Eastern Edge: Team Goals Trends, Goalie Start/Sits, and Resting Players Like Bergeron and Matthews

Ryan Brudner

2023-04-04

To those regular readers that may not be familiar with my work, I'm a contributor over at GoaliePost.com and will be filling in for Brennan's 'Eastern Edge' for this month.

As some of our fantasy hockey playoffs reached their end this past Sunday, many are still yet to be decided, with final matchups happening this and next week. I will be taking a look at team trends to help inform goalie starts and sits and I'll be covering the controversial topic of resting superstars to help you finish strong.

Team Trends and Schedules

I'm going to bring up a few teams that are really upping their play, or really floundering lately. We'll examine expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF) to help you make some sit/start Goalie decisions. I'm using xGF rather than actual goals scores as it has more predictive power by reducing some of the luck involved in hockey. It's not close to perfect, but it is better than goals scored. These start/sit decisions can really make or break your championship in Category leagues and in Points leagues that punish bad starts. Let's dive in.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins have upped their play immensely of late ranking 1st in the league in xGF (4.54) over the past two weeks. They are really making a push in this critical time to hold onto that playoff spot. They play NJD, MIN, and DET this week. I'd be wary starting Vanecek, Fleury, or Ned/Husso against them.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Even though the Leafs have basically known their seed and matchup for the last two months, their strong play hasn't stopped. They rank 3rd in the league in xGF (3.82) the past two weeks. They play CBJ, BOS, and MTL this week. No one needs to be told to be wary of playing goalies from Columbus or Montreal, but I would actually consider benching Ullmark against the Leafs. Yes, he's been the undisputed best fantasy goalie this season, but the Bruins don't have much to play for right now and the Leafs should keep scoring.

New Jersey Devils

The devils rank 4th in the league in xGF (3.77) the past two weeks. It looks like Timo Meier is finally picking things up and the team is battling for top spot in the Metropolitan Division. They play PIT, CBJ, and BOS this week. Jarry has been very inconsistent lately and will be hard to trust. My caution for Ullmark will also apply to Swayman here (assuming they alternate starts).

Florida Panthers

Florida ranks 7th in xGF (3.48) the past two weeks and are really making up for underperforming in the first half of the season as their Goals Scored per 60 minutes are top 6 in the league, now matching xGF. They are making a final push for a playoff spot and they play BUF, OTT, and TOR this week. If anyone grabbed Cam Talbot for their Finals, not only is he playing the Panthers, but has Carolina who is also top 10 in xGF and Tampa Bay who is top 15. Be very wary Talbot owners. I would also caution starting whichever Leafs goalie gets the start against them.

Low xGF

Here are some teams who rank low the past two weeks in generating chances and I would be inclined to start ALMOST any goalie against them.

Columbus Blue Jackets (rank 27, 2.51 xGF)

Montreal Canadiens (rank 25, 2.61 xGF)

Detroit Red Wings (rank 23, 2.72 xGF)

Toronto plays two of these teams this week. If you have Samsonov, play him with confidence. If Joseph Woll gets a start, I'd be excited to stream him against either Columbus or Montreal.

If you can find a spot goalie streamer up against any of these three teams, play them with confidence. Potential streamers that could get a start against these teams include: Mackenzie Blackwood, Cayden Primeau (confirmed start vs. DET), Ville Husso (confirmed start vs. MTL), Eric Comrie, Ukko-Pekka-Luukkonen, and Devon Levi. I would still be more confident to start a top 10 goalie over any of these guys, but if you don't have that luxury, you may want to stream one of these guys. Just make sure to keep an eye on Goaliepost.com and get a confirmed start before you use one of those valuable adds.

Resting Superstars

This is a phenomenon that has really picked up steam in recent years. If a team has secured their spot in the playoffs and have nothing to play for in regards to seeding or playoff contention, coaches have given superstars nights off to rest – especially if they've been playing through nagging injuries. This is a big reason many fantasy hockey leagues finished this past Sunday rather than experiencing this phenomenon in the final matchup (though, Boston secured their spot a little early and already have started resting their stars). Below are the teams and corresponding players that have the highest likelihood of getting some rest. I've added my own Games Played projection for the remainder of the season on these players. You might need to make some tough decisions down the stretch to maximize your games played if you own these players. Unless you can keep the superstar on your team for next season, you get no extra points for finishing the season with your superstar on your team. Yes, some of us love to go back to past seasons and look at who was on our roster, but winning the championship will bring you much more joy.

Boston Bruins

David Pastrnakhas not yet been given a night off. I expect him to play 5/6 of the remaining games for the Bruins.

📢 advertisement:

Brad Marchand was given an extra night off to rest from his nagging injury over a week ago. I'd expect at least one more rest night for him. 5/6 GP.

Patrice Bergeron is dealing with multiple injuries and has sat out the last two games. Who knows if this would be the case if they were battling for a playoff spot. I predict the aging veteran to play just 3/6 games.

Charlie McAvoy just got his rest night last Sunday. I think he will play the remaining 6 games.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Auston Matthews is a band-aid boy. He is getting healthy and really coming into form lately. I don't think Keefe will risk any aggravations down the stretch. 4/6 GP.

Mitch Marner already got his night off. He should play the remaining 6 games, especially if Matthews sits.

John Tavares will play 5/6 games

William Nylandermight not need any rest, 6 games, but be cautious.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Steven Stamkos has had an injury-filled career. He'll get a rest night and play 4/5 games.

Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman and Brayden Point should all get a rest night as well. 4/5 games for each of them.

Carolina Hurricanes

Brent Burns should get a rest night to rest that veteran body. Likely next week after they secure the division. 5/6 games.

Sebastian Aho will be rested as well. 5/6 games.

Frederick Andersen will get only 3/6 starts, getting time to rest that band-aid body.

New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils

I do think this battle for home ice will come down to the wire. I don't think there will be any rest nights for the stars, though I do think they'll give Halak 2/5 starts and Shesterkin only 3/5 starts. Vanecek may only get 4/6 starts as well. I'd be happy to stream Blackwood if the matchup is juicy.

Good luck to everyone in their fantasy finals! Thanks for reading. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @fantasycheddar

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 29 - 19:03 BUF vs N.J

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
NATHAN MACKINNON COL
JACK QUINN BUF
FILIP FORSBERG NSH

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
LOGAN THOMPSON VGK
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency COL Players
34.5 MIKKO RANTANEN NATHAN MACKINNON JONATHAN DROUIN
17.0 CASEY MITTELSTADT ARTTURI LEHKONEN BRANDON DUHAIME
16.8 MILES WOOD ZACH PARISE ROSS COLTON

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: