scored a goal in the game and is on a career-best 68-point full-season pace. I don't think this situation is something that will be resolved before the playoffs, so you can probably expect each to see stints there as we head down the stretch. Whoever wins the role for the postseason would be a pretty great dark horse pick for playoff pools. Bertuzzi had just one point in four games since joining the team.

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Tampa Bay is 7-7-5 in their last 19 games. Last week I went on about how the Lightning were stumbling, and although they managed two wins last week – the ship has certainly not been righted just yet.

In his last 10 games, Andrei Vasilevskiy is 3-4-3, 3.41 GAA and 0.889 SV%.

Anthony Cirelli was on a line with Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel and the trio combined for both of Tampa's goals on Sunday. However, Cirelli was the recipient of an illegal check to the head from Mark Scheifele and did not return to the game (there is no update yet). After Cirelli left, the lines were shuffled and Hagel found himself back on a line with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Depending on the severity of Cirelli's injury, things could really take off again for Hagel and his fantasy owners.

The Jets were playing without Josh Morrissey, who is expected to be back Tuesday, and Pierre-Luc Dubois, who is out until hopefully no later than Thursday.

Scheifele's assist gives him 60 points for the eighth consecutive season.

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The Hurricanes have been shut out in back-to-back games – the two games that Jesse Puljujarvi has played for them. That being said, Puljujarvi has been given the top-line treatment:

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Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
12:1124.4STAAL – FAST – MARTINOOK01-17370.015671.4
11:0322.1PULJUJARVI – AHO – JARVIS0009469.219870.4
9:3419.1TERAVAINEN – NECAS – KOTKANIEMI01-13730.071138.9
6:0812.3STASTNY – STEPAN – NOESEN00040100.08657.1

As you can see, Puljujarvi's line created 19 shot attempts versus allowing eight. He was like that with Connor McDavid a lot, too – and that didn't end up translating into points. Andrei Svechnikov missed the game (day to day) with a lower-body injury, opening up a spot in the top six.

Sebastian Aho has gone five games without a point. From what I could dig up (may have missed something), the last time he went five games without a point was in December of 2016 when he was a rookie.

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Vitek Vanecek snapped his slump with a 32-save shutout. Prior to that game, he had gone five straight without a Quality Start and three of those had been RBS. The 27-year-old is signed for another two seasons, and things have lined up for him nicely: the New Jersey rebuild is over. Vanecek is 'the guy' on a team that will be winning around 50 games per season for a couple more years yet.

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Pavel Dorofeyev was recalled and plunked on a line with William Karlsson and Reilly Smith. He picked up his first career NHL goal and assist. Both at ES and both with his linemates in on the tally. I had Dorofeyev 74th last month in my Fantasy Prospects rankings and he's the second best forward prospect in Vegas' system (by fantasy standards). He will move up quite a bit in this month's rankings, which I've been working on for the past week and you should see it up soon.

Jakub Vrana's fantasy value has taken a big tumble this year, but he did score for the Blues on Sunday and he lined up with Kasperi Kapanen and Pavel Buchnevich. It was Vrana's second goal as a Blue and he has 14 shots in four games. His xG% 5v5 indicates that he's struggling since the trade, but he needs a few games to get his feet under him. He hasn't played regularly since last April, so give him time.

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Jacob Markstrom picked up his second Quality Start in a row, and his fourth in his last five games. In the month of March he boasts a 1.99 GAA and 0.936 SV% (six games). His goals saved above average is an impressive +5.860. Finally, it seems to be safe to start dressing Markstrom again in fantasy leagues.

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Nashville rookie Tommy Novak continues to impress, on Sunday picking up his third three-point game in his last 11. He's been playing with Matt Duchene and Philip Tomasino, who picked up a pair of points himself.

Cam Fowler picked up three assists in a losing effort. Fowler has 15 points in his last 13 games, and seven points in the six games he has played since John Klingberg was traded. Fowler is a point away from the career best of 42 that he set last season.

Ryan Strome has six points in his last 20 games. His xG% 5v5 is an abysmal 38.4%. Don't worry, Anaheim fans, he only has another $20M on his contract over the next four years.

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Barrett Hayton and Clayton Keller are really starting to click now. Hayton picked up his first career four-point game while linemate Keller added three points himself. The other member of the line was…Brett Ritchie? He had three points, too.

Hayton has eight points in his last four games. And…I had him on my bench. Yippee!

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Our DFS subscription is now on sale for $74.99 until the playoffs. That's right: 25% off! Order it here!

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See you next Monday.

One Comment

  1. Chris 2023-03-13 at 13:56

    Staying with the Yotes how about Valimaki’s game starting to take shape!

    12pts in his last 15 games , 5 pp , avergaing 1 hit and shot perr game with 37 blocks!!

    I like it!

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