Saturday’s Game Props: Marner on the Power Play

Brad Hayward

2023-04-29

Four games Friday night, with two more teams eliminated.  All season, it seemed that just a little more offensive support for Ilya Sorokin (2.34 GAA and 0.924 SV%) and the Isles wouldn't only have been a wild card team. The same fate bit them in Game 6, as their terrific goalie gave up two scores on 41 shots, with the overtime winner coming from a near-impossible angle.  

In Minnesota, how frustrating to AGAIN be not quite among the league's elite, and go out in Round 1. Maybe it feels different, though, with the younger team that GM Bill Guerin has assembled. They'll be back. But the mountain for playoff success is high – the Wild have made the Stanley Cup playoffs in 11 of the past 12 seasons but have no series wins since 2015. They only need to look just past the Canadian border to see a team that has far more issues. 

I'd be crazy not to write about the Florida Panthers. An all-out offensive explosion that we'd normally see in October or November, with the score tied each of five times en route to a 7-5 win that sends the series back to Boston. Entertaining? I guess that depends on your perspective.  But an easy bet for Sunday is that Linus Ullmark doesn't give up six scores. If he plays.  A Jeremy Swayman start would be no more unusual than Alex Lyon playing the first three games.  

On to business.

Gold selection: Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning –  Pick:  Mitchell Marner to score a power-play point (+150)

Marner has been absolutely on fire this series, with 11 points (2G, 9A) in the first five games. He sat out two of Toronto's final ten regular season matches, but in his final ten, he had nine points, and only three with the man advantage, so I can see the oddsmakers' pessimism. Now, I'm not saying the Leafs will find handshakes after the last buzzer – I think this contest will be a barnburner just like Friday's game in Sunrise. I predicted Tampa's win on Thursday, but no game play from me here.  It's a tossup on DraftKings money line.  And rooting for more Game 7s doesn't make me a bad person.  

Silver selection: Edmonton Oilers @ Los Angeles Kings –  Pick:  Kings to win (+145 ML)

Here I go again, betting and hoping for another series to go the distance. I felt this contest should have been far closer than the betting line – Kevin Fiala's return to the lineup makes the Kings stronger, and the desperate home underdog won't be rolled over as easily as in Game 5.   Whether it's Joonas Korpisalo (likely) or Pheonix Copley in net, are they not equal to Stuart Skinner in a must-win?  

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Bronze selection:  Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning –  Pick: Mikhail Sergachev to block 2+ shots (-165)

Ok, here's the easy one.  Sergachev has 18 blocks in the first five games of this series and hasn't been under two blocks yet. I can't say the same for his final regular season stats, only reaching two blocks in three out of ten games.  But with the team's survival on the line, and with him averaging nearly 27 minutes of ice time in these playoffs, I feel this is easy pickings.  

Ok, so I stayed away from the battle between the Rangers and Akira Schmid.  By the odds, New York is favored – but momentum in hockey is a real thing, and the Blueshirts might be feeling that Lady Luck has all bouncing pucks going against them. The first goal is always crucial, but my call here is that whichever team pots the second score will win this game. No, I couldn't find advance odds for that.  ;-)

The first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs is one of my favorite times of the year. But those four-game nights are now gone until next fall. Maybe we can all get a little more sleep.  

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